jburns Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well my devils pulled it out. Now its time for mother nature. Temp still at 24, skies have gone cloudy now, so radiating should cease. Still thinking 3-6 for Randolph County. Radar is looking mighty impressive. Hopefully we can get things going by sunrise and get to enjoy this one in the daylight. I like your confidence. I just hope we can get it going at all. If it does I'd expect lunchtime or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well i got 8 inches from the 12/26 storm, so it is hard to complain much the rest of the winter. It looks like we will get another event where we are below freezing the entire event with a 0.5 inch QPF of a wintry mix. there have been winters where if all we would have gotten was this storm we would have taken it in a heartbeat. Definitely, I got 7 inches, but I really want to get 3" more so we can hit double digits. I guess RDU officially has 7.5" so it's going to be tough for RDU to hit 10" with this storm. I think it's going to be painful to watch the radar tomorrow with heavy precip 50-100 miles s/w of us just not make it to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Allan...Thanks for taking some time to post your thoughts tonight...When do you expect road conditions to begin deteriorating in Centeral NC? You are welcome. Tomorrow afternoon/evening. For Raleigh in particular around Rush Hour if not a little later. Tomorrow night and Tuesday morning will be a mess perhaps all day Tuesday, depening on if we can get a layer of snow/sleet down before the freezing rain comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Per Greg Fishel- 1 inch of snow and 1/10 of an inch of ice for Raleigh. Thats it. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes, you should top out at around 33/34 and then start dropping to mid-upper 20's as your snow is on it's way. Big model difference for FLO. 12z NAM has roughly 0.5" of precip with 2.2" of snow plus some ice. The 18z GFS has almost 0.9" of precip with 6" of snow and some ice. I assume you want the GFS to verify :-). Yes, I'm pulling for the GFS. I was just surprised by the drastic spike in temps. I thought my weather station was just going haywire, but the airport reported almost identical numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Definitely, I got 7 inches, but I really want to get 3" more so we can hit double digits. I guess RDU officially has 7.5" so it's going to be tough for RDU to hit 10" with this storm. I think it's going to be painful to watch the radar tomorrow with heavy precip 50-100 miles s/w of us just not make it to us. RDU airport is officially at 8.3 inches for the year, normal is around 7 inches. At my house I am at 9.2 inches for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 where do some of these people get there certifications from!! Per Greg Fishel- 1 inch of snow and 1/10 of an inch of ice for Raleigh. Thats it. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I like your confidence. I just hope we can get it going at all. If it does I'd expect lunchtime or later. 7:00-8:00 and Im really thinking thats gonna be late by a couple hours over in the SW part of the county. The ground is frozen along with roads. My biggest fear is school system getting fancy and trying to run buses in order to get credit for a day. The roads will dust over in 10-15 minutes with just a routine snow shower. sitting at 24 out here in the sticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well let's hope the NAM is wrong and the GFS is right in getting the precip in a little quicker and the GFS holds onto snow until 6z, although ratio's are dropping fast between 3z-6z. If we can squeeze 2" out of this and a little sleet followed by some freezing drizzle it would be pretty to look at. Better than nothing I guess. WRAL's in house model gives RDU between 3-4" of snow followed by ice... I dont get why they are saying only "up to an inch" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 <br /><img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/facepalm.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> where do some of these people get there certifications from!!<br /> Places we don't have certification from. You know... he could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Per Greg Fishel- 1 inch of snow and 1/10 of an inch of ice for Raleigh. Thats it. Sorry! Why are all of your posts about Greg Fishel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JWXnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you're going to report someone's forecast, try to listen and understand it first. Greg Fishel showed the probability of 1" of snow through 7PM Monday. Then he showed the probabilities for. 1" and. 25" of ice through the event. He did NOT give any accumulations as you suggest. He just showed probabilities. Per Greg Fishel- 1 inch of snow and 1/10 of an inch of ice for Raleigh. Thats it. Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Why are all of your posts about Greg Fishel? his posts on the WRAL website are usually even funnier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WRAL's in house model gives RDU between 3-4" of snow followed by ice... I dont get why they are saying only "up to an inch" How do you know this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 new GFS is much wetter through 12 hours in northern Ala, and nrn GA, some 1.00" and 1.25". Widespread .75", But at this point guess it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 How do you know this? I assume he's talking about this http://www.wral.com/weather/iradar/page/2708786/ Go there and click Futurecast then hit Play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Fish is probably more right than wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the future cast that they show on tv all the time, Fishel always refers to it as the "WRAL in house model.. aka "futurecast" Click on the snow accumulations and hit play, shows between 3 and 4" through Tuesday night in northwest wake, right over RDU. WRAL FUTURECAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Virga is coming into NC rapidly. you can see the dark blue that dumped on Atlanta rapidly advancing NE. Should be to Burger and Robert by 1-2:00 a.m if not sooner,. There are better radars than this, I think people in NC are gonna be suprised how fast this begins to unfold. Models / NWS are way late with onset projections IMO http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Virga is coming into NC rapidly. you can see the dark blue that dumped on Atlanta rapidly advancing NE. Should be to Burger and Robert by 1-2:00 a.m if not sooner,. There are better radars than this, I think people in NC are gonna be suprised how fast this begins to unfold. Models / NWS are way late with onset projections IMO http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true dry air eating it all up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 new GFS is much wetter through 12 hours in northern Ala, and nrn GA, some 1.00" and 1.25". Widespread .75", But at this point guess it doesn't matter. We'll see how the precip holds together once it reaches our neck of the woods. The radar looks really good below us. I hope it holds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 new GFS is much wetter through 12 hours in northern Ala, and nrn GA, some 1.00" and 1.25". Widespread .75", But at this point guess it doesn't matter. I suppose it's good to see the GFS and NAM trending wetter at the last minute. The dry slot south of I-20 is concerning though, I'll trust the mets when they say there is more to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Radars are beginning to fill in for a good portion of TN. I am guessing much of it is verga. It will be interesting to see how far north this can get. 0z GFS qpf looks a little underdone for west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I suppose it's good to see the GFS and NAM trending wetter at the last minute. The dry slot south of I-20 is concerning though, I'll trust the mets when they say there is more to come! If you check out the East Alabama radar on BHM NWS page, you'll see there's much more behind this.....below I-20 looks more like a usual break in the precip than a dryslot. Don't worry and have some fun with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z nam had .428 total for RDU, most recent 00z NAM has .409...biggest difference 00z NAM snow = .037", 18z NAM snow = .255" per the NCEP PTYPE graphs....I wonder if this run is an example of "the NCEP precip type scheme often misdiagnoses marginally sub-freezing snow- supporting temperature profiles as sleet or rain" Edit: Actually I took a better look and RDU is flirting with the 0c line by the time precip arrives this run so this graphic may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Airport Weather Warning??? AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 947 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR A 5 MILE RADIUS OF THE JACKSON-EVERS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ONGOING AND COULD RESULT IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ON CONCRETE AND METALLIC SURFACES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS RAMP CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT ENGAGED IN LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPERATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 uote name='POWERSTROKE' timestamp='1294630831' post='257749'] dry air eating it all up Give it time, The pac man will get full and start spitting out flakes around noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Airport Weather Warning??? AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 947 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR A 5 MILE RADIUS OF THE JACKSON-EVERS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CST MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS IMPACTING THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ONGOING AND COULD RESULT IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ON CONCRETE AND METALLIC SURFACES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS RAMP CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR AIRCRAFT ENGAGED IN LANDING AND TAKEOFF OPERATIONS. I have a friend in jackson and he says things are fine. Looking at the MDOT cameras, it looks fine there. Further north in Columbus they are getting nice snow. ed: sorry thought i was in the obs thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the future cast that they show on tv all the time, Fishel always refers to it as the "WRAL in house model.. aka "futurecast" Click on the snow accumulations and hit play, shows between 3 and 4" through Tuesday night in northwest wake, right over RDU. WRAL FUTURECAST But he is going with the RAH forscast word for word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If you're going to report someone's forecast, try to listen and understand it first. Greg Fishel showed the probability of 1" of snow through 7PM Monday. Then he showed the probabilities for. 1" and. 25" of ice through the event. He did NOT give any accumulations as you suggest. He just showed probabilities. Do you think the general public will understand the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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