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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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FWIW the new 0z NAM for your viewing pleasure:

00znamsnow_SE042.gif

How accurate is this usually? I'm just a regular person (well, that can be argued) that is interested in weather. I know nothing about the terminology and maps though. All I know is that this map has my area right on the line of the light blue and the blue that is a shade darker. I'm guessing that means 7-8 inches? Oh, PLEASE let that pan out! That's what happened at Christmas. They kept saying 1-2 inches and we got 7-8.

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How accurate is this usually? I'm just a regular person (well, that can be argued) that is interested in weather. I know nothing about the terminology and maps though. All I know is that this map has my area right on the line of the light blue and the blue that is a shade darker. I'm guessing that means 7-8 inches? Oh, PLEASE let that pan out! That's what happened at Christmas. They kept saying 1-2 inches and we got 7-8.

Most of the time modeled snow depths are not that accurate but can provide a general idea of where the best snows could line up.

Also, add your location in your profile so we know where you are!

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How accurate is this usually? I'm just a regular person (well, that can be argued) that is interested in weather. I know nothing about the terminology and maps though. All I know is that this map has my area right on the line of the light blue and the blue that is a shade darker. I'm guessing that means 7-8 inches? Oh, PLEASE let that pan out! That's what happened at Christmas. They kept saying 1-2 inches and we got 7-8.

It's for entertainment purposes only. Very little accuracy to be honest with you.

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Are you recommending cutting all of the totals reported on the NAM in half or just those in Central/Eastern NC? Is this based mostly on the low DP's? Thanks.

Well RAH has you down for 1-2", NAM just spit out 7", if you cut it in half, it's more realistic, still high, but realistic.

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Are you recommending cutting all of the totals reported on the NAM in half or just those in Central/Eastern NC? Is this based mostly on the low DP's? Thanks.

That plus the mixing with sleet/frzn. I think there will be less mixing and thus more snow in Winston/GSO area so 3-5" looks good there. For example the 12z NAM gave GSO/INT 4" plus some ice. The 12/18z GFS gave GSO/INT less precip than the NAM and thus had that area with roughly 2" of snow. So if it was me I would average them and your looking at roughly 3", NAM should do a better job with precip than the GFS, theoretically.

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The new NAM shows around 3-4 inches of snow/sleet for Wake Co. The trend is up. Hopefully, that can continue and the precip can sneak in a bit earlier. If the trends are to be believed, I don't see how the NWS can't upgrade the advisories to warnings for a good portion of the area (seems they're already thinking of doing it for some portion of the advisory area).

Well, actually I think the NAM at least RDU, per the soundings does not show hardly any precip through 00z tomorrow and we quickly start to dry out in the dendritic growth region around 3z. So taken literally probably an inch of snow and then freezing rain.

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Well, actually I think the NAM at least RDU, per the soundings does not show hardly any precip through 00z tomorrow and we quickly start to dry out in the dendritic growth region around 3z. So taken literally probably an inch of snow and then freezing rain.

What I find interesting though is the latest runs of the RUC have precip accumulating at the surface at KRDU around or shortly after noon. Makes you wonder which model has the best handle on the arrival here.

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Well, actually I think the NAM at least RDU, per the soundings does not show hardly any precip through 00z tomorrow and we quickly start to dry out in the dendritic growth region around 3z. So taken literally probably an inch of snow and then freezing rain.

It's really amazing to see all of the precipitation associated with this system currently and thinking how quickly it's progged to dry up in our area. I'm sure this has happened before, but it seems really unbelievable.

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Well, actually I think the NAM at least RDU, per the soundings does not show hardly any precip through 00z tomorrow and we quickly start to dry out in the dendritic growth region around 3z. So taken literally probably an inch of snow and then freezing rain.

Well let's hope the NAM is wrong and the GFS is right in getting the precip in a little quicker and the GFS holds onto snow until 6z, although ratio's are dropping fast between 3z-6z. If we can squeeze 2" out of this and a little sleet followed by some freezing drizzle it would be pretty to look at. Better than nothing I guess.

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND HAS SET UP JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWFA

GENERALLY ALONG I-20. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWFA

OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME VIRGA AS THE BAND MOVES IN MOISTENING THE AIR

BELOW...THEN MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THAT A SERIES OF THESE BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH

LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BETWEEN. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY

EAST OF I-26 THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST OVER ALL THE CWFA BY

DAYBREAK. THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF I-26 WITH AS

MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES. EAST OF I-26 SHOULD BE LIMITED FROM A TRACE

TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE INTERSTATE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED

RIGHT NOW FOR MONDAY AS THE SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY BANDS...MOVES

ACROSS ALL THE CWFA PRODUCING STORM TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE

TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN STILL ON TRACK AS WELL.

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Well let's hope the NAM is wrong and the GFS is right in getting the precip in a little quicker and the GFS holds onto snow until 6z, although ratio's are dropping fast between 3z-6z. If we can squeeze 2" out of this and a little sleet followed by some freezing drizzle it would be pretty to look at. Better than nothing I guess.

Well i got 8 inches from the 12/26 storm, so it is hard to complain much the rest of the winter. It looks like we will get another event where we are below freezing the entire event with a 0.5 inch QPF of a wintry mix. there have been winters where if all we would have gotten was this storm we would have taken it in a heartbeat.

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Temps soaring here in eastern SC. After dropping to 25.3 around 8:00, temps are now up to 32.1. Was that expected and what affect it would have on the forecast?

Yes, you should top out at around 33/34 and then start dropping to mid-upper 20's as your snow is on it's way. Big model difference for FLO. 12z NAM has roughly 0.5" of precip with 2.2" of snow plus some ice. The 18z GFS has almost 0.9" of precip with 6" of snow and some ice. I assume you want the GFS to verify :-).

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Allan...Thanks for taking some time to post your thoughts tonight...When do you expect road conditions to begin deteriorating in Centeral NC?

Well i got 8 inches from the 12/26 storm, so it is hard to complain much the rest of the winter. It looks like we will get another event where we are below freezing the entire event with a 0.5 inch QPF of a wintry mix. there have been winters where if all we would have gotten was this storm we would have taken it in a heartbeat.

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