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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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Final Update for me... the ice map is the same, but I tweaked the snowfall map some... mainly to allow for more accumulating snow/sleet further north and east. Most of what falls Raleigh east will be mainly sleet, but it could accumulate 1"+

http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local_jan.html

53v2nr.png

33arnrm.png

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Is any of that stuff on radar over Atlanta actually hitting the ground? My sis is not home and I told her to hurry home because the precip. Is getting close. Did I make the right call or am I causing unnecessary "panic"?

We're under a Special Weather Statement for heavy sleet, so yes.

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Charleston County is on a two-hour delay for school tomorrow.

Dorchester County has no school tomorrow, because it's one of seemingly a string of countless teacher's workdays.

moisture seems to be streaking across a lot earlier than I anticipated on radar returns but undoubtedly this won't reach the surface for many hours to come. SFC TD's are creeping up but already down to 34 here, 37 KCHS with a TD of 9º.

anywhere after about 10 pm might see some IP make it to the ground as the column saturates top/down.

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National Mosaic valid 00:28 UTC (7:28pm EST)

post-382-0-86293900-1294619928.png

18z NAM sim valid 0 UTC (7pm EST)

post-382-0-20218500-1294619844.png

Granted a lot of this over GA is not reaching the ground, but with >35dbz returns about to work into ATL, I imagine we should start hearing some reports from there. The differences in central AL are notable considering there is only a 30 min gap between the two.

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Yep. Hopefully it is further south but it may be radar hallucinations.

All I'm going to say is we are dropping like a rock around here. Weather stations around here are already below freezing. Stormsfury said Summerville is already 34 and precip is funneling in early to saturate us. It's snowing at AbsolutZero's house in Peachtree, Snowing in Carrolton GA already.. this is moving faster and much stronger than expected currently.

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KGSP

657 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM TX TO MO

TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE TRACKS

EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL REACH

OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC

UPGLIDE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE

EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS MOISTURE EXTENDS TO

-10 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...AND THERE IS NO WARM NOSE UNTIL MONDAY

AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...CROSSING UPSTATE

SC OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK. NCEP QPF AND

MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW SOUTHWEST OF

INTERSTATE 26 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS NORTHEAST OF

INTERSTATE 26 WILL LACK NAY OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT...ANY

APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA WILL ACCUMULATE BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREE BELOW

NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING. PRECIPITATION AND

CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL....AND GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Folks, a lot of these posts belong in the obs thread. If you are reporting temps, and the current impacts on sensible weather, that needs to go in the observational discussion (see link below). I know it can get confusing at times on where to post what, but this thread is for the overall tracking of the storm, not current reports from all over the SE. :)

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That frontogenetic band is really starting to crank from birmingham to augusta. I think as that band slowly lifts northwards it will keep gaining strength and widening. It should drop a quick several inches through Northern GA over the next 3 or 4 hours. These bands seem to always overperform out ahead of the main system.

In fact, no model even had that band developing until around 1am... I really think that feature is what's going to give Northern GA and the Upstate of SC the majority of their snow.

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I am really hoping this can start here by 7am.

Looking at radar, I could see you getting going by around 3am Jeremy. My original thoughts this am were that CLT should start around 3-5am, but they could be closer to 1am based on how this is coming in quicker than what the NAM and GFS showed, even the RUC is trending quicker over the last several runs in the very near term.

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The 00 ruc does not show the current returns in NEGA or SWNC. Moving in faster, as noted.

@6 on the 00 a nice -6 is shown at the 850 level into the upstate!

That frontogenetic band is really starting to crank from birmingham to augusta. I think as that band slowly lifts northwards it will keep gaining strength and widening. It should drop a quick several inches through Northern GA over the next 3 or 4 hours. These bands seem to always overperform out ahead of the main system.

In fact, no model even had that band developing until around 1am... I really think that feature is what's going to give Northern GA and the Upstate of SC the majority of their snow.

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On weather.com using the future cast (I know I know) it has moisture over my area...probably raging virga but getting in so early could really help increase our rates I would think.

post-119-0-12333400-1294622690.png

Radar is really impressive and it sure looks like QPF is way underdone simply because its gonna start sooner for most folks. Our local NWS doesnt have our snow starting till 1 pm tommorrow afternoon. Looking at thre radar I gotta think it will be here in less than 16 hrs, I hope this is the case since then obviously the QPF for us ( which is ugh) will be higher and we can actually get something outta this thing.

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The 00 ruc does not show the current returns in NEGA or SWNC. Moving in faster, as noted.

@6 on the 00 a nice -6 is shown at the 850 level into the upstate!

I had stated earlier. I think it has more convection in the GOM on the model that is causing it to lose part of the modeled precipitation shield. The actual radar appears more robust, especially north. The RUC was actually very average here around here on Christmas and again on Friday. I am taking a break from it at the moment. That said, looks like a great event for north Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN.

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00z ruc is hanging onto the s/w even a little bit longer. good news. thru hour 13 still very much intact.

That sounds great for us folks a little further upstream and on the fence.

I admit I have been skeptical but hopeful for Central NC. Things are looking encouraging with the radar trends and latest RUC runs even for this area and of course for a lot of you south and South West of us.

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Does this have ramifications downstream into Central/Eastern NC, or would it more just enhance the precip amounts in western NC back into SC and GA?

both probably. i think eventually the precip will smooth out over nc on the models. the only reason it stops in eastern NC is b/c the American models over shear in these situations. i'm not saying totals are going to ramp up, but smooth out further east.

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Yes, I recalled your post! Great event for the areas you mentioned. And WNC and the upstate also!!

I had stated earlier. I think it has more convection in the GOM on the model that is causing it to lose part of the modeled precipitation shield. The actual radar appears more robust, especially north. The RUC was actually very average here around here on Christmas and again on Friday. I am taking a break from it at the moment. That said, looks like a great event for north Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN.

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