phil882 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Final Update for me... the ice map is the same, but I tweaked the snowfall map some... mainly to allow for more accumulating snow/sleet further north and east. Most of what falls Raleigh east will be mainly sleet, but it could accumulate 1"+ http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local_jan.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is any of that stuff on radar over Atlanta actually hitting the ground? My sis is not home and I told her to hurry home because the precip. Is getting close. Did I make the right call or am I causing unnecessary "panic"? We're under a Special Weather Statement for heavy sleet, so yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here ya go Jason!! http://www.shelbyweather.blogspot.com/ It is all good. Onset looks to be sooner.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is this south of what was progged? I watched an animation and it took a big jump southward.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I can't imagine the Triangle only seeing one inch of mostly sleet with the current radar/NE trend. I know there is a lot of dry air to overcome, but this storm seems like one that could definitely overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is this south of what was progged? I watched an animation and it took a big jump southward.. lolz here we go. It's not further south, don't panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lolz here we go. It's not further south, don't panic. No, I don't mind. It would actually help if it was further South for my area... and compared to tracks it does look a good bit South so far. and @ 1004, it was 1006 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It would be great to be further south. Then it will be more likely for wintry precip, especially snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Charleston County is on a two-hour delay for school tomorrow. Dorchester County has no school tomorrow, because it's one of seemingly a string of countless teacher's workdays. moisture seems to be streaking across a lot earlier than I anticipated on radar returns but undoubtedly this won't reach the surface for many hours to come. SFC TD's are creeping up but already down to 34 here, 37 KCHS with a TD of 9º. anywhere after about 10 pm might see some IP make it to the ground as the column saturates top/down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 National Mosaic valid 00:28 UTC (7:28pm EST) 18z NAM sim valid 0 UTC (7pm EST) Granted a lot of this over GA is not reaching the ground, but with >35dbz returns about to work into ATL, I imagine we should start hearing some reports from there. The differences in central AL are notable considering there is only a 30 min gap between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It would be great to be further south. Then it will be more likely for wintry precip, especially snow. Yep. Hopefully it is further south but it may be radar hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yep. Hopefully it is further south but it may be radar hallucinations. All I'm going to say is we are dropping like a rock around here. Weather stations around here are already below freezing. Stormsfury said Summerville is already 34 and precip is funneling in early to saturate us. It's snowing at AbsolutZero's house in Peachtree, Snowing in Carrolton GA already.. this is moving faster and much stronger than expected currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 KGSP 657 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS... && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM TX TO MO TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL REACH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -10 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...AND THERE IS NO WARM NOSE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...CROSSING UPSTATE SC OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK. NCEP QPF AND MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 26 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 26 WILL LACK NAY OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT...ANY APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA WILL ACCUMULATE BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....AND GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 No warm nose until afternoon? I like it. I think burrel2 and cheeznado were just trying to scare me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I wonder if MUSC will have a delayed start tomorrow! That would be nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Folks, a lot of these posts belong in the obs thread. If you are reporting temps, and the current impacts on sensible weather, that needs to go in the observational discussion (see link below). I know it can get confusing at times on where to post what, but this thread is for the overall tracking of the storm, not current reports from all over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am really hoping this can start here by 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Post all observations in the observation thread. All obs here will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That frontogenetic band is really starting to crank from birmingham to augusta. I think as that band slowly lifts northwards it will keep gaining strength and widening. It should drop a quick several inches through Northern GA over the next 3 or 4 hours. These bands seem to always overperform out ahead of the main system. In fact, no model even had that band developing until around 1am... I really think that feature is what's going to give Northern GA and the Upstate of SC the majority of their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am really hoping this can start here by 7am. Looking at radar, I could see you getting going by around 3am Jeremy. My original thoughts this am were that CLT should start around 3-5am, but they could be closer to 1am based on how this is coming in quicker than what the NAM and GFS showed, even the RUC is trending quicker over the last several runs in the very near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On weather.com using the future cast (I know I know) it has moisture over my area...probably raging virga but getting in so early could really help increase our rates I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The BCS viewing party at Auburn's basketball arena has been cancelled due to the impending ice storm. Auburn might have to stay in Arizona a few extra days if this winter storm turns out as bad as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 00 ruc does not show the current returns in NEGA or SWNC. Moving in faster, as noted. @6 on the 00 a nice -6 is shown at the 850 level into the upstate! That frontogenetic band is really starting to crank from birmingham to augusta. I think as that band slowly lifts northwards it will keep gaining strength and widening. It should drop a quick several inches through Northern GA over the next 3 or 4 hours. These bands seem to always overperform out ahead of the main system. In fact, no model even had that band developing until around 1am... I really think that feature is what's going to give Northern GA and the Upstate of SC the majority of their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z ruc is hanging onto the s/w even a little bit longer. good news. thru hour 13 still very much intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 On weather.com using the future cast (I know I know) it has moisture over my area...probably raging virga but getting in so early could really help increase our rates I would think. Radar is really impressive and it sure looks like QPF is way underdone simply because its gonna start sooner for most folks. Our local NWS doesnt have our snow starting till 1 pm tommorrow afternoon. Looking at thre radar I gotta think it will be here in less than 16 hrs, I hope this is the case since then obviously the QPF for us ( which is ugh) will be higher and we can actually get something outta this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 00 ruc does not show the current returns in NEGA or SWNC. Moving in faster, as noted. @6 on the 00 a nice -6 is shown at the 850 level into the upstate! I had stated earlier. I think it has more convection in the GOM on the model that is causing it to lose part of the modeled precipitation shield. The actual radar appears more robust, especially north. The RUC was actually very average here around here on Christmas and again on Friday. I am taking a break from it at the moment. That said, looks like a great event for north Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z ruc is hanging onto the s/w even a little bit longer. good news. thru hour 13 still very much intact. Does this have ramifications downstream into Central/Eastern NC, or would it more just enhance the precip amounts in western NC back into SC and GA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 00z ruc is hanging onto the s/w even a little bit longer. good news. thru hour 13 still very much intact. That sounds great for us folks a little further upstream and on the fence. I admit I have been skeptical but hopeful for Central NC. Things are looking encouraging with the radar trends and latest RUC runs even for this area and of course for a lot of you south and South West of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Does this have ramifications downstream into Central/Eastern NC, or would it more just enhance the precip amounts in western NC back into SC and GA? both probably. i think eventually the precip will smooth out over nc on the models. the only reason it stops in eastern NC is b/c the American models over shear in these situations. i'm not saying totals are going to ramp up, but smooth out further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yes, I recalled your post! Great event for the areas you mentioned. And WNC and the upstate also!! I had stated earlier. I think it has more convection in the GOM on the model that is causing it to lose part of the modeled precipitation shield. The actual radar appears more robust, especially north. The RUC was actually very average here around here on Christmas and again on Friday. I am taking a break from it at the moment. That said, looks like a great event for north Alabama, Georgia, and southern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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