MillzPirate Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i think the heavier precip ends up further north, like last year when DC wasnt expected to get into any precip during a few snows yet they got hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everything was looking so good too. Almost too good to be true. Honestly, i'm not suprised though. Happens with every winter storm here in the upstate. This will be close- if rates and ratios are higher before the changeeover (to sleet probably then ZR) then some in the NE GA area and the Upstate of SC might see 8"- certainly nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The concrete has gone slick. Roads will get bad pretty quick. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 9 Charlotte: 2-4 inches with 1/4 ice.. Uh..RUC and NAM may differ... somewhere between northeast GA to the CLT region looks like the max spot to me, based on the trends and the runs of the RUC. No doubt that 6" widespread will occur in that general zone, and probably some 10" or greater. Everything was looking so good too. Almost too good to be true. Honestly, i'm not suprised though. Happens with every winter storm here in the upstate. This looks good for the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And that still is under the current totals posted at GSP. Lets see the this WAA continues to be modeled. This will be close- if rates and ratios are higher before the changeeover (to sleet probably then ZR) then some in the NE GA area and the Upstate of SC might see 8"- certainly nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 somewhere between northeast GA to the CLT region looks like the max spot to me, based on the trends and the runs of the RUC. No doubt that 6" widespread will occur in that general zone, and probably some 10" or greater. This looks good for the Upstate. I like the looks of this for our area Robert! I am going to get up around 2 to hopefully watch the skies pour.... with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 22z RUC 850 temps have the 0 line about 50 further north than NAM at 7 am tomorrow. But the RUC has been trending slightly colder with each run (though they fluctuate a lot). 0 line finally hits Charlotte at around noon tomorrow per RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this might be a big sleet bomb for me, which I'm fine with. The radar looks damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this might be a big sleet bomb for me, which I'm fine with. The radar looks damn good Kevin...maybe sleet to start but after that warm nose gets hammered into submission, based on radar returns, you should be all snow for a good extended time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this might be a big sleet bomb for me, which I'm fine with. The radar looks damn good Ya, looking at radar, it looks like a green, pink and blue monster heading our way ! A winter Hurricane ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The latest Ruc also like the NAM, brings precip into CAE too late for much if any snow at this point. Maybe even starting as sleet. I see virga moving into the SC area toward the Lexington area now to saturate us a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have found the RUC to have a definite warm bias in past storms. I say the GFS represents the worst case scenario in terms of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this might be a big sleet bomb for me, which I'm fine with. The radar looks damn good I remember many years ago we got 2-3" of sleet and 1-2" snow on top... Durham NC, i think 1989. Was very very bad on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Kevin...maybe sleet to start but after that warm nose gets hammered into submission, based on radar returns, you should be all snow for a good extended time. I've got ice falling here...do you guys up north of me have rain falling per that map the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have found the RUC to have a definite warm bias in past storms. I say the GFS represents the worst case scenario in terms of warmth. It's had times when it's been too warm, but it's also sniffed out stronger WAA such has one of last years storms. I switched over to sleet earlier than I anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the RUC did a really good job at detecting the WAA in the December 19th, 2009 storm, which switched us over to sleet/freezing rain/drizzle earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 27.0* 12*-DP.... still rising... come on baby, lets moisten up this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is so close you can smell it. We might have something reaching the ground soon. Tony, youre going to get Lookout riled up with that Burns reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RUC for East TN looks more anemic for TN w/ every run. The radar shows a more robust system in my opinion - without convection. It looks like the RUC develops more convection(?) in the GOM, and cuts off the moisture heading north. That does not appear to be what is happening on the radar. Think Phil mentioned something like this earlier. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 For those of you watching the RUC and trends, the only thing I can really see for Upstate to NC is the precip is in here earlier, so the warm advection does get in some areas, maybe near the NC/SC border but by then a lot of the event could be over. Also, it may not handle this much damming well. I can't say b/c I don't watch it that intensely, very often, but it does have a good handle on the current analysis. I just made a graphic shoiwng the 3am, 7 am , 11 am RUC temps, and matched it with current anaysis of the SPC meso site, and its extremely close. The one caveat it may not handle right is the southeast upslope to some degree in the damming region, esp. closer to extreme NE GA andwestern SC regions to the western parts of CLT region, where traditionally its the last to warm up. We'll see, I guess its someting to watch, but don't spend every hour watching for that changeover..Just enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW, 23z RUC just initialized. 850 temps warmer over GA, but west of there in upstate SC and NC, it's the same or even a bit colder. CAD sig from the sfc high more apparent. EDIT: Nice analysis Robert. Watching the RUC every hour can drive you mad, so I suggest everyone limit themselves to it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is so close you can smell it. We might have something reaching the ground soon. Tony, youre going to get Lookout riled up with that Burns reference. He thinks he going to get pounded..nothing can rile him now, I expect. The bulk now seems to be going by to my west, but I I see it is freezing drizzle now and try to spit snow. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan24 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I've got ice falling here...do you guys up north of me have rain falling per that map the other day Nothing reaching the ground yet here in Rome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bladen and Cumberland County (NC) schools closed tomorrow. Dang that was early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By 5 hrs, 0 line the same as before.. and wetter of S TN and N MS/AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Schools here in Horry County (coastal Northeast, SC) are closed tomorrow. I was thinking maybe just a delay. I guess roads may be messy in the morning. Hopefully the warm air will hold out long enough for some snow before all the sleet comes in. Good luck everyone...and thanks to all the awesome disco from the mets...keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WWUS82 KFFC 100002 SPSFFC SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 702 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 GAZ030>035-037-041>050-052>061-066>068-070>073-078-100130- 702 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MODERATE SLEET ACROSS HARRIS...JONES...BALDWIN...PIKE...MONROE...LAMAR...TROUP... MERIWETHER...SPALDING...HEARD...BUTTS...HANCOCK...PUTNAM...COWETA... JASPER...FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON...NEWTON...GREENE... ROCKDALE...DOUGLAS...MORGAN...CARROLL...HARALSON...WALTON...DEKALB... OCONEE...PAULDING...POLK. ..COBB...BARROW...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EST... AT 651 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY BRIEFLY HEAVY SLEET SPREADING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 651 PM EXTENDED FROM ROME...TO ATLANTA...TO GREENSBORO. TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. ROADS MAY QUICKLY BECOME ICE COVERED AND HAZARDOUS IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Obs thread here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8033-january-9-10-winter-storm-obs-thread/page__st__80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 RUC Wow is all over it tonight What model, I'm starting to go dizzy. Beer aint helping Also, 23 RUC at 09. The 850's look great with a loop of -6 in wnc....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Is any of that stuff on radar over Atlanta actually hitting the ground? My sis is not home and I told her to hurry home because the precip. Is getting close. Did I make the right call or am I causing unnecessary "panic"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.