Amos83 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Civil Emergency has been declared south of B'ham, AL. All roads are being closed and only emergency vehicles are allowed out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Beware of the warm nose on this bad boy. Im at Hwy 82 NW MS and all day long i've sat at mid 20's with light freezing rain, sleet. Output hasnt matched what was progged. For some reason here on the river we just never have been able to switch over. Had about 20 mins of snow this a.m. Now i'm hoping i can get something from the back edge as southern AR and Shreveport have switched over. BTW 60 miles NW of me in S AR theyve reported snow all day. Hope everyone else fares better. I'm not sure exactly but if your on 82 in Greenville, you're just a little too much in the strong warm advection. From Clarksdale to Tupelo has been the line, or is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that sucks....hopefully it is close. the radar is (obviously wrong lol) but showing snow as the precip over your area. have you checked the soundings? edit: the nws is apparently expecting a changeover with a couple of inches in the forecast. how much frz rain do you have? Right its been wrong all day, havent checked soundings but i do recall some discussion this morning about the temps being slightly warmer. What im counting on is as the low moves over it will switch like it has in shreveport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I bet the people up north think we're crazy ! LOL Bring on the SNOW !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I called the RAH NWS about 30 minutes ago, basically told them I thought they were wrong. The guy could give me a straight answer when I told him about the radar, the over-performance of the storm, and the RUC, and he had a Ph.D. Those are good folks in the RAH office. I'm surprised thay actually had time to chat, and I'm sure by now they've had experience with folks calling to tell them they are wrong. Not really sure what would be accomplished by doing so, however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does the RUC have a warm bias? Hope so, because the 21z RUC has all Ga., and almost all of S.C. above 0 at 10 a.m.! The closest 18z NAM map is three hours later and it STILL has the 0c line well south of where the RUC depicts it. In fact, it's not until 1.AM TUESDAY, that the 18z NAM 850 line gets to where the 21z RUC has it at 10 a.m. MONDAY!! HELP?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW, the RUC has been trending colder at 850 and wetter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm getting very worried about what the RUC is starting to show for Northern GA and Upstate SC. It has the 850 line jump way farther north than the NAM or the GFS. Right now it is changing the snow over to sleet in athens,ga and anderson,SC by 8am. The NAM and GFS have these placing changing over around 11 or 12. I remember tracking a storm a few years back when the RUC suddenly showed higher 850's than the other models and it came to fruition and switched me over to rain several hours early. Edit: I just saw your post beanskip... it has me worried too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that sucks....hopefully it is close. the radar is (obviously wrong lol) but showing snow as the precip over your area. have you checked the soundings? edit: the nws is apparently expecting a changeover with a couple of inches in the forecast. how much frz rain do you have? just a glaze of freezing rain, hasnt been heavy at all. that along with a bit of sleet. Started off with a quick accum of sleet and snow for20 mins then went down hill from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does the RUC have a warm bias? Hope so, because the 21z RUC has all Ga., and almost all of S.C. above 0 at 10 a.m.! The closest 18z NAM map is three hours later and it STILL has the 0c line well south of where the RUC depicts it. In fact, it's not until 1.AM TUESDAY, that the 18z NAM 850 line gets to where the 21z RUC has it at 10 a.m. MONDAY!! HELP?!?!? RUC does have a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm getting very worried about what the RUC is starting to show for Northern GA and Upstate SC. It has the 850 line jump way farther north than the NAM or the GFS. Right now it is changing the snow over to sleet in athens,ga and anderson,SC by 8am. The NAM and GFS have these placing changing over around 11 or 12. I remember tracking a storm a few years back when the RUC suddenly showed higher 850's than the other models and it came to fruition and switched me over to rain several hours early. Edit: I just saw your post beanskip... it has me worried too! Looking at radar trends, it seems the precip. and storm is making it further north. I wonder if this is the reason for the 850's also moving north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sure hope this all still pans out for East Tennessee. Some models show me in jackpot some to my south in North Georgia. Either way im clearly getting a decent snowstorm from this. I sure would like to wake up and see 8+ inches on the ground! GFS doesn't think I will however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 just a glaze of freezing rain, hasnt been heavy at all. that along with a bit of sleet. Started off with a quick accum of sleet and snow for20 mins then went down hill from there. i took a guess for your area (you can check on twisterdata.com, RUC) - its only out 3 hr on the new run, but it looks like its getter closer to a snow sounding. good luck! waiting isnt ever fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm getting very worried about what the RUC is starting to show for Northern GA and Upstate SC. It has the 850 line jump way farther north than the NAM or the GFS. Right now it is changing the snow over to sleet in athens,ga and anderson,SC by 8am. The NAM and GFS have these placing changing over around 11 or 12. I remember tracking a storm a few years back when the RUC suddenly showed higher 850's than the other models and it came to fruition and switched me over to rain several hours early. Edit: I just saw your post beanskip... it has me worried too! underestimating the CAD. No way our temps are above freezing at 10am. 850's maybe, but not surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RUC does have a warm bias. Storm what areyour thoughts on the radar? Looks really good to me right now, think we get precip earlier than anticipated? Temps should begin to really drop now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This storms going to be a monster for the North Carolina mountains! Day classes at UNC Asheville are cancelled for tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, it is a good strong rush of small pellets. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RUC does have a warm bias. I'd just pay attention to RUC trends rather than what they say verbatim. 22z RUC is trending a bit colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 The WAA at 850 is going to be very strong later tonight- the WSI WRF and the HRR say a changeover will occur all the way up to GSP by just after 12Z- I still think the Upstate and NE Gorgia will get 6" of snow, but those hoping for more may be disappointed unless you are in rthe mountains. I will be in Lavonia, GA later tonight and I would be surprised if I got too much more than 6" there. The above GSP map seems to be ballpark in the lower elevations, may be underdone a tad in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/winter-storm-thoughts Latest thoughts on this plus accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, it is a good strong rush of small pellets. T Good deal Tony!! What's your temp/dp? I see you broke out the special avatar for this occasion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 9 Charlotte: 2-4 inches with 1/4 ice.. Uh..RUC and NAM may differ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Have told my parents and sister in Ellijay, GA to expect 6-10" of snow, followed by ice on top. Regardless, they will probably lose power and schools will be out up there for at least 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is it me or is this low lifting NE? Almost looks like an "eyewall" that came ashore near Mobile and now moving NE. http://www.daculawea...wide_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 9 Charlotte: 2-4 inches with 1/4 ice.. Uh..RUC and NAM may differ... people watch wsoc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good deal Tony!! What's your temp/dp? I see you broke out the special avatar for this occasion! Over at Experiment they had dp still 2.6 Wetbulb 26.6... here my temp is 33. Coming down steady. Yep, the mojo you gave seems to be working! T Edit...man, I'm glad the Falcons aren't playing, I haven't been able to keep up with this game, and it is right in front of me, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSO_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is it me or this this low lifting NE? Almost looks like an "eyewall" that came ashore near Mobile and now moving NE. http://www.daculawea...wide_master.php I've been saying it looks like this storm is pushing further north than models have shown at this hour. Whether it's radar hallucinations, who knows... but very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The WAA at 850 is going to be very strong later tonight- the WSI WRF and the HRR say a changeover will occur all the way up to GSP by just after 12Z- I still think the Upstate and NE Gorgia will get 6" of snow, but those hoping for more may be disappointed unless you are in rthe mountains. I will be in Lavonia, GA later tonight and I would be surprised if I got too much more than 6" there. The above GSP map seems to be ballpark in the lower elevations, may be underdone a tad in the mountains. I'm having a hard time believing that given that we should have some pretty strong dynamics in play and combined with the heavy rates should keep the column pretty cold. I'm assuming this is what the local stations are showing and it shows it switching to sleet here by 1am which I think is virtually impossible. There is a world of difference between these models you are talking about and the gfs/nam for sure but all models often times do a crappy job of determining precip type in these situations since they can't recognize dynamical cooling some of the time. Wouldn't be surprised though if you have an area of heavy snow surrounding by sleet/FZ later on. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The WAA at 850 is going to be very strong later tonight- the WSI WRF and the HRR say a changeover will occur all the way up to GSP by just after 12Z- I still think the Upstate and NE Gorgia will get 6" of snow, but those hoping for more may be disappointed unless you are in rthe mountains. I will be in Lavonia, GA later tonight and I would be surprised if I got too much more than 6" there. The above GSP map seems to be ballpark in the lower elevations, may be underdone a tad in the mountains. Everything was looking so good too. Almost too good to be true. Honestly, i'm not suprised though. Happens with every winter storm here in the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 people watch wsoc? Almost spit my beer out! Weekend mets and morbid curiosity =? . One of those things where you know you shouldn't watch, but you peek between the fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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