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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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I guess I may have been more worried about the warm nose than the precip amounts compared to others, but the 18z GFS showed an encouraging sign to me. This is the 1st run of the GFS that trended a little colder for GSP to CLT- you don't see the 850mb 0 degree line get thrown up into E TN until after 00z Tues....and the RGEM has shown 6 straight runs of all snow. Given the trends, this looks like 80 - 100% of the good moisture will be snow.

I was just thinking the same thing, again we may end up being in the sweet spot for once in a long time. With every trend it looks better and better for us.

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NWS Raleigh, a few hours ago in their afternoon discussion, stated that they believed the Triad area and north to Virginia would not begin to see real precipitation until late tomorrow aftenoon, not even making it to Hwy 64 in central NC until mid-afternoon. They also said that in general the northern areas, Triad included, would only generally see an inch. I also noted that the Blacksburg office just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the NC/VA border counties, with a forecast of 2-5 inches of snow with .10 of ice(this is Mt. Airy's forecast). Kudoes to the person earlier who called the NWS Raleigh office questioning their forecasting abilities.....because something here simply does not add up.

Thanks guys for reading....this is my first post!!!!

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I was just thinking the same thing, again we may end up being in the sweet spot for once in a long time. With every trend it looks better and better for us.

its sort of strange to have your back yard in the sweet spot as you actually go INTO the storm...its almost hard to comprehend lol

as foothills has been stating for days, this looks like the classic 80s set up for the big se winter storms a lot of us remember. and so far is seems to be "acting" like it should, lets hope it continues. if so we are all in for quite a ride

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Not to dampen your hopes but does that map take into account ZR? If it does then sure but if it doesn't your totals would be substantially less. Also GFS shouldn't be trusted this late in the game it's nowcast time!

I don't know what variables twister data use. It just matches the big precip swatch shown on the current RGEM in NE GA and NW SC. I will look at bufkit after it's out.

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Sorry....but 18z GFS and NAM give me a lot of love IMBY! I'm so jaded that I'll believe it when i see it. LOL

Yep, pretty sweet runs for us. What I'm paying very close attention to is the mcs/area of heavy rain along the gulf coast moving northeast. Someone pointed out earlier it merges with our deformation zone and that really should put down some heavy white stuff. Radar is a thing of beauty and it's hard not to get excited at the possibilities.

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Yeah.. It's not a great set up for a powerful winter storm here, but several hours of "heavy" freezing drizzle would not be good.

I was thinking about the freezing drizzle shown on NAM and thinking that the majority of this would probably actually be very fine ice pellets. I would think that the super cooled water droplets would pick up enough impurities on its way to the ground since their formation is pretty high in the atmosphere, and therefore it would be able to freeze before it hits the ground.

So hopefully if the NAM is right this would be more of a sleet event for Wake County.

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Yep, pretty sweet runs for us. What I'm paying very close attention to is the mcs/area of heavy rain along the gulf coast moving northeast. Someone pointed out earlier it merges with our deformation zone and that really should put down some heavy white stuff. Radar is a thing of beauty and it's hard not to get excited at the possibilities.

Yep it appears to be over performing for almost all areas right now...hard to imagine it just dies out. Looks like jumpers on your cliff may just fall into a large blanket of snow.

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The GFS is now up to half an inch of QPF that should be all snow. It's catching onto this bit by bit.

yeah, it is starting to catch on, albeit late... Based on radar and sat, I believe the NAM has a pretty accurate picture of the >0.75" QPF tongue, and precip amounts as a whole. The trends over the past 12 hours are evident on both the NAM and GFS, indicating QPF amounts are slowly being ramped up. I have been keeping an eye on GOM convection today, and aside from that bowing segment this morning off the TX coast, the GOM actually looks in a favorable setup for enhancing QPF downstream... Below are the latest sat graphics from UW and the national mosaic..

post-382-0-25821800-1294611519.png

post-382-0-68531000-1294611555.png

post-382-0-45870000-1294611587.png

post-382-0-94824600-1294611871.png

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Good point. I think ours started this week. Saw a group of Chase High kids out around 11am on Friday. I ASSume the systems will make a call this evening...

we will see!

End of Grade tests and Final Exams are scheduled to begin Tuesday at MHS...not exactly the best of timing. I would hope that our local system will make a call later this evening considering how the model data is consistant that this is going to begin pre-daylight.

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Beware of the warm nose on this bad boy. Im at Hwy 82 NW MS and all day long i've sat at mid 20's with light freezing rain, sleet. Output hasnt matched what was progged. For some reason here on the river we just never have been able to switch over. Had about 20 mins of snow this a.m. Now i'm hoping i can get something from the back edge as southern AR and Shreveport have switched over. BTW 60 miles NW of me in S AR theyve reported snow all day. Hope everyone else fares better.

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the radar is amazing for the Southeast, don't recall it ever looking so good, atleast in a very long time.I think Phil pointed out earlier about how the line of convection is bowing se-nw and actually feeding the whole mass of moisture in Mss. Ala region, and if you look at a 6 hour loop of radar, thats exactly how its played out. The process looks like its about to be complete. From this point I think the axis will stay roughly the same size but over all just begin to tip to more east-west over the next 12 to 18 hours. Either way, an impressive storm, especially for a Nina. I'd love to see the good rates materialize , and would be perfectly happy to sacrifice duration for intensity. The NAM totals may not be that far off, though i do they they might be a little overdone in the Upstate, will be interesting to see. Usually Gulf lows are good precip producers, and a run of the mill one generates widespread 1" amounts, even pockets of 1.5" in some good ones, so if this one overperforms just a little bit, as Burger said, especially early on when the 850's are -5 to -6, then, someone could be looking at a Jan 88 repeat. Hard to say who.

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the radar is amazing for the Southeast, don't recall it ever looking so good, atleast in a very long time.I think Phil pointed out earlier about how the line of convection is bowing se-nw and actually feeding the whole mass of moisture in Mss. Ala region, and if you look at a 6 hour loop of radar, thats exactly how its played out. The process looks like its about to be complete. From this point I think the axis will stay roughly the same size but over all just begin to tip to more east-west over the next 12 to 18 hours. Either way, an impressive storm, especially for a Nina. I'd love to see the good rates materialize , and would be perfectly happy to sacrifice duration for intensity. The NAM totals may not be that far off, though i do they they might be a little overdone in the Upstate, will be interesting to see. Usually Gulf lows are good precip producers, and a run of the mill one generates widespread 1" amounts, even pockets of 1.5" in some good ones, so if this one overperforms just a little bit, as Burger said, especially early on when the 850's are -5 to -6, then, someone could be looking at a Jan 88 repeat. Hard to say who.

im assuming the dry area in SE alabama will fill in soon?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php

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the radar is amazing for the Southeast, don't recall it ever looking so good, atleast in a very long time.I think Phil pointed out earlier about how the line of convection is bowing se-nw and actually feeding the whole mass of moisture in Mss. Ala region, and if you look at a 6 hour loop of radar, thats exactly how its played out. The process looks like its about to be complete. From this point I think the axis will stay roughly the same size but over all just begin to tip to more east-west over the next 12 to 18 hours. Either way, an impressive storm, especially for a Nina. I'd love to see the good rates materialize , and would be perfectly happy to sacrifice duration for intensity. The NAM totals may not be that far off, though i do they they might be a little overdone in the Upstate, will be interesting to see. Usually Gulf lows are good precip producers, and a run of the mill one generates widespread 1" amounts, even pockets of 1.5" in some good ones, so if this one overperforms just a little bit, as Burger said, especially early on when the 850's are -5 to -6, then, someone could be looking at a Jan 88 repeat. Hard to say who.

that is for sure. its just an amazing thing to see the precip stretch basically from ga to tx

and no, i have never seen a radar this good. the last time anything close happened, we didnt have the internet (or i didnt) and so the only time i would see a radar would be on the evening news (and it wasnt usually national). so while i have seen these types of storms, i have never done so in the digital age, so this is just plain awesome!

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Robert any clue as to when to expect a possible switchover from the sleet freezing rain here at HWY 82 area?

Edit it does appear by radar that the dry slot is trying to fill and hopefully become east west oriented which would give me a few hours if when it switches over

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The RGEM does too by the looks of it. FFC's 2-4" still looks reasonable for now, they might need to bring the 4-6" line farther south though.

I'm going to stop looking at the gfc bufkit. Now I'm back to just a half inch and over half as zrain. Whatever it is will start pretty soon as it is building just a few miles to my south. T

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Should be good for you all but i cant seem to get the elusive switchover from sleet freezing rain

that sucks....hopefully it is close. the radar is (obviously wrong lol) but showing snow as the precip over your area. have you checked the soundings?

edit: the nws is apparently expecting a changeover with a couple of inches in the forecast. how much frz rain do you have?

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Man its nice to see the lack of convective elements near the Gulf Coast. There is some thunderstorm activity in the Gulf, but its nothing major at this time... thus we can take out the overemphasized convective models from the SREF mean. Thus, the average is more like near 1" across WNC and WSC. I particularly like the eta models Snowman.gif

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fco56h.gif

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