strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And school will out in Mcdowell and Rutherford then!! But, we will make it up ! Robert, Thanks for all the info...You have answered what question I had following up to that. If it's gonna snow for about 12 hours before any possible transition, then we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I guess I may have been more worried about the warm nose than the precip amounts compared to others, but the 18z GFS showed an encouraging sign to me. This is the 1st run of the GFS that trended a little colder for GSP to CLT- you don't see the 850mb 0 degree line get thrown up into E TN until after 00z Tues....and the RGEM has shown 6 straight runs of all snow. Given the trends, this looks like 80 - 100% of the good moisture will be snow. I was just thinking the same thing, again we may end up being in the sweet spot for once in a long time. With every trend it looks better and better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 in line with the 18z RGEM around CAE i'd say so myself: Not to dampen your hopes but does that map take into account ZR? If it does then sure but if it doesn't your totals would be substantially less. Also GFS shouldn't be trusted this late in the game it's nowcast time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS is now up to half an inch of QPF that should be all snow. It's catching onto this bit by bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS is now up to half an inch of QPF that should be all snow. It's catching onto this bit by bit. Yep always late to the party. Again this is the most golden we've been in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCTechster Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NWS Raleigh, a few hours ago in their afternoon discussion, stated that they believed the Triad area and north to Virginia would not begin to see real precipitation until late tomorrow aftenoon, not even making it to Hwy 64 in central NC until mid-afternoon. They also said that in general the northern areas, Triad included, would only generally see an inch. I also noted that the Blacksburg office just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the NC/VA border counties, with a forecast of 2-5 inches of snow with .10 of ice(this is Mt. Airy's forecast). Kudoes to the person earlier who called the NWS Raleigh office questioning their forecasting abilities.....because something here simply does not add up. Thanks guys for reading....this is my first post!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was just thinking the same thing, again we may end up being in the sweet spot for once in a long time. With every trend it looks better and better for us. its sort of strange to have your back yard in the sweet spot as you actually go INTO the storm...its almost hard to comprehend lol as foothills has been stating for days, this looks like the classic 80s set up for the big se winter storms a lot of us remember. and so far is seems to be "acting" like it should, lets hope it continues. if so we are all in for quite a ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Virga Blizzards are awesome! U can standout in them and not even get wet! If you set your expectations low then it's easy to over achieve! Not wise in business, but in forecasting snow always a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futuremet Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Quick video update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not to dampen your hopes but does that map take into account ZR? If it does then sure but if it doesn't your totals would be substantially less. Also GFS shouldn't be trusted this late in the game it's nowcast time! I don't know what variables twister data use. It just matches the big precip swatch shown on the current RGEM in NE GA and NW SC. I will look at bufkit after it's out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Both the 18z NAM and GFS give me 6-7"!! Now I'm starting to get excited The RGEM does too by the looks of it. FFC's 2-4" still looks reasonable for now, they might need to bring the 4-6" line farther south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sorry....but 18z GFS and NAM give me a lot of love IMBY! I'm so jaded that I'll believe it when i see it. LOL Yep, pretty sweet runs for us. What I'm paying very close attention to is the mcs/area of heavy rain along the gulf coast moving northeast. Someone pointed out earlier it merges with our deformation zone and that really should put down some heavy white stuff. Radar is a thing of beauty and it's hard not to get excited at the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah.. It's not a great set up for a powerful winter storm here, but several hours of "heavy" freezing drizzle would not be good. I was thinking about the freezing drizzle shown on NAM and thinking that the majority of this would probably actually be very fine ice pellets. I would think that the super cooled water droplets would pick up enough impurities on its way to the ground since their formation is pretty high in the atmosphere, and therefore it would be able to freeze before it hits the ground. So hopefully if the NAM is right this would be more of a sleet event for Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, pretty sweet runs for us. What I'm paying very close attention to is the mcs/area of heavy rain along the gulf coast moving northeast. Someone pointed out earlier it merges with our deformation zone and that really should put down some heavy white stuff. Radar is a thing of beauty and it's hard not to get excited at the possibilities. Yep it appears to be over performing for almost all areas right now...hard to imagine it just dies out. Looks like jumpers on your cliff may just fall into a large blanket of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS is now up to half an inch of QPF that should be all snow. It's catching onto this bit by bit. yeah, it is starting to catch on, albeit late... Based on radar and sat, I believe the NAM has a pretty accurate picture of the >0.75" QPF tongue, and precip amounts as a whole. The trends over the past 12 hours are evident on both the NAM and GFS, indicating QPF amounts are slowly being ramped up. I have been keeping an eye on GOM convection today, and aside from that bowing segment this morning off the TX coast, the GOM actually looks in a favorable setup for enhancing QPF downstream... Below are the latest sat graphics from UW and the national mosaic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just starting to snow on NE side of B'ham...I'm thinking we might stay all snow through tomorrow morning...Elevation is helping me as my hous is on the top of a ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone currently getting snow that had very low dew points? how long did it take to saturate the air ? Or is there data out there showing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good point. I think ours started this week. Saw a group of Chase High kids out around 11am on Friday. I ASSume the systems will make a call this evening... we will see! End of Grade tests and Final Exams are scheduled to begin Tuesday at MHS...not exactly the best of timing. I would hope that our local system will make a call later this evening considering how the model data is consistant that this is going to begin pre-daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Beware of the warm nose on this bad boy. Im at Hwy 82 NW MS and all day long i've sat at mid 20's with light freezing rain, sleet. Output hasnt matched what was progged. For some reason here on the river we just never have been able to switch over. Had about 20 mins of snow this a.m. Now i'm hoping i can get something from the back edge as southern AR and Shreveport have switched over. BTW 60 miles NW of me in S AR theyve reported snow all day. Hope everyone else fares better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's some graphics from the "Weather Webinar" that NWS CHS did earlier today (from WTOC-TV). This doesn't include ice and freezing rain accumulation. http://www.facebook.com/#!/album.php?aid=326380&id=57237502362 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 30.4* and 10* DP... still rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the radar is amazing for the Southeast, don't recall it ever looking so good, atleast in a very long time.I think Phil pointed out earlier about how the line of convection is bowing se-nw and actually feeding the whole mass of moisture in Mss. Ala region, and if you look at a 6 hour loop of radar, thats exactly how its played out. The process looks like its about to be complete. From this point I think the axis will stay roughly the same size but over all just begin to tip to more east-west over the next 12 to 18 hours. Either way, an impressive storm, especially for a Nina. I'd love to see the good rates materialize , and would be perfectly happy to sacrifice duration for intensity. The NAM totals may not be that far off, though i do they they might be a little overdone in the Upstate, will be interesting to see. Usually Gulf lows are good precip producers, and a run of the mill one generates widespread 1" amounts, even pockets of 1.5" in some good ones, so if this one overperforms just a little bit, as Burger said, especially early on when the 850's are -5 to -6, then, someone could be looking at a Jan 88 repeat. Hard to say who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the radar is amazing for the Southeast, don't recall it ever looking so good, atleast in a very long time.I think Phil pointed out earlier about how the line of convection is bowing se-nw and actually feeding the whole mass of moisture in Mss. Ala region, and if you look at a 6 hour loop of radar, thats exactly how its played out. The process looks like its about to be complete. From this point I think the axis will stay roughly the same size but over all just begin to tip to more east-west over the next 12 to 18 hours. Either way, an impressive storm, especially for a Nina. I'd love to see the good rates materialize , and would be perfectly happy to sacrifice duration for intensity. The NAM totals may not be that far off, though i do they they might be a little overdone in the Upstate, will be interesting to see. Usually Gulf lows are good precip producers, and a run of the mill one generates widespread 1" amounts, even pockets of 1.5" in some good ones, so if this one overperforms just a little bit, as Burger said, especially early on when the 850's are -5 to -6, then, someone could be looking at a Jan 88 repeat. Hard to say who. im assuming the dry area in SE alabama will fill in soon? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 the radar is amazing for the Southeast, don't recall it ever looking so good, atleast in a very long time.I think Phil pointed out earlier about how the line of convection is bowing se-nw and actually feeding the whole mass of moisture in Mss. Ala region, and if you look at a 6 hour loop of radar, thats exactly how its played out. The process looks like its about to be complete. From this point I think the axis will stay roughly the same size but over all just begin to tip to more east-west over the next 12 to 18 hours. Either way, an impressive storm, especially for a Nina. I'd love to see the good rates materialize , and would be perfectly happy to sacrifice duration for intensity. The NAM totals may not be that far off, though i do they they might be a little overdone in the Upstate, will be interesting to see. Usually Gulf lows are good precip producers, and a run of the mill one generates widespread 1" amounts, even pockets of 1.5" in some good ones, so if this one overperforms just a little bit, as Burger said, especially early on when the 850's are -5 to -6, then, someone could be looking at a Jan 88 repeat. Hard to say who. that is for sure. its just an amazing thing to see the precip stretch basically from ga to tx and no, i have never seen a radar this good. the last time anything close happened, we didnt have the internet (or i didnt) and so the only time i would see a radar would be on the evening news (and it wasnt usually national). so while i have seen these types of storms, i have never done so in the digital age, so this is just plain awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Robert any clue as to when to expect a possible switchover from the sleet freezing rain here at HWY 82 area? Edit it does appear by radar that the dry slot is trying to fill and hopefully become east west oriented which would give me a few hours if when it switches over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The radar has filled the hole in MS in a hour and half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The radar has filled the hole in MS in a hour and half Should be good for you all but i cant seem to get the elusive switchover from sleet freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The RGEM does too by the looks of it. FFC's 2-4" still looks reasonable for now, they might need to bring the 4-6" line farther south though. I'm going to stop looking at the gfc bufkit. Now I'm back to just a half inch and over half as zrain. Whatever it is will start pretty soon as it is building just a few miles to my south. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Should be good for you all but i cant seem to get the elusive switchover from sleet freezing rain that sucks....hopefully it is close. the radar is (obviously wrong lol) but showing snow as the precip over your area. have you checked the soundings? edit: the nws is apparently expecting a changeover with a couple of inches in the forecast. how much frz rain do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Man its nice to see the lack of convective elements near the Gulf Coast. There is some thunderstorm activity in the Gulf, but its nothing major at this time... thus we can take out the overemphasized convective models from the SREF mean. Thus, the average is more like near 1" across WNC and WSC. I particularly like the eta models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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