Lee Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The gfs ensembles are insisting on a much bigger event: Now that outcome we would all take! Shows heavy snow well up the Apps as what you would think may be a possibility with both lows as well as upslope involvement. The latest NAM really shocked me in that it showed a void area of QPF in the upslope area of KY/VA/WV. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good point storm. I'm hoping we will see some snow at the onset here downtown, hopefully we can have things fall in our favor and we can pick up a quick dusting or more, itll be too close to call and it seems like it will come down to a nowcast situation. What time do you think the precip will start in our area? IF the RUC and SREF begin to trend toward an earlier start then I will feel more confident for a larger event, it will be a matter of who gets under the heavy returns as to what you end up getting. not exactly pinpointed that down as of yet but I do believe probably after sundown on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Folks in parts to the south east of here are going to see some of the z devil, and if the amounts trend higher closer to the storm it will be a hammering. Temps cold enough to get those folks down there iced up should protect folks north from the bad hit, I hope. I would wish 1 inch or higher of frozen rain on no one. There is nothing fun about it. Lets hope we all get sleet instead. I'm certainly working on it here, lol. T This is also my wish Tony CAE... 0z GFS 110110/0900Z 33 04010KT 30.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.024|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.02 0| 0|100 110110/1200Z 36 07012KT 27.0F SNOW 18:1| 1.9|| 1.9 0.106|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1500Z 39 06014KT 27.7F SNPL 9:1| 1.3|| 3.2 0.146|| 0.28 0.15|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.02 50| 50| 0 110110/1800Z 42 06012KT 30.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.295|| 0.57 0.00|| 0.15 0.31|| 0.33 0| 0|100 110110/2100Z 45 05013KT 32.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.205|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.15 0.21|| 0.55 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 48 04012KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.134|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.55 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0300Z 51 04013KT 32.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.130|| 1.04 0.00|| 0.15 0.14|| 0.69 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 54 04013KT 32.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.028|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.69 0| 0|100 110111/0900Z 57 03010KT 32.0F UP 0:1| 0.0|| 3.2 0.016|| 1.08 0.00|| 0.15 0.00|| 0.69 0| 0| 0 0z NAM 110110/0900Z 33 05009KT 27.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.6 0.043|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1000Z 34 05010KT 27.5F SNOW 15:1| 2.8|| 3.4 0.185|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1100Z 35 05009KT 27.5F SNOW 17:1| 1.8|| 5.1 0.106|| 0.33 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 36 05010KT 27.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.8|| 5.9 0.102|| 0.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110110/1300Z 37 05011KT 26.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 6.2 0.028|| 0.46 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1400Z 38 05013KT 26.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 6.3 0.008|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1500Z 39 06012KT 27.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 6.7 0.035|| 0.51 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1600Z 40 05012KT 27.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 7.3 0.083|| 0.59 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1700Z 41 05012KT 27.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 7.6 0.055|| 0.65 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1800Z 42 05013KT 28.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.039|| 0.69 0.00|| 0.00 0.04|| 0.04 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1900Z 43 05013KT 28.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.028|| 0.71 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.07 0| 0|100 110110/2000Z 44 05013KT 29.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.020|| 0.73 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.09 0| 0|100 110110/2100Z 45 05012KT 29.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.020|| 0.75 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.11 0| 0|100 110110/2200Z 46 05012KT 29.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.016|| 0.77 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.13 0| 0|100 110110/2300Z 47 05013KT 28.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.14 0| 0|100 110111/0000Z 48 05013KT 29.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.78 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.14 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0100Z 49 05013KT 28.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.012|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.16 0| 0|100 110111/0200Z 50 05014KT 28.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.80 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.17 0| 0|100 110111/0300Z 51 05013KT 28.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.81 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.17 0| 0|100 110111/0400Z 52 04013KT 29.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.012|| 0.82 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.19 0| 0|100 110111/0500Z 53 04012KT 29.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.020|| 0.84 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.21 0| 0|100 110111/0600Z 54 04011KT 29.8F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.016|| 0.86 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.22 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/0700Z 55 04010KT 30.0F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.012|| 0.87 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.24 0| 0|100 110111/0800Z 56 04009KT 30.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.016|| 0.89 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.25 0| 0|100 110111/0900Z 57 03009KT 30.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.012|| 0.90 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.26 0| 0|100 110111/1000Z 58 03009KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.012|| 0.91 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.28 0| 0|100 110111/1100Z 59 03009KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.92 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.29 0| 0|100 110111/1200Z 60 02009KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.29 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110111/1300Z 61 03008KT 31.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.008|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.30 0| 0|100 110111/1400Z 62 03008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.004|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100 110111/1500Z 63 03008KT 31.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.004|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100 110111/1600Z 64 02006KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.004|| 0.94 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.31 0| 0|100 110111/1700Z 65 36005KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.004|| 0.95 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.32 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Alright I'm going to try to go to sleep... We will see how that works out haha! May tomorrow give us good trends and a lot of hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 via Brad on FB around 11:30PM... " Latest snow/sleet accumulations from our Futurecast model. My forecast of 3-5" looking good for the Charlotte area with closer to 6-8" in the mountains and western foothills. The .10" of ice on top of that will be the real kicker early Tuesday -Brad Wow you can really pick up on the French Broad River valley here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maps by the HPC: Amount of snow and sleet forecasted Note: Hours 36 and lower are not included in these images HPC also forecasts less than .25 of ice for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is also my wish Tony I just checked my point forecast and I'm now all snow and sleet through out. My thinking all along. This is just too cold to put me in all that zrain. Now if it goes way wet then I change my mind real quick I've seen what waa can do with a 3 inch liquid assault. There is hope. There is some mighty cold air up there. I've been in z rain off and on on the models. Right now I'm off. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 do we have someone here for the euro PBP? i noticed alot of folks said they were going to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 do we have someone here for the euro PBP? i noticed alot of folks said they were going to bed. Here is the website ( http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html ) that you can view the euro as it comes out. It's starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Uhhh, when's the last Euro run that had the surface low at 1006 as far east as the central La. coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Uhhh, when's the last Euro run that had the surface low at 1006 as far east as the central La. coast? What impact would you think this would have in relative long term for the storm as a whole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Probably none -- I haven't stayed up for the late night euro runs, but what I remember seeing in the morning was a low already weakened to 1010 or so that far east. S/w also looks good all the way into La. at 24. But, could be my sleepy eyes hallucinating. What impact would you think this would hold in relative long term for the storm as a whole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is also my wish Tony Yep that data you just posted.. looks good w/ bufkit app.. that is what i hope for right there if not more snow. GFS doesnt like the snow for us... GGEM does.. so NAM/GGEM vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 The euro not great unless you are in northern AL and TN. Go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Too hard to tell just off plymouth -- 1015 low has survived to the Panhandle at 48 hours. Decent looking 850 and 700 RH, but could be light. 850 temps are similar to 0z NAM except a little colder in eastern NC. Need somebody with QPF access to weigh in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/winter/ski_se_720x486.jpg Latest TWC Map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The euro not great unless you are in northern AL and TN. Go to bed. Ahh so its skips out on folks in WNC? Seems like this run is further amplified, but is it almost too much, like the moisture is going on the west side of the Appalachians? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep that data you just posted.. looks good w/ bufkit app.. that is what i hope for right there if not more snow. GFS doesnt like the snow for us... GGEM does.. so NAM/GGEM vs GFS. Lookout has been impressed with the cold throughout the column. I think we just have to let idea we might have a good cold storm live...until the limbs start cracking, lol. Wintry Mix can be interesting because you are so close to all the possibilities, and you can watch the atmosphere react to the waa and caa by the stuff you have falling. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The euro looks about the same as it has. Showing between .25 & .50 qpf for most of Ga./SC/W. NC. By the time the precip starts to come down for E. NC 850's have warmed and 2m temps have warmed for RDU east and looks like rain. But this is not the time to use the euro. So for those down south I wouldn't worry about the euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 QPF less than .5 for everyone except northern AL western/central TN, south/central GA and coastal SC. Here it would be 2" of snow and maybe .2 of ice. Meh. I will continue my belief that the qpf on the Euro is not its strong suit. Maybe I am wish forecasting, I would have liked it better if it came i wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 <---- is in Northern AL, what did the euro show? about .5, mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 UKMET wetter than the Euro- go here to view: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The gfs ensembles are insisting on a much bigger event: Jeremy, I went back through the Jan 88 and the Feb 2004 maps to find similarities. I tell ya man...this is looking more and more like a 74 to 85 corridor special. If I was a betting man, we will prob see some .75-1.00" totals showing up on model runs tomorrow for southwest sections of the Carolinas. Trends, climo and analogs are all pointing in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Going to bed- I like the trend on the RUC, short wave stronger at 18 hrs than the GFS and NAM at that time. See you guys tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what y'all think about this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maybe it's just me, but I'm rather confused at the difference between those maps. The first one seems to match the radar/RUC/SREF trends but the second one has the looks of the Euro (to an extent). Someone mind clearing this up for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what y'all think about this: Beautiful. Heavier precip will at least temporarily thwart that warm nose with dynamical cooling. This thing could still be great for a lot of us. It's about nowcast time and Tejas is lookin prime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NWS updated map for Tennessee!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's the next frame. Ah thank you. Rarely do I view those models so I wasn't sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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