WeatherNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I really need to get bufkit on this comp. What does it have for FAY and RDU? Fort Bragg would be a mess, this is the 18z NAM, closest set to Southern Pines http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Amazing that this is going to be a 12hr storm that dumps almost an inch per hour. We had to have close to those rates in March of 2009, so this could just be incredible to watch especially since it's going to be during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM bufkit totals: SC: 10.8" GSP 12.4" AND 1.8"(.34 ZR) CAE NC: 9.2" CLT 6.0" HKY 8.4" AVL 2.7"(.21ZR) INT 2.3"(.19ZR) GSO 1.1"(.23ZR) RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Fort Bragg would be a mess, this is the 18z NAM, closest set to Southern Pines http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html 21:1 ratios...that's some intense snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Less of a warm nose on this run -- Shelby (KEHO) all snow through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Although temp.'s are near the projections, TD's are running a bit lower than recent NAM runs have projected along the ILM-SSI corridor. Also, winds are a little more northerly (less easterly component) vs. the projections. That tells me that the cold/dry air is likely going to hang tougher than what the NAM projected and could have implications for late tonight into tomorrow when the precip. makes it to this region. Although this drier air would eat up more of the precip. to evap., this would also probably result in a longer duration of ZR than has been projected. Let's see if this persists into this evening. Meanwhile, if the RUC initialization is accurate, the GOM sfc low is continuing to track a good bit (say 100 miles or so) further south than the model consensus has had. Perhaps, this is loosely related to the cold/dry air to the north hanging extra tough over the SE. Should this track continue to be south of projections, it would most likely imply colder temp.'s to its north and more wintry precip. for the SE coastal areas. 19Z RUC init.: Stormsfury, if you're reading this, I'd love to hear what you have to say! 100 miles south with the SFC low moving due east has implications on precipitation types and amounts. This storm may play out the reverse where heavier precipitation rates actually draw down WARMER AIR versus combating the warm nosing above the surface. I agree with KCHS now issuing Winter storm warnings for inland coastal counties expecting up to an inch of snow/sleet with potentials for up to a .25 inch of ice now. I would NOT be surprised if the temperatures fall below expected lows given the amount of evaporation cooling that will have to take place for the large dewpoint depressions to be overcome and in essence could be much colder overall, which in thus heightens the chances for damaging ice accumulations. It also has an opportunity to snow a little more time as well. the cold dense surface air would force the SFC low track further south as it cannot move through the wedge but either has to go around or transfer over. This is starting to have shades of January 1988 all over again, just different part of the day (JAN 1988 started in the daylight hours), this starts overnight tonight. Generally during diurnal periods, evaporational cooling is MORE EFFECTIVE versus night where clouds tend to insulate any surface based heating in wedge setups. The January 1988 storm here the temperature started at 30, with a TD of 3. Evaporational cooling brought the temperature down 10 degrees (I think the temperature crept up a little, but quickly fell down into the low to mid 20's, starting as sleet for many hours, with accumulations) before changing to ZR but remained ZR for many hours. Very heavy precip rates later that evening actually like I said before in a different post allowed latent heat processes to prevent all of the heavy rates to accrete, thus ice accretions remained AOB .25" through this area. This time around, it's very possible heavier rates may not occur, and might end up seeing more sleet and ZR that accretes quickly especially if my projected dropoff temperature of 25-27 is reached locally. continual preciptation will only serve to hamper much if any temperature recovery despite warm air aloft and marinal influences. The AIR TEMPERATURE 40 MILES OFFSHORE from an earlier BUOY REPORT WAS ALSO 36º with SST's at 49! 40 MILES OFFSHORE!!!! AS A MATTER OF FACT, KCHL (WHICH IS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AT WATERFRONT PARK, THE TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER THAN KCHS ALL DAY. ONLY MADE IT TO 37 OR 38 BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS) I see some model solutions with a little more pronounced 850mb low which might be serving to up the totals across northern AL/GA, NW SC into SW NC. I'm still ingesting information as I just got off from work and honestly at least locally I'm not straying too much with the exception now that I'm very concerned for damaging ice accretions of .25" with possibly up to 1"-2" of snow/sleet if the moisture band out ahead can get in here before the warm nosing starts to fight in sometime on Monday morning, early afternoon. FOR EVERYONE IN GENERAL, THE PRECIP RATES ARE GOING TO INITIALLY COOL THE COLUMN TOP DOWN SO THERE WILL BE MESOSCALE ISOTHERMS WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES COMMENCE, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 3-5C COLDER THAN OTHER AREAS EMBEDDED THAT HAVE LIGHTER RATES TO START. KSSI (Saint Simons Island only made it to 41 or 42 today from what I gather, which was also colder, which is demonstrating the strength of the wedge at the surface). KEY QUESTION AT THE SURFACE IS THE HIGH DOES RETREAT BUT IT APPEARS TO DO SO ON A RETROGRADE FASHION, SO DOES THAT ALLOW TO KEEP WINDS AT THE SURFACE MORE NORTHERLY VS NORTHEASTERLY. More northerly component will only continue to reinforce the cold air at the surface and prevent marinal influences at least at the surface from protruding far inland vs a more northeasterly component greater than a 45º angle. Generally decent wedging configurations here drain cold air on a NNE fashion which makes for very stubborn wedging and something I think KCHS has taken account for with the issuance of the WSW for inland coastal counties and WWA's in the immediate coastal counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM bufkit totals: SC: 10.8" GSP 12.4" AND 1.8"(.34 ZR) CAE NC: 9.2" CLT 6.0" HKY 8.4" AVL 2.7"(.21ZR) INT 2.3"(.19ZR) GSO 1.1"(.23ZR) RDU What kind of ratios we looking at? I'm guessing somewhere around 12:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I really need to get bufkit on this comp. What does it have for FAY and RDU? I just use the bufkit warehouse page: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Still painting that heavy pop around AND....Man, someone is going to be creamed in the upstate.. 18z NAM bufkit totals: SC: 10.8" GSP 12.4" AND 1.8"(.34 ZR) CAE NC: 9.2" CLT 6.0" HKY 8.4" AVL 2.7"(.21ZR) INT 2.3"(.19ZR) GSO 1.1"(.23ZR) RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM bufkit totals: SC: 10.8" GSP 12.4" AND 1.8"(.34 ZR) CAE NC: 9.2" CLT 6.0" HKY 8.4" AVL 2.7"(.21ZR) INT 2.3"(.19ZR) GSO 1.1"(.23ZR) RDU 1.1"? We're gettin screwed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll be pulling for you guys to the South to get a foot plus! Up here in the Northern Foothills where Big Frosty, Powerstroke, and Me are from we are just to far away and it is dry,dry,dry here! I think it's going to be to much for the moisture to overcome. Plus we will have a weakening storm as we get closer to our area . My area I think we will be lucky to see 2" of snow, and no ICE. There are always winners and losers Enjoy this ones yours! But Powerstroke will go south to drop plows if nothing here Of course not going no where until we see what this thing does. I believe dry air will soak it up as usual. We have had sonme record breaking Virga Blizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What kind of ratios we looking at? I'm guessing somewhere around 12:1? ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/0700Z 13 VRB01KT 30.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110110/0800Z 14 13003KT 29.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110110/0900Z 15 13005KT 25.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.2 0.016|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1000Z 16 08004KT 25.9F SNOW 22:1| 2.1|| 2.3 0.098|| 0.11 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1100Z 17 06005KT 25.9F SNOW 21:1| 1.4|| 3.7 0.063|| 0.18 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1200Z 18 07005KT 25.7F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 4.7 0.051|| 0.23 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1300Z 19 05006KT 25.7F SNOW 17:1| 1.6|| 6.4 0.094|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1400Z 20 05008KT 25.7F SNOW 15:1| 0.8|| 7.1 0.051|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1500Z 21 04010KT 25.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 7.4 0.028|| 0.40 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1600Z 22 04010KT 25.9F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 7.8 0.043|| 0.44 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1700Z 23 05010KT 25.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.2|| 8.0 0.039|| 0.48 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/1800Z 24 05010KT 26.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 8.1 0.031|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110110/1900Z 25 05010KT 26.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 8.4 0.039|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/2000Z 26 05011KT 26.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 8.6 0.047|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110110/2100Z 27 04011KT 26.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 8.6 0.055|| 0.66 0.00|| 0.00 0.06|| 0.06 0| 0|100 110110/2200Z 28 04011KT 26.2F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 8.8 0.039|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 110110/2300Z 29 04011KT 25.9F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 9.0 0.039|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 110111/0000Z 30 04011KT 25.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.1|| 9.1 0.028|| 0.76 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at hr 6 the precip is south of what the current radar indicates in arkansas. dont know if that means anything or not. Lot of help this run would be. But Its not much benefit inside 24 anyway. Time to let whats gonna happen/happen. Heres to my 3-6 for the BY verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks...two inches in an hour with 22:1 ratios sweet lordy. Too bad it tapers off so quick. This might end up being one epic storm. I'll be taking lots of photographs and video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sorry....but 18z GFS and NAM give me a lot of love IMBY! I'm so jaded that I'll believe it when i see it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM bufkit totals: SC: 10.8" GSP 12.4" AND 1.8"(.34 ZR) CAE NC: 9.2" CLT 6.0" HKY 8.4" AVL 2.7"(.21ZR) INT 2.3"(.19ZR) GSO 1.1"(.23ZR) RDU Now how does this make sense? Clt vs. GSO. Calling for 6:1 snow ratios in GSO? How in the world are we going to get a warm nose before CLT? Or is it just that the snow rate in CLT is going to be so much higher during the critical period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sorry....but 18z GFS and NAM give me a lot of love IMBY! I'm so jaded that I'll believe it when i see it. LOL as soon as i read this i checked and my jaw just dropped open lol. good grief you are right - that is awesome...and looks more like the heavy amounts that were showing up the other day. this is sweet! edit: just went back and looked again. i am sorry, i just dont know that i believe what its showing...i will certainly have to see it to believe it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This says 2-3 inches of snow for RDU. Though with good rates maybe we can squeak out close to 4 before going over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Holy crap that is suggesting nearly 8" and yeah those ratios would be insane. Of course I have to take that with quite a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pretty neat tool here...expect this to light up in a few hours in Charlotte... http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=cwp&ctid=1946 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sorry....but 18z GFS and NAM give me a lot of love IMBY! I'm so jaded that I'll believe it when i see it. LOL and it held onto the cold air longer. im in cumming,ga btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wooo GFS a little more snow before going to a ton of ice. k im leaving state. definitely gonna be an ice storm in CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pretty neat tool here...expect this to light up in a few hours in Charlotte... http://www.radiorefe...n=cwp&ctid=1946 Wow thanks that will be fun to listen to tomorrow morning although a little bit scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What is your take on the speed of the 700 rh coming through? I think for our area it will be about a 12 to 14 hour event with good snow rates at times, and then followed by a 12 to 18 hour period of light freezing drizzle and mist. Once it comes into view more on the RUC I think we'll know more, but thats how it usually goes here. (except this time all models have prolonged ZR) Amazing that this is going to be a 12hr storm that dumps almost an inch per hour. We had to have close to those rates in March of 2009, so this could just be incredible to watch especially since it's going to be during the day. Calm down! LOL I do think we'll get into good rates, of course not every hour will give 1" per hour though, that would be something. Usually there are breaks and lulls, and somebody has to watch for the dryslot, probably me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I guess I may have been more worried about the warm nose than the precip amounts compared to others, but the 18z GFS showed an encouraging sign to me. This is the 1st run of the GFS that trended a little colder for GSP to CLT- you don't see the 850mb 0 degree line get thrown up into E TN until after 00z Tues....and the RGEM has shown 6 straight runs of all snow. Given the trends, this looks like 80 - 100% of the good moisture will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Robert, Thanks for all the info...You have answered what question I had following up to that. If it's gonna snow for about 12 hours before any possible transition, then we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow thanks that will be fun to listen to tomorrow morning although a little bit scary. Not if you are fire and rescue--like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 in line with the 18z RGEM around CAE i'd say so myself: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Both the 18z NAM and GFS give me 6-7"!! Now I'm starting to get excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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