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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4

Cheeznado

By Cheeznado,
in Southeastern States

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Although temp.'s are near the projections, TD's are running a bit lower than recent NAM runs have projected along the ILM-SSI corridor. Also, winds are a little more northerly (less easterly component) vs. the projections. That tells me that the cold/dry air is likely going to hang tougher than what the NAM projected and could have implications for late tonight into tomorrow when the precip. makes it to this region. Although this drier air would eat up more of the precip. to evap., this would also probably result in a longer duration of ZR than has been projected. Let's see if this persists into this evening.

Meanwhile, if the RUC initialization is accurate, the GOM sfc low is continuing to track a good bit (say 100 miles or so) further south than the model consensus has had. Perhaps, this is loosely related to the cold/dry air to the north hanging extra tough over the SE. Should this track continue to be south of projections, it would most likely imply colder temp.'s to its north and more wintry precip. for the SE coastal areas.

19Z RUC init.:

post-882-0-11839900-1294603522.gif

Stormsfury, if you're reading this, I'd love to hear what you have to say!

100 miles south with the SFC low moving due east has implications on precipitation types and amounts. This storm may play out the reverse where heavier precipitation rates actually draw down WARMER AIR versus combating the warm nosing above the surface. I agree with KCHS now issuing Winter storm warnings for inland coastal counties expecting up to an inch of snow/sleet with potentials for up to a .25 inch of ice now. I would NOT be surprised if the temperatures fall below expected lows given the amount of evaporation cooling that will have to take place for the large dewpoint depressions to be overcome and in essence could be much colder overall, which in thus heightens the chances for damaging ice accumulations. It also has an opportunity to snow a little more time as well. the cold dense surface air would force the SFC low track further south as it cannot move through the wedge but either has to go around or transfer over. This is starting to have shades of January 1988 all over again, just different part of the day (JAN 1988 started in the daylight hours), this starts overnight tonight. Generally during diurnal periods, evaporational cooling is MORE EFFECTIVE versus night where clouds tend to insulate any surface based heating in wedge setups. The January 1988 storm here the temperature started at 30, with a TD of 3. Evaporational cooling brought the temperature down 10 degrees (I think the temperature crept up a little, but quickly fell down into the low to mid 20's, starting as sleet for many hours, with accumulations) before changing to ZR but remained ZR for many hours. Very heavy precip rates later that evening actually like I said before in a different post allowed latent heat processes to prevent all of the heavy rates to accrete, thus ice accretions remained AOB .25" through this area. This time around, it's very possible heavier rates may not occur, and might end up seeing more sleet and ZR that accretes quickly especially if my projected dropoff temperature of 25-27 is reached locally. continual preciptation will only serve to hamper much if any temperature recovery despite warm air aloft and marinal influences. The AIR TEMPERATURE 40 MILES OFFSHORE from an earlier BUOY REPORT WAS ALSO 36º with SST's at 49! 40 MILES OFFSHORE!!!! AS A MATTER OF FACT, KCHL (WHICH IS DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AT WATERFRONT PARK, THE TEMPERATURE WAS COLDER THAN KCHS ALL DAY. ONLY MADE IT TO 37 OR 38 BASED ON HOURLY OBSERVATIONS)

I see some model solutions with a little more pronounced 850mb low which might be serving to up the totals across northern AL/GA, NW SC into SW NC. I'm still ingesting information as I just got off from work and honestly at least locally I'm not straying too much with the exception now that I'm very concerned for damaging ice accretions of .25" with possibly up to 1"-2" of snow/sleet if the moisture band out ahead can get in here before the warm nosing starts to fight in sometime on Monday morning, early afternoon.

FOR EVERYONE IN GENERAL, THE PRECIP RATES ARE GOING TO INITIALLY COOL THE COLUMN TOP DOWN SO THERE WILL BE MESOSCALE ISOTHERMS WHERE HEAVIER PRECIP RATES COMMENCE, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE 850MB TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 3-5C COLDER THAN OTHER AREAS EMBEDDED THAT HAVE LIGHTER RATES TO START. KSSI (Saint Simons Island only made it to 41 or 42 today from what I gather, which was also colder, which is demonstrating the strength of the wedge at the surface).

KEY QUESTION AT THE SURFACE IS THE HIGH DOES RETREAT BUT IT APPEARS TO DO SO ON A RETROGRADE FASHION, SO DOES THAT ALLOW TO KEEP WINDS AT THE SURFACE MORE NORTHERLY VS NORTHEASTERLY. More northerly component will only continue to reinforce the cold air at the surface and prevent marinal influences at least at the surface from protruding far inland vs a more northeasterly component greater than a 45º angle. Generally decent wedging configurations here drain cold air on a NNE fashion which makes for very stubborn wedging and something I think KCHS has taken account for with the issuance of the WSW for inland coastal counties and WWA's in the immediate coastal counties.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

I'll be pulling for you guys to the South to get a foot plus!

Up here in the Northern Foothills where Big Frosty, Powerstroke, and Me are from we are just to far away and it is dry,dry,dry here! I think it's going to be to much for the moisture to overcome. Plus we will have a weakening storm as we get closer to our area . My area I think we will be lucky to see 2" of snow, and no ICE. There are always winners and losers

Enjoy this ones yours!Snowman.gifSnowman.gif

But Powerstroke will go south to drop plows if nothing hereweight_lift.gif Of course not going no where until we see what this thing does. I believe dry air will soak it up as usual. We have had sonme record breaking Virga Blizzards

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

What kind of ratios we looking at? I'm guessing somewhere around 12:1?

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/0700Z  13  VRB01KT  30.0F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0800Z  14  13003KT  29.5F           0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.000|| 0.00     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00     0|  0|  0
110110/0900Z  15  13005KT  25.7F  SNOW    13:1| 0.2|| 0.2    0.016|| 0.02     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1000Z  16  08004KT  25.9F  SNOW    22:1| 2.1|| 2.3    0.098|| 0.11     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1100Z  17  06005KT  25.9F  SNOW    21:1| 1.4|| 3.7    0.063|| 0.18     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1200Z  18  07005KT  25.7F  SNOW    20:1| 1.0|| 4.7    0.051|| 0.23     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1300Z  19  05006KT  25.7F  SNOW    17:1| 1.6|| 6.4    0.094|| 0.32     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1400Z  20  05008KT  25.7F  SNOW    15:1| 0.8|| 7.1    0.051|| 0.37     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1500Z  21  04010KT  25.9F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 7.4    0.028|| 0.40     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1600Z  22  04010KT  25.9F  SNOW     8:1| 0.3|| 7.8    0.043|| 0.44     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1700Z  23  05010KT  25.9F  SNOW     6:1| 0.2|| 8.0    0.039|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/1800Z  24  05010KT  26.2F  SNOW     5:1| 0.2|| 8.1    0.031|| 0.52     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
110110/1900Z  25  05010KT  26.4F  SNOW     5:1| 0.2|| 8.4    0.039|| 0.56     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2000Z  26  05011KT  26.4F  SNOW     5:1| 0.2|| 8.6    0.047|| 0.60     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
110110/2100Z  27  04011KT  26.4F  FZRA     0:1| 0.0|| 8.6    0.055|| 0.66     0.00|| 0.00    0.06|| 0.06     0|  0|100
110110/2200Z  28  04011KT  26.2F  SNOW     5:1| 0.2|| 8.8    0.039|| 0.70     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.06   100|  0|  0
110110/2300Z  29  04011KT  25.9F  SNOW     5:1| 0.2|| 9.0    0.039|| 0.74     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.06   100|  0|  0
110111/0000Z  30  04011KT  25.7F  SNOW     5:1| 0.1|| 9.1    0.028|| 0.76     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.06   100|  0|  0

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kvegas-wx

kvegas-wx

Posted
Posted

18z NAM bufkit totals:

SC:

10.8" GSP

12.4" AND

1.8"(.34 ZR) CAE

NC:

9.2" CLT

6.0" HKY

8.4" AVL

2.7"(.21ZR) INT

2.3"(.19ZR) GSO

1.1"(.23ZR) RDU

Now how does this make sense? Clt vs. GSO. Calling for 6:1 snow ratios in GSO? How in the world are we going to get a warm nose before CLT? Or is it just that the snow rate in CLT is going to be so much higher during the critical period?

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Sorry....but 18z GFS and NAM give me a lot of love IMBY! I'm so jaded that I'll believe it when i see it. LOL

as soon as i read this i checked and my jaw just dropped open lol. good grief you are right - that is awesome...and looks more like the heavy amounts that were showing up the other day. this is sweet!

edit: just went back and looked again. i am sorry, i just dont know that i believe what its showing...i will certainly have to see it to believe it as well

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

What is your take on the speed of the 700 rh coming through?

I think for our area it will be about a 12 to 14 hour event with good snow rates at times, and then followed by a 12 to 18 hour period of light freezing drizzle and mist. Once it comes into view more on the RUC I think we'll know more, but thats how it usually goes here. (except this time all models have prolonged ZR)

Amazing that this is going to be a 12hr storm that dumps almost an inch per hour. We had to have close to those rates in March of 2009, so this could just be incredible to watch especially since it's going to be during the day.

Calm down! LOL I do think we'll get into good rates, of course not every hour will give 1" per hour though, that would be something. Usually there are breaks and lulls, and somebody has to watch for the dryslot, probably me.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

I guess I may have been more worried about the warm nose than the precip amounts compared to others, but the 18z GFS showed an encouraging sign to me. This is the 1st run of the GFS that trended a little colder for GSP to CLT- you don't see the 850mb 0 degree line get thrown up into E TN until after 00z Tues....and the RGEM has shown 6 straight runs of all snow. Given the trends, this looks like 80 - 100% of the good moisture will be snow.

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