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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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Its tricky up there- depends on what you define as the "Metro" The SREF and the WSI WRF model all have mixing issues- some of the accumulations might be sleet. I will probably be traveling to Lavonia, GA up I-85 to make sure we get in the much better chance of heavy snow.

Do you think the FFC forecast is spoton?

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I don't like what the 18z NAM bufkit is showing for RDU. Almost half an inch liquid equivalent of "heavy" freezing drizzle. A "heavy" freezing drizzle would coat everything. It keeps the boundary layer dry for RDU up until the point at which the dendritic growth zone dries up.

No worries...Just an advisory:)

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I just looked at the Bufkit sounding off of the 18z NAM for Greensboro. It has really bumped up the total precip. It's up to .55 for the storm. However, .22 is FREEZING RAIN and the snow ratios are terrible. Alot of 6:1 showing up. I'm also surprised that it is showing no accumulating sleet. I live about 30 miles south of the airport which should translate to another tenth of an inch of liquid. I'm wondering if that will be snow or more freezing rain.:yikes: Either way, I really think that Randolph and Davidson counties should be in a Winter Storm Warning instead of an advisory. If I wasn't completely sold on that, I would have left the Watch in place for a few extra hours. Here's a link to the sounding:

NAM 18z sounding for GSO

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Foothills, I got a question that maybe you can answer...

GSP has harked in their discussions all day that at some point late Monday, the moisture at the dendric growth level will begin to dry out transitioning everyone to light freezing rain.

My question is...When exactly is that supposed to happen?

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I just looked at the Bufkit sounding off of the 18z NAM for Greensboro. It has really bumped up the total precip. It's up to .55 for the storm. However, .22 is FREEZING RAIN and the snow ratios are terrible. Alot of 6:1 showing up. I'm also surprised that it is showing no accumulating sleet. I live about 30 miles south of the airport which should translate to another tenth of an inch of liquid. I'm wondering if that will be snow or more freezing rain.:yikes: Either way, I really think that Randolph and Davidson counties should be in a Winter Storm Warning instead of an advisory. If I wasn't completely sold on that, I would have left the Watch in place for a few extra hours. Here's a link to the sounding:

NAM 18z sounding for GSO

I called the RAH NWS about 30 minutes ago, basically told them I thought they were wrong. The guy could give me a straight answer when I told him about the radar, the over-performance of the storm, and the RUC, and he had a Ph.D.

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I called the RAH NWS about 30 minutes ago, basically told them I thought they were wrong. The guy could give me a straight answer when I told him about the radar, the over-performance of the storm, and the RUC, and he had a Ph.D.

I really hope you didn't actually do that.

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Foothills, I got a question that maybe you can answer...

GSP has harked in their discussions all day that at some point late Monday, the moisture at the dendric growth level will begin to dry out transitioning everyone to light freezing rain.

My question is...When exactly is that supposed to happen?

BUFKIT is a great tool... it will show you in pink where the snow growth region is in the sounding. If this turns yellow, than the snow growth region is saturated. Basically when moisture moves out of that zone, the snow will transition over to sleet/freezing rain.

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Currently sitting at 28.9 after a high of 30 and low of 5 degrees this morning. Dewpoint at about 10 and slowly rising. Solid cirrus ceiling getting quite thick at this point. Still have about 3.5" of snow on the ground.

Please post your observations in the other thread.

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I'll be pulling for you guys to the South to get a foot plus!

Up here in the Northern Foothills where Big Frosty, Powerstroke, and Me are from we are just to far away and it is dry,dry,dry here! I think it's going to be to much for the moisture to overcome. Plus we will have a weakening storm as we get closer to our area . My area I think we will be lucky to see 2" of snow, and no ICE. There are always winners and losers

Enjoy this ones yours!Snowman.gifSnowman.gif

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I just looked at the Bufkit sounding off of the 18z NAM for Greensboro. It has really bumped up the total precip. It's up to .55 for the storm. However, .22 is FREEZING RAIN and the snow ratios are terrible. Alot of 6:1 showing up. I'm also surprised that it is showing no accumulating sleet. I live about 30 miles south of the airport which should translate to another tenth of an inch of liquid. I'm wondering if that will be snow or more freezing rain.:yikes: Either way, I really think that Randolph and Davidson counties should be in a Winter Storm Warning instead of an advisory. If I wasn't completely sold on that, I would have left the Watch in place for a few extra hours. Here's a link to the sounding:

NAM 18z sounding for GSO

As the crow flies Sophia is exactly 20 miles south of the airport.

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Foothills, I got a question that maybe you can answer...

GSP has harked in their discussions all day that at some point late Monday, the moisture at the dendric growth level will begin to dry out transitioning everyone to light freezing rain.

My question is...When exactly is that supposed to happen?

Usually thats how storms work here in this setup. Once precip begins, it gets heavy (in this case since its comma head and high UVV) and once the back edge of the 700rh has rotated through the growth is gone, so we're left with freezing drizzle. Almost every good storm from the Gulf I've noticed with this track is about 12 hours of snow, give or take a couple of hours. The RUC shows about the same thing, but doesn't go out to the end of our storm.

So for the Upstate to lower NC stretching from GSP AVL CLT region I'd say the snow is going to begin around 2 to 4 am (obviously west to east--adjust for that) and will basically end around 2 to 4 PM...all that is a rough ballpark. The big unknown is the speed of the 700rh rotating north of us, it may begin to crawl slower and slower, esp. up where you are, meaning you may eek out more hours of snow than here. I'd bet you will.

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What is your take on the speed of the 700 rh coming through?

. The big unknown is the speed of the 700rh rotating north of us, it may begin to crawl slower and slower, esp. up where you are, meaning you may eek out more hours of snow than here. I'd bet you will.

Yeah, I assume it was also..

Would have to be the 18z NAM. That's had the highest totals for us so far.

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