earlwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Its tricky up there- depends on what you define as the "Metro" The SREF and the WSI WRF model all have mixing issues- some of the accumulations might be sleet. I will probably be traveling to Lavonia, GA up I-85 to make sure we get in the much better chance of heavy snow. Do you think the FFC forecast is spoton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't like what the 18z NAM bufkit is showing for RDU. Almost half an inch liquid equivalent of "heavy" freezing drizzle. A "heavy" freezing drizzle would coat everything. It keeps the boundary layer dry for RDU up until the point at which the dendritic growth zone dries up. No worries...Just an advisory:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Killer! Sure does. Oh my word, 18z RGEM plasters NW 2/3 of S.C. and NW quarter of Georgia at 24 hours. Link here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Oh my word, 18z RGEM plasters NW 2/3 of S.C. and NW quarter of Georgia at 24 hours. Link here. It looks like that would rotate on up to is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 These trends are just awesome...looks like the 18z GFS is going to come in wetter for our area..out to 15 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS has the feature closed off at 6 hours -- wasn't closed at 12 on 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just looked at the Bufkit sounding off of the 18z NAM for Greensboro. It has really bumped up the total precip. It's up to .55 for the storm. However, .22 is FREEZING RAIN and the snow ratios are terrible. Alot of 6:1 showing up. I'm also surprised that it is showing no accumulating sleet. I live about 30 miles south of the airport which should translate to another tenth of an inch of liquid. I'm wondering if that will be snow or more freezing rain. Either way, I really think that Randolph and Davidson counties should be in a Winter Storm Warning instead of an advisory. If I wasn't completely sold on that, I would have left the Watch in place for a few extra hours. Here's a link to the sounding: NAM 18z sounding for GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No worries...Just a advisory:) Yeah.. It's not a great set up for a powerful winter storm here, but several hours of "heavy" freezing drizzle would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Currently sitting at 28.9 after a high of 30 and low of 5 degrees this morning. Dewpoint at about 10 and slowly rising. Solid cirrus ceiling getting quite thick at this point. Still have about 3.5" of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks like that would rotate on up to is. You can change the hour to 36 in the URL and you will find that it kind of fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Foothills, I got a question that maybe you can answer... GSP has harked in their discussions all day that at some point late Monday, the moisture at the dendric growth level will begin to dry out transitioning everyone to light freezing rain. My question is...When exactly is that supposed to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at hr 6 the precip is south of what the current radar indicates in arkansas. dont know if that means anything or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just looked at the Bufkit sounding off of the 18z NAM for Greensboro. It has really bumped up the total precip. It's up to .55 for the storm. However, .22 is FREEZING RAIN and the snow ratios are terrible. Alot of 6:1 showing up. I'm also surprised that it is showing no accumulating sleet. I live about 30 miles south of the airport which should translate to another tenth of an inch of liquid. I'm wondering if that will be snow or more freezing rain. Either way, I really think that Randolph and Davidson counties should be in a Winter Storm Warning instead of an advisory. If I wasn't completely sold on that, I would have left the Watch in place for a few extra hours. Here's a link to the sounding: NAM 18z sounding for GSO I called the RAH NWS about 30 minutes ago, basically told them I thought they were wrong. The guy could give me a straight answer when I told him about the radar, the over-performance of the storm, and the RUC, and he had a Ph.D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darkabyssus Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW... wral's in house futurecast is showing 2-4" snow at RDU and points west to Greensboro.. WRAL'S FUTURCAST I for one am just crossing my fingers i dont have to go to school tomorrow.. hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You can change the hour to 36 in the URL and you will find that it kind of fizzles out. Yea but by then it wouldve already swept through my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS has the feature closed off at 6 hours -- wasn't closed at 12 on 12z run. lol welcome back to reality GFS! The trends are good for folks who need the precipitation to advance further north. Already most of Arkansas is covered with moderate to deep reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I called the RAH NWS about 30 minutes ago, basically told them I thought they were wrong. The guy could give me a straight answer when I told him about the radar, the over-performance of the storm, and the RUC, and he had a Ph.D. I really hope you didn't actually do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Foothills, I got a question that maybe you can answer... GSP has harked in their discussions all day that at some point late Monday, the moisture at the dendric growth level will begin to dry out transitioning everyone to light freezing rain. My question is...When exactly is that supposed to happen? BUFKIT is a great tool... it will show you in pink where the snow growth region is in the sounding. If this turns yellow, than the snow growth region is saturated. Basically when moisture moves out of that zone, the snow will transition over to sleet/freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at hr 6 the precip is south of what the current radar indicates in arkansas. dont know if that means anything or not. It always means that the GFS can't handle the storm so close like hi-res models can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Currently sitting at 28.9 after a high of 30 and low of 5 degrees this morning. Dewpoint at about 10 and slowly rising. Solid cirrus ceiling getting quite thick at this point. Still have about 3.5" of snow on the ground. Please post your observations in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll be pulling for you guys to the South to get a foot plus! Up here in the Northern Foothills where Big Frosty, Powerstroke, and Me are from we are just to far away and it is dry,dry,dry here! I think it's going to be to much for the moisture to overcome. Plus we will have a weakening storm as we get closer to our area . My area I think we will be lucky to see 2" of snow, and no ICE. There are always winners and losers Enjoy this ones yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit plasters Charlotte...9.2" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I really hope you didn't actually do that. He probably did and there will be a running joke about him for a few years. I'll bet the other guy didn't give a straight answer cause he was to busy doing this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I just looked at the Bufkit sounding off of the 18z NAM for Greensboro. It has really bumped up the total precip. It's up to .55 for the storm. However, .22 is FREEZING RAIN and the snow ratios are terrible. Alot of 6:1 showing up. I'm also surprised that it is showing no accumulating sleet. I live about 30 miles south of the airport which should translate to another tenth of an inch of liquid. I'm wondering if that will be snow or more freezing rain. Either way, I really think that Randolph and Davidson counties should be in a Winter Storm Warning instead of an advisory. If I wasn't completely sold on that, I would have left the Watch in place for a few extra hours. Here's a link to the sounding: NAM 18z sounding for GSO As the crow flies Sophia is exactly 20 miles south of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit plasters Charlotte...9.2" of snow! that's crazy man, if this thing just over performs a little we will be close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah.. It's not a great set up for a powerful winter storm here, but several hours of "heavy" freezing drizzle would not be good. I know, i was hoping the watch would have atleast been extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Foothills, I got a question that maybe you can answer... GSP has harked in their discussions all day that at some point late Monday, the moisture at the dendric growth level will begin to dry out transitioning everyone to light freezing rain. My question is...When exactly is that supposed to happen? Usually thats how storms work here in this setup. Once precip begins, it gets heavy (in this case since its comma head and high UVV) and once the back edge of the 700rh has rotated through the growth is gone, so we're left with freezing drizzle. Almost every good storm from the Gulf I've noticed with this track is about 12 hours of snow, give or take a couple of hours. The RUC shows about the same thing, but doesn't go out to the end of our storm. So for the Upstate to lower NC stretching from GSP AVL CLT region I'd say the snow is going to begin around 2 to 4 am (obviously west to east--adjust for that) and will basically end around 2 to 4 PM...all that is a rough ballpark. The big unknown is the speed of the 700rh rotating north of us, it may begin to crawl slower and slower, esp. up where you are, meaning you may eek out more hours of snow than here. I'd bet you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit plasters Charlotte...9.2" of snow! I really need to get bufkit on this comp. What does it have for FAY and RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What model suite QC? Nam, GFS. Yes, that would be crazy Man!!! Would have to be the 18z NAM. That's had the highest totals for us so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What is your take on the speed of the 700 rh coming through? . The big unknown is the speed of the 700rh rotating north of us, it may begin to crawl slower and slower, esp. up where you are, meaning you may eek out more hours of snow than here. I'd bet you will. Yeah, I assume it was also.. Would have to be the 18z NAM. That's had the highest totals for us so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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