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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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I also ASSume that 'IF" the radar and sort term models continue to look good on the 74/85 area, that total map "should" rise again....

Still trying to chill out and wait...lol

Yep it's hard to temper the optimism right now but been on the loosing end so much I'll just accept this is right on the money and be happy weight_lift.gif......however yea with the current radar it looks primed for us...also could we see thunder snow? Some of those returns are going to be very heavy...but I don't know enough about the upper level dynamics that produce it. Any mets care to chime in?

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I also ASSume that 'IF" the radar and sort term models continue to look good on the 74/85 area, that total map "should" rise again....

Still trying to chill out and wait...lol

They won't make any drastic changes. They usually step it up over time.

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They will likely be right on when all is said and done. The setup does not favor our area at all: dampening shortwave, weakening low, decaying lift, extremely dry air at the surface, drying air aloft, potential moisture transport interruption by convection in the Gulf, etc..... What favors higher precip totals here? I can't think of anything. Advisories are more than adequate at this time. I think underperforming precip is much more likely than overperforming at this point.

... Told the wife to stay in normal mode for the grocery store trip:O(.....

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Yeah, even if I don't get my foot, It'll be great to see if fall for once with temps in the mid 20s. But there's a gathering consensus of 1"+ QPF for the GSP to CLT corridor with the vast majority of it being snow. Dare I say bubbles of 12-16"?

The temps are going to be impressive here with the snow, we almost never get a major snowfall with temps in the middle 20's, and thats' how its shaping up. Also, there's very strong high pressure entrenched, I hope that doesn't play with our precip production on this side of the mountains, but a 1030mb to start , we never see that either, but the Jan 88 snowfall had a very strong high pressure just to our north, so it can happen. We actually had temperatures stay around 18 all day during that snowstorm here.

post-38-0-22078200-1294607829.gif

2m temps:

post-38-0-23537900-1294607844.gif

42 hour temps:

post-38-0-39676700-1294607868.gif

winds:

post-38-0-23926800-1294607896.gif

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Nice Jason!! I've moved mine for the night. It's now looking out a back window at a table with a 1 foot ruler, similar to the setup the guy used in Jersey during the blizzard. Even have a light outside so it should be visible all night long. Should be fun to watch! I might need to put a brighter light so you can see the markings on the ruler better but well see!

Great idea! Hmmmm....thanks for the tip on the web cam. Got the wireless version and works great so far.

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Nashville disco\\\

000FXUS64 KOHX 092053AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN253 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011.DISCUSSION...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BASICALLY HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THESOUTH WITH LEAST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. UPDATED WSW AROUND 130PM AND CAN BE FOUND UNDER PRODUCTS AT WEB SITE. SURFACE LOW JUST OFFLOUISIANA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG GULF COASTAL AREASNEXT 24-36 HRS. WINTRY PRECIP ALREADY SPREADING NORTHWARD FROMGULF REGION AND AT MID-AFTERNOON HAD REACHED AS FAR NORTH ALONG A LINEFROM TUSCALOOSA...GREENWOOD...PINE BLUFF AND HOT SPRINGS. EXPECTSNOW TO REACH SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND 7 PM THEN INTO THENASHVILLE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST ANDPLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT.AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS BASICALLY USED HPC QPF AND THEN USED A 10:1RATIO OF SNOW TO LIQUID TO GET THE FINAL AMOUNTS. TRIED TO TAILORAMOUNTS CLOSE WHAT THE LATEST HPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONGRAPHICS HAS AND IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSE. I EXPECT THUNDER SNOWACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK MONDAY ASEQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT THIS.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ANDTUESDAY AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHAND PLATEAU BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT.TEMPS WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

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Yep it's hard to temper the optimism right now but been on the loosing end so much I'll just accept this is right on the money and be happy weight_lift.gif......however yea with the current radar it looks primed for us...also could we see thunder snow? Some of those returns are going to be very heavy...but I don't know enough about the upper level dynamics that produce it. Any mets care to chime in?

Someone was here earlier mentioning the chance for thundersnow on the southern TN/northern AL border. Don't know about us though but it would sure make that SV map verify haha.

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Temps for 1988 during the storm was 20high /14low for Forest City, on the 8th. 7.5" fell that day!

The temps are going to be impressive here with the snow, we almost never get a major snowfall with temps in the middle 20's, and thats' how its shaping up. Also, there's very strong high pressure entrenched, I hope that doesn't play with our precip production on this side of the mountains, but a 1030mb to start , we never see that either, but the Jan 88 snowfall had a very strong high pressure just to our north, so it can happen. We actually had temperatures stay around 18 all day during that snowstorm here.

post-38-0-23926800-1294607896.gif

Yep. Might have to get to bed before midnight tonight!

yea I think i'm gonna get up around 3 or 4 :snowman:

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Been doing "normal folks stuff" all morning, but the trends for the Atlanta metro not good snow wise. The NAM has backed off- is now close to the SREF. Therefore I am revising my forecast down to 2-4"- with 2-3" here in the heart of the city, and 4" up north. the far northern burbs may get over 4" but the really heavy stuff will be in the northern 2-3 tier of counties. We will have maybe an inch of sleet, with ZR- and ZL lasting into the evening, maybe a few minor power issues, more major south of the Metro.

Therefore a road trip is in the works.probably up to south of Chattanooga.Maybe Dalton?

NAM looks like 4-6" for ATL north to my untrained eyes...I know you aren't basing your forecast solely off the NAM but do you think it's showing less than 4-6, verbatim?

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The RUC has been steadfast on bringing the start time for highway 74 region between Forest City to Charlotte around 2 or 3 am, so I'm going for a 2 to 4 am slot here. Well i just checked the latest runs and it has it arriving around 1 am. Also that roughly matches 18z NAM. The UVV's are really pounding all of N. Ga and se Tenn and western Carolinas around 6 am. Should be a quick cover of snow once it starts.

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The RUC has been steadfast on bringing the start time for highway 74 region between Forest City to Charlotte around 2 or 3 am, so I'm going for a 2 to 4 am slot here. Well i just checked the latest runs and it has it arriving around 1 am. Also that roughly matches 18z NAM. The UVV's are really pounding all of N. Ga and se Tenn and western Carolinas around 6 am. Should be a quick cover of snow once it starts.

axesmiley.png I'm going into work at 5 a.m. for a new site launch. I'm telling my boss as soon as I see snow flying I am out of there.

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The RUC has been steadfast on bringing the start time for highway 74 region between Forest City to Charlotte around 2 or 3 am, so I'm going for a 2 to 4 am slot here. Well i just checked the latest runs and it has it arriving around 1 am. Also that roughly matches 18z NAM. The UVV's are really pounding all of N. Ga and se Tenn and western Carolinas around 6 am. Should be a quick cover of snow once it starts.

Keep hearing starting around lunchtime here tomorrow. With dry air around here is that a safe bet for timing?

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I think im going to call BS on FFCs 1 to 3 inch forecast here. I really think the warm nose will have a harder time moving north than they think but Im no met. I know every storm is different but I got 6-8 in the 88 storm. I know the maps might not show it but I just looked at the pictures and we got plastered. I dont remember much sleet at all. I guess well see. Either way I doubt I will be working tomorrow.

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NAM looks like 4-6" for ATL north to my untrained eyes...I know you aren't basing your forecast solely off the NAM but do you think it's showing less than 4-6, verbatim?

Its tricky up there- depends on what you define as the "Metro" The SREF and the WSI WRF model all have mixing issues- some of the accumulations might be sleet. I will probably be traveling to Lavonia, GA up I-85 to make sure we get in the much better chance of heavy snow.

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I don't like what the 18z NAM bufkit is showing for RDU. Almost half an inch liquid equivalent of "heavy" freezing drizzle. A "heavy" freezing drizzle would coat everything. It keeps the boundary layer dry for RDU up until the point at which the dendritic growth zone dries up.

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