lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this is the first time I've been on the trend up from GSP in 2 years. They lowered mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I also ASSume that 'IF" the radar and sort term models continue to look good on the 74/85 area, that total map "should" rise again.... Still trying to chill out and wait...lol Yep it's hard to temper the optimism right now but been on the loosing end so much I'll just accept this is right on the money and be happy ......however yea with the current radar it looks primed for us...also could we see thunder snow? Some of those returns are going to be very heavy...but I don't know enough about the upper level dynamics that produce it. Any mets care to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I also ASSume that 'IF" the radar and sort term models continue to look good on the 74/85 area, that total map "should" rise again.... Still trying to chill out and wait...lol They won't make any drastic changes. They usually step it up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEAGE NOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, I lived in piedmont all my life, looks like a I-85 special coming our way ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is why I ASSumed. But yes I agree 100%. It will be over a period of time, No doubt. They won't make any drastic changes. They usually step it up over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lol.. And they lowered mine. Even tho I'm up to almost one inch qpf and all snow. Dare you say correct John.. GSP update the total map a little. At 6" up from 5.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 They will likely be right on when all is said and done. The setup does not favor our area at all: dampening shortwave, weakening low, decaying lift, extremely dry air at the surface, drying air aloft, potential moisture transport interruption by convection in the Gulf, etc..... What favors higher precip totals here? I can't think of anything. Advisories are more than adequate at this time. I think underperforming precip is much more likely than overperforming at this point. ... Told the wife to stay in normal mode for the grocery store trip:O(..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are we still looking at the same time frames or is this speeding up a little. It looks like it is speeding up to me but could be an illusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 18z RGEM is wetter than 06z. Hard to compare with 12z because the time frames don't match up and I can't find a 48 hour total map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least for WNC. GSP noted on set by 03 - 09.... So early morning here! Are we still looking at the same time frames or is this speeding up a little. It looks like it is speeding up to me but could be an illusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 question. which direction is the storm moving? looks north east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, even if I don't get my foot, It'll be great to see if fall for once with temps in the mid 20s. But there's a gathering consensus of 1"+ QPF for the GSP to CLT corridor with the vast majority of it being snow. Dare I say bubbles of 12-16"? The temps are going to be impressive here with the snow, we almost never get a major snowfall with temps in the middle 20's, and thats' how its shaping up. Also, there's very strong high pressure entrenched, I hope that doesn't play with our precip production on this side of the mountains, but a 1030mb to start , we never see that either, but the Jan 88 snowfall had a very strong high pressure just to our north, so it can happen. We actually had temperatures stay around 18 all day during that snowstorm here. 2m temps: 42 hour temps: winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At least for WNC. GSP noted on set by 03 - 09.... So early morning here! yea I think i'm gonna get up around 3 or 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice Jason!! I've moved mine for the night. It's now looking out a back window at a table with a 1 foot ruler, similar to the setup the guy used in Jersey during the blizzard. Even have a light outside so it should be visible all night long. Should be fun to watch! I might need to put a brighter light so you can see the markings on the ruler better but well see! Great idea! Hmmmm....thanks for the tip on the web cam. Got the wireless version and works great so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 They lowered mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nashville disco\\\ 000FXUS64 KOHX 092053AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN253 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2011.DISCUSSION...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BASICALLY HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THESOUTH WITH LEAST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST. UPDATED WSW AROUND 130PM AND CAN BE FOUND UNDER PRODUCTS AT WEB SITE. SURFACE LOW JUST OFFLOUISIANA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG GULF COASTAL AREASNEXT 24-36 HRS. WINTRY PRECIP ALREADY SPREADING NORTHWARD FROMGULF REGION AND AT MID-AFTERNOON HAD REACHED AS FAR NORTH ALONG A LINEFROM TUSCALOOSA...GREENWOOD...PINE BLUFF AND HOT SPRINGS. EXPECTSNOW TO REACH SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND 7 PM THEN INTO THENASHVILLE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST ANDPLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT.AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS BASICALLY USED HPC QPF AND THEN USED A 10:1RATIO OF SNOW TO LIQUID TO GET THE FINAL AMOUNTS. TRIED TO TAILORAMOUNTS CLOSE WHAT THE LATEST HPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONGRAPHICS HAS AND IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSE. I EXPECT THUNDER SNOWACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK MONDAY ASEQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMP PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT THIS.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ANDTUESDAY AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHAND PLATEAU BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT.TEMPS WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep it's hard to temper the optimism right now but been on the loosing end so much I'll just accept this is right on the money and be happy ......however yea with the current radar it looks primed for us...also could we see thunder snow? Some of those returns are going to be very heavy...but I don't know enough about the upper level dynamics that produce it. Any mets care to chime in? Someone was here earlier mentioning the chance for thundersnow on the southern TN/northern AL border. Don't know about us though but it would sure make that SV map verify haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Temps for 1988 during the storm was 20high /14low for Forest City, on the 8th. 7.5" fell that day! The temps are going to be impressive here with the snow, we almost never get a major snowfall with temps in the middle 20's, and thats' how its shaping up. Also, there's very strong high pressure entrenched, I hope that doesn't play with our precip production on this side of the mountains, but a 1030mb to start , we never see that either, but the Jan 88 snowfall had a very strong high pressure just to our north, so it can happen. We actually had temperatures stay around 18 all day during that snowstorm here. Yep. Might have to get to bed before midnight tonight! yea I think i'm gonna get up around 3 or 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Been doing "normal folks stuff" all morning, but the trends for the Atlanta metro not good snow wise. The NAM has backed off- is now close to the SREF. Therefore I am revising my forecast down to 2-4"- with 2-3" here in the heart of the city, and 4" up north. the far northern burbs may get over 4" but the really heavy stuff will be in the northern 2-3 tier of counties. We will have maybe an inch of sleet, with ZR- and ZL lasting into the evening, maybe a few minor power issues, more major south of the Metro. Therefore a road trip is in the works.probably up to south of Chattanooga.Maybe Dalton? NAM looks like 4-6" for ATL north to my untrained eyes...I know you aren't basing your forecast solely off the NAM but do you think it's showing less than 4-6, verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great idea! Hmmmm....thanks for the tip on the web cam. Got the wireless version and works great so far. I hope you get clocked! You deserve it for sure. I bet you get 8+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The RUC has been steadfast on bringing the start time for highway 74 region between Forest City to Charlotte around 2 or 3 am, so I'm going for a 2 to 4 am slot here. Well i just checked the latest runs and it has it arriving around 1 am. Also that roughly matches 18z NAM. The UVV's are really pounding all of N. Ga and se Tenn and western Carolinas around 6 am. Should be a quick cover of snow once it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The RUC has been steadfast on bringing the start time for highway 74 region between Forest City to Charlotte around 2 or 3 am, so I'm going for a 2 to 4 am slot here. Well i just checked the latest runs and it has it arriving around 1 am. Also that roughly matches 18z NAM. The UVV's are really pounding all of N. Ga and se Tenn and western Carolinas around 6 am. Should be a quick cover of snow once it starts. I'm going into work at 5 a.m. for a new site launch. I'm telling my boss as soon as I see snow flying I am out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The RUC has been steadfast on bringing the start time for highway 74 region between Forest City to Charlotte around 2 or 3 am, so I'm going for a 2 to 4 am slot here. Well i just checked the latest runs and it has it arriving around 1 am. Also that roughly matches 18z NAM. The UVV's are really pounding all of N. Ga and se Tenn and western Carolinas around 6 am. Should be a quick cover of snow once it starts. Keep hearing starting around lunchtime here tomorrow. With dry air around here is that a safe bet for timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ro9beam2002 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wake Forest NC... 33.5* and 8*-DP ..... was about 4*-DP a few hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I see Auburn Alabama is reporting light snow under that e-w band of heavier returns pushing into Georgia. Like that the precip type is snow that far south. http://www.motoweatherman.com/radarFFC_loop/default.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think im going to call BS on FFCs 1 to 3 inch forecast here. I really think the warm nose will have a harder time moving north than they think but Im no met. I know every storm is different but I got 6-8 in the 88 storm. I know the maps might not show it but I just looked at the pictures and we got plastered. I dont remember much sleet at all. I guess well see. Either way I doubt I will be working tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great idea! Hmmmm....thanks for the tip on the web cam. Got the wireless version and works great so far. I liked the wireless for this very reason, unplug it and move it some place else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM looks like 4-6" for ATL north to my untrained eyes...I know you aren't basing your forecast solely off the NAM but do you think it's showing less than 4-6, verbatim? Its tricky up there- depends on what you define as the "Metro" The SREF and the WSI WRF model all have mixing issues- some of the accumulations might be sleet. I will probably be traveling to Lavonia, GA up I-85 to make sure we get in the much better chance of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't like what the 18z NAM bufkit is showing for RDU. Almost half an inch liquid equivalent of "heavy" freezing drizzle. A "heavy" freezing drizzle would coat everything. It keeps the boundary layer dry for RDU up until the point at which the dendritic growth zone dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Oh my word, 18z RGEM plasters NW 2/3 of S.C. and NW quarter of Georgia at 24 hours. Link here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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