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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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18z NAM is definitely trending in the right direction for central NC. Another trend north like this and we are talking about an interesting storm. Thankfully, the RGEM the WRF models have also trended north. Even the Canadian isn't that bad with about 0.4" of precip here.

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Yes I agree. Add me to the 1-2 in the night grid, 3-5 Monday day. was less than 1" and 2-4 on Monday....

Even though GSP didn't discuss forecast abouts in their disco, mine were upped from 3-7 to 5-9 (judging by the grids), which were updated around 3pm (for me). It's an excellent start. :D I'd suggest GSP folks check your forecast until the warning gets updated to see if this is a trend for everyone.

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18z NAM has me literally in the bulls eye at 11". LOL :arrowhead::arrowhead::snowman::snowman:

if i am anywhere near that (either up or down) i will be jumping for joy

My afternoon update with my final forecast map, thanks for reading.

i think we should say thank you for posting, writing up great analyses and posting...same for foothills, cheez, dawsonwx, eyewall and all the other mets!

looking at radar i am just amazed at the extend of the precip shield.honestly this is sort of hard to comprehend about now since i am as confident as i have been before a storm in a long, long time

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There will be plenty of cliff diving for the RDU folks with being advisoried.

The Nam just gave me 7 inches and I'm under advisory. They will adjust these by 10:00 ish tonight and include more areas. I guess the only model for my area thats late to party is gfs, but even it gives me 4 inches of snow. My county is so large that there will be a sharp gradient across it most likely. But with recent trends 3-6 county wide may end up being to conservative if tese trends keep up. The soundings are staying almost all snow now as well, until we dry out in the snowflake honeymoon sweet up top towards the end.

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if i am anywhere near that (either up or down) i will be jumping for joy

i think we should say thank you for posting, writing up great analyses and posting...same for foothills, cheez, dawsonwx, eyewall and all the other mets!

looking at radar i am just amazed at the extend of the precip shield.honestly this is sort of hard to comprehend about now since i am as confident as i have been before a storm in a long, long time

Thanks!

You know the snow rules up here...whatever I get...you get double. Always seems to work out that way. LOL

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Wow. 10 inches +(or I think I'm in that zone or close). I believe it. It just seems like every low has over performed recently and you have been on this forecast from the beginning.

With the cold temps, this storm is really going to have a huge impact somewhere. Bad roads for days. I hope nobody loses power. It's a huge difference sitting in the dark at 33 and sitting in the dark at 18.

Any high wind concerns?

I don't think wind concerns since the pressure gradient is so weak but if somehow convection were to occur, then localized winds and sleet would be a problem, I'd think the place to exp. that would be northern Alabama and on the wedge front around Athens to Columbia region tomorrow afternoon

I like your map, Robert. Some I've seen show folks up north still think Atl is end of Ga in winter weather, when in fact some of the biggest impact might be well south of me. Tony

Hey Tony, I didn't hit on the ice potential on this map, but my thoughts from yesterdays map still stands, it should be on the blog. Deep in Ga. where the moisture goes from snow to ice you'll have a good period of sustained sleet while theres still good lift and too warm aloft for snow, transitioning to freezing rain, then Freezing drizzle that will last and last. Hard to say where the most sleet accm. will be , but between Macon Columbus and Atlanta to Athens , if you combine the good lift and heavy precip with the period after the snow, then that would be my area, and extending into SC.

Nice job robert! I like that everyone is doing blogs now, it helps with being able to find more detailed thoughts.

thanks. Like yours too. And I love reading other's thoughts.

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They just closed our schools for tomorrow...(New Hanover Co and surrounding areas.)

Local AFD updated valid

316 PM EST sun Jan 9 2011

(I'm not buying into all of it, I bet it WILL be updated)

/Monday through Tuesday night/...

as of 3 PM Sunday...winter weather event as advertised will begin to

impact our area late Sunday night from the south and finally spread

northward into the remainder of the area around daybreak.

The models are showing iessive isentropic lift on the 300k

surface by 18 UTC on Monday and deep moisture is available early in

the event as the lift and moisture interact with the snow dendritic

growth zone for a short period of less than 6 hours. This timing

will allow for the event to begin as snow. By 21 UTC the deep

moisture has left the region and with the available lift ahead of

the low moving up the coast will produce freezing rain inland where

the the surface temperatures will stay at or just below freezing.

Current forecast total for snow call for 2 inches with isolated

areas of 3 inches mainly west of Interstate 95. As one works to the

coast amount will drop to trace amounts to 1 inch. For freezing rain

expect amount of a tenth to a quarter of an inch west of Interstate

95. Between one hundredth of an inch and and tenth of an inch of

freezing rain is possible to the east of the previous area and only

rain is expected along immediate coast.

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trying dancing around singing like crazy!! i actually went out today to try and take a breather since tonights gonna be wild. i was sort of nervous but looks like all things are and nowcasting shows a ton of moisture from texas to al!!

the temp is 29, never hit 30 today, was 11 last night so we should be set!! its looking like the ruc is bringing in precip around 7 PM here. getting ready to look at all the latest info - but i think a lot of us are set for one heck of a winter storm

Yeah, I know you are, lol. I just believe in this blocking. I always felt it would be colder than the usual chance we have. And as long as that blocking stays so good, we probably have more chances to come. I really hope this is just the beginning. Roberts has been locked on this pattern coming for a long time, and I've thought since I was a child...get your blocking in place, then work in the other pieces.... and the maps have been playing with some great blocking since Turkeyday.

Looks on radar like I'll be getting into some rain or zrain soon..purely subjective but it smells and feels more moist out there, lol. T

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right on GA, was thinking exactly this as you stated above, more a slidder furthur offshore translates to heavier coastal snow, ie dec 89 though this setup is completely different

Actually, I'm thinking in terms of more ZR potential for/near the coast, not more snow potential since I'm thinking more about stronger low level cold/wedging rather than colder at 850 mb and higher.

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yes, further north and east with snow, imo.

You've stuck to your guns about this setup even when the models were questionable, and even when I was seriously doubting you and others. Lo and behold, the models are the last minute are making the big north and east shift, and intensifying the precip amounts. The 18z NAM looks incredible for the I-85/74 areas, and even looks a bit slower at scouring out the 850 temps.

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Been doing "normal folks stuff" all morning, but the trends for the Atlanta metro not good snow wise. The NAM has backed off- is now close to the SREF. Therefore I am revising my forecast down to 2-4"- with 2-3" here in the heart of the city, and 4" up north. the far northern burbs may get over 4" but the really heavy stuff will be in the northern 2-3 tier of counties. We will have maybe an inch of sleet, with ZR- and ZL lasting into the evening, maybe a few minor power issues, more major south of the Metro.

Therefore a road trip is in the works.probably up to south of Chattanooga.Maybe Dalton?

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Been doing "normal folks stuff" all morning, but the trends for the Atlanta metro not good snow wise. The NAM has backed off- is now close to the SREF. Therefore I am revising my forecast down to 2-4"- with 2-3" here in the heart of the city, and 4" up north. the far northern burbs may get over 4" but the really heavy stuff will be in the northern 2-3 tier of counties. We will have maybe an inch of sleet, with ZR- and ZL lasting into the evening, maybe a few minor power issues, more major south of the Metro.

Therefore a road trip is in the works.probably up to south of Chattanooga.Maybe Dalton?

If you want to come to CLT you're more then welcome...got a spare bedroom you can use.

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You've stuck to your guns about this setup even when the models were questionable, and even when I was seriously doubting you and others. Lo and behold, the models are the last minute are making the big north and east shift, and intensifying the precip amounts. The 18z NAM looks incredible for the I-85/74 areas, and even looks a bit slower at scouring out the 850 temps.

This storm reminds me of the Dec. DC storm where it kept coming in stronger and stronger for them. You might have found your foot, should be interesting to see how it all unfolds tomorrow. I look forward to a good heavy snow in the afternoon for once.

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FYI...I've got my new webcam up and running. The image updates every 10 seconds. As you can see i got my "snow board" out...my truck. LOL

http://www.motoweath...ge/camimage.jpg

Below is a sample:

Nice Jason!! I've moved mine for the night. It's now looking out a back window at a table with a 1 foot ruler, similar to the setup the guy used in Jersey during the blizzard. Even have a light outside so it should be visible all night long. Should be fun to watch! I might need to put a brighter light so you can see the markings on the ruler better but well see!

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This storm reminds me of the Dec. DC storm where it kept coming in stronger and stronger for them. You might have found your foot, should be interesting to see how it all unfolds tomorrow. I look forward to a good heavy snow in the afternoon for once.

Yeah, even if I don't get my foot, It'll be great to see if fall for once with temps in the mid 20s. But there's a gathering consensus of 1"+ QPF for the GSP to CLT corridor with the vast majority of it being snow. Dare I say bubbles of 12-16"?

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Looks like Wake Forest area/Raleigh NC.. is being advisorized... sounds kinda whimpy :( What are the odds for a nice and interesting surprise for this area? 15-25%?

They will likely be right on when all is said and done. The setup does not favor our area at all: dampening shortwave, weakening low, decaying lift, extremely dry air at the surface, drying air aloft, potential moisture transport interruption by convection in the Gulf, etc..... What favors higher precip totals here? I can't think of anything. Advisories are more than adequate at this time. I think underperforming precip is much more likely than overperforming at this point.

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Dare you say correct John.. :)

Yeah, even if I don't get my foot, It'll be great to see if fall for once with temps in the mid 20s. But there's a gathering consensus of 1"+ QPF for the GSP to CLT corridor with the vast majority of it being snow. Dare I say bubbles of 12-16"?

GSP update the total map a little. At 6" up from 5.8" :)

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

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Been doing "normal folks stuff" all morning, but the trends for the Atlanta metro not good snow wise. The NAM has backed off- is now close to the SREF. Therefore I am revising my forecast down to 2-4"- with 2-3" here in the heart of the city, and 4" up north. the far northern burbs may get over 4" but the really heavy stuff will be in the northern 2-3 tier of counties. We will have maybe an inch of sleet, with ZR- and ZL lasting into the evening, maybe a few minor power issues, more major south of the Metro.

Therefore a road trip is in the works.probably up to south of Chattanooga.Maybe Dalton?

FFC saw this earlier, what's the reason behind the reduced precip?

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