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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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Awesome how the models continue to trend wet this afternoon! Feeling good an hour to your ne!!

18z NAM looks like the 15z SREF in that it jackpots Chattanooga,TN to Greenville,SC to Charlotte,NC with nearly a foot of snow!

Edit: verbatim, The 18z NAM has dropped a foot of snow in mby by 1pm Monday and at this point it's still snowing but should switch to sleet within the hour.

Since im 25 mins west of Skip, I will place myself in that also!!!

NAM has you to me in a bullseye for the NC area on precip.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

313 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY

INTO TUESDAY...

.WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND

MONDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH

CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY

EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT

AND TUESDAY MORNING.

NCZ073>075-083>086-100500-

/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0001.110110T1200Z-110111T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0001.110110T1200Z-110111T1800Z/

STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES...

WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD

313 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM

EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM

EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED: THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING WADESBORO...

ALBEMARLE... ROCKINGHAM... TROY... SOUTHERN PINES... RAEFORD...

LAURINBURG AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE

SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. SNOW IS

EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING.

* ACCUMULATION: AROUND THREE INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY

AND MONDAY EVENING ACROSS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WITH LOCALLY

HEAVIER AMOUNTS. A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE

ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TENTH INCH ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING

INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: SNOW MAY BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY IN THE WADESBORO

AREA AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST DURING THE MORNING. THE

TRANSITION TO MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR MONDAY

EVENING...WITH MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY

NIGHT. A LIGHT DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING WILL END THE

PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE

FREEZING.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH THE SNOWFALL ON

MONDAY...WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY. ICE

ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE TENTH

INCH... WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

* TEMPERATURES: MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY BE IN

THE UPPER 20S BEFORE APPROACHING FREEZING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S MONDAY NIGHT... AND RISE

INTO THE MID 30S TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

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Although temp.'s are near the projections, TD's are running a bit lower than recent NAM runs have projected along the ILM-SSI corridor. Also, winds are a little more northerly (less easterly component) vs. the projections. That tells me that the cold/dry air is likely going to hang tougher than what the NAM projected and could have implications for late tonight into tomorrow when the precip. makes it to this region. Although this drier air would eat up more of the precip. to evap., this would also probably result in a longer duration of ZR than has been projected. Let's see if this persists into this evening.

Meanwhile, if the RUC initialization is accurate, the GOM sfc low is continuing to track a good bit (say 100 miles or so) further south than the model consensus has had. Perhaps, this is loosely related to the cold/dry air to the north hanging extra tough over the SE. Should this track continue to be south of projections, it would most likely imply colder temp.'s to its north and more wintry precip. for the SE coastal areas.

19Z RUC init.:

post-882-0-11839900-1294603522.gif

Stormsfury, if you're reading this, I'd love to hear what you have to say!

right on GA, was thinking exactly this as you stated above, more a slidder furthur offshore translates to heavier coastal snow, ie dec 89 though this setup is completely different

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

313 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY

INTO TUESDAY...

.WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND

MONDAY...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH

CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY

EVENING...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT

AND TUESDAY MORNING.

NCZ021>025-038>042-076>078-088-089-100500-

/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0001.110110T1200Z-110111T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0002.110110T1200Z-110111T2100Z/

FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-

WAKE-JOHNSTON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...

HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LEXINGTON...

ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...SANFORD...

LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON

313 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING

RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED: ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED

TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE

SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN NEAR SUNRISE...

REACHING THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE REGIONS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN... INITIALLY

MIXED WITH SLEET LATE MONDAY EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64... AND

BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO THE NORTH. FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME

DOMINATE IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE EVENT WILL

END WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATION: ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE

MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF GOLDSBORO...RALEIGH AND

ROXBORO. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN

AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH INCH ICE ARE

FORECAST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS AS DRIZZLE OR FREEZING

DRIZZLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE NOON MONDAY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64

AND SPREAD NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TRANSITION TO MIXED

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY

FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL END AS DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS WITH THE SNOWFALL ON

MONDAY...WITH HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY.

LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED POWER

OUTAGES.

* TEMPERATURES: WILL REACH THE MID 30S BEFORE THE SNOW ARRIVES

MONDAY...THEN FALL BELOW FREEZING AS SNOW BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT...

THEN RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

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The Nam and the SREF just unloaded on us again. :snowman: You putting out a call map soon?

I really don't have much time to create one. Not trying to lame my way out it. LOL.

Here is the map from FFC and I think it looks pretty good but I would up the amounts at the top to more like 6-8" with local 12" amounts.

post-347-0-59095900-1294604489.gif

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I'm not buying our Local ADF...

Most ya'll worried about dew points are in the minus range...

Currently Mine is +12 & 37% Humidity....

Attached graph...

Our Temp NOW @ 3pm is Usually "topped out" due to Sun Angle this time of year....

Which with TEMPS setting 37.7 with stiff 13&14 Mph hours winds from the north...(NO MARINE Air effect, ie: Warm Nose)..

Raditional cooling should start in the next hour or 2...

Our temps should DROP FAST..

While Dew should Increase as this storm and over running precpip appraches quickly from the South & West....

Am i on the right track here?....

Heres are graph by the hour, as Dews have Leveled, So any precip, "should" saturate the Colouim fairly quickly....

Starting *ALL SNOW* forcasted to start @ or just after mid-night...

Coupled with what i just Opoined...

**Moisture will come streaming into the

area ahead of low pressure system tracking along the Gulf Coast

overnight. Should end up remaining clear for long enough this

evening for temperatures to drop out in ideal radiational cooling

conditions.** Lows into the 20's!

Now should this start say a few hours Earlier, aroun 9 or 10 after Raditional cooling has/is occuring, say temps around freezing, WE could be in for a nice surprize?"

I'm I wrong in My reasonong Mets?

GaWxMeanwhile, if the RUC initialization is accurate, the GOM sfc low is continuing to track a good bit (say 100 miles or so) further south than the model consensus has had. Perhaps, this is loosely related to the cold/dry air to the north hanging extra tough over the SE. Should this track continue to be south of projections, it would most likely imply colder temp.'s to its north and more wintry precip. for the SE coastal areas.

post-2767-0-71677700-1294604606.gif

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My DP has went up to 12 from 10 an hour ago....

Did not talk about amounts, however....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

321 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM TX TO MO

TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE TRACKS

EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL REACH

OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC

UPGLIDE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE

EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS MOISTURE EXTENDS TO

-10 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...AND THERE IS NO WARM NOSE UNTIL MONDAY

AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST...CROSSING UPSTATE

SC OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK. NCEP QPF AND

MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW SOUTHWEST OF

INTERSTATE 26 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS NORTHEAST OF

INTERSTATE 26 WILL LACK ANY OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT...ANY

APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA WILL ACCUMULATE BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS RADIATIONAL COOLING. PRECIPITATION

AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW

NORMAL....AND GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...THE GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY STILL ON TRACK

WITH OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF OUR

STORM WHICH WILL BE ONGOING AT MIDDAY MONDAY. A WARM NOSE WILL

PROGRESS NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER

TO SLEET OR A SNOW-SLEET MIX MORE OR LESS ALONG AND SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 85. NORTH OF THAT LINE...IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FOR MOST

OF THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL DRYING WILL MOVE IN FROM

THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EXTENT THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL NO LONGER BE

ACTIVE...SO FROM A CLOUD MICROPHYSICS STANDPOINT THE PRODUCTION OF

PRECIP WILL FAVOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS THAT WILL NOT BE ABLE

TO CHANGE INTO SNOW CRYSTALS. THE MODELS SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT LOW LEVELS WHERE A WARM NOSE EXISTS AND

SOUNDING TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO 3 DEG C RANGE FROM MONDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS IDEAL FOR AN EXTENDED

PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BETTER

PART OF MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF

TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...QPF MONDAY NIGHT IS ON THE LIGHT

SIDE...SO WE SHOULD ONLY EXPECT A GLAZE OF MAYBE UP TO A TENTH OF AN

INCH ON TOP OF WHATEVER SNOW DEPTH WE ACCUMULATE DURING MONDAY. WE

SHOULD NOT HAVE A MECHANISM TO FUNNEL MORE DRY AIR IN AT THE

SURFACE...SO THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ACCRUAL. TEMPS WILL

REMAIN NEARLY STEADY DURING THIS PERIOD AND MIGHT RISE A FEW DEGREES

LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A CONSIDERATION OF THE EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW

AND THE LIGHT GLAZE ON TOP OF THAT...THINK IT BEST TO UPGRADE THE

AREAS NORTH OF I-40 TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW END TO PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND

FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE A TRANSITION TO RAIN AND

DRIZZLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPS EKE OUT ABOVE 32F.

MEANWHILE...THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE

IN THE DAY WHICH WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW OVER THE MTNS

WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEYS BY AROUND SUNSET.

FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NW FLOW SNOW EVENT

ALONG THE TN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SREF POP WAS

FAVORED THERE...WHICH REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE TO LIKELY

POP. TEMPS WERE KEPT BELOW GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS WE MELT OFF THE

SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE WINTER STORM.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Thanks! You folks up there ought to do great, but I'm betting NeGa will be singing. I know he is in the cat bird seat this winter. I beat you on the dp... 2.6, but my ground temp has risen back to 42. Glad this thing is waiting 'til dusk to pop good. Tony

trying dancing around singing like crazy!! i actually went out today to try and take a breather since tonights gonna be wild. i was sort of nervous but looks like all things are and nowcasting shows a ton of moisture from texas to al!!

the temp is 29, never hit 30 today, was 11 last night so we should be set!! its looking like the ruc is bringing in precip around 7 PM here. getting ready to look at all the latest info - but i think a lot of us are set for one heck of a winter storm

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Even though GSP didn't discuss forecast abouts in their disco, mine were upped from 3-7 to 5-9 (judging by the grids), which were updated around 3pm (for me). It's an excellent start. :D I'd suggest GSP folks check your forecast until the warning gets updated to see if this is a trend for everyone.

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