Weather Czar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yup, CHA is showing 14.4!!! I'm assuming that should translate due east towards us. At least that is what the short range models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Brandon any thoughts on the NMM and ARW for Central NC?? I don't usually pay much attention to the hrwf. It's run pretty similar to the NAM, so it usually show's what the NAM show's, except a little more extreme. It's almost like the old ETA which use to spit out crazy qpf numbers. I think a lot of the "in-house" models that forecasting offices use are based on a similar scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like these 6-panel looks from PSU http://www.meteo.psu...2z/wrfloop.html Dr. Lackmann is also worried about the dry punch killing it in central NC. It basically may be a race to see if the snow moves in fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, and they're right in the middle of the sharp cutoff between a big snow and more of a sleet/ice event IMO. You're a good 40 miles north of the station so in this situation the numbers are pretty meaningless for you, and really most people north of the perimeter (not that there won't be mixing issues in these areas though). Bufkit and Meteostar have been better for me since last night, but I don't know how much I want to rely on the goofy for totals. Think I'll just have to watch. I think I get the sleet storm I've been wanting! Virga storm over head for a while now and clouds are a lot thicker now...no sun to be seen. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit and Meteostar have been better for me since last night, but I don't know how much I want to rely on the goofy for totals. Think I'll just have to watch. I think I get the sleet storm I've been wanting! Virga storm over head for a while now and clouds are a lot thicker now...no sun to be seen. T I'm pulling for you to get a ton of sleet! Looks like you'll start at least getting some evap. cooling before me as you get under that band streaking into GA, and start moistening up the column. My temp is apparently 35 and my dewpoint is -4...I think it's broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Reports of sleet changing to snow in Tuscaloosa, AL. (Roll Snow Roll!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Current DP's. This will give a general Idea. The lowest DP's are right along the NC/SC Border off of latest hourly obs. I'm watching to see how long it takes those single digit readings in N GA and TN to saturate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Don't know if anyone has posted this, but Winter Storm Warning just went up for South GA. I live in Georgia and I have no clue the last time I saw this. http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good luck down there with the impending storm, it does look like at least a portion of the MCS has come ashore in Louisiana. That may help out for those recently modeled lower precip totals. Some may not get the brunt, but this looks like quite a widespread and ffor some a potentially historic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like it is snowing (and sticking) in Dallas now. Temp/DP is 31/2 in GSO and 34/3 in Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 15z SREF just murders far Northern AL,GA,SC, Southern TN, and SW NC. I'm thinking there will be a swath of foot+ totals roughly from Chattanooga,TN to Greenville,SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm pulling for you to get a ton of sleet! Looks like you'll start at least getting some evap. cooling before me as you get under that band streaking into GA, and start moistening up the column. My temp is apparently 35 and my dewpoint is -4...I think it's broken. Thanks! You folks up there ought to do great, but I'm betting NeGa will be singing. I know he is in the cat bird seat this winter. I beat you on the dp... 2.6, but my ground temp has risen back to 42. Glad this thing is waiting 'til dusk to pop good. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob_ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like it's snowing at Mississippi State, and sticking in dirt areas: http://www.gameday.msstate.edu/webcam.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Looks good! I see that you have Raleigh in the 3-6" area now. Do you think this storm will come even further north than most of the models are currently indicating? It does seem like these type of storms move in quicker than expected, which would help us all out if we can get more of the precip to fall before the warmer air aloft moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 still catching up: Isn't this StormFury's area? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... .A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LATE MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. SCZ048-050-052-100030- /O.CON.KCHS.WW.Y.0001.110110T0900Z-110110T2200Z/ BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...CHARLESTON... DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON 1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY. * ACCUMULATION: ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MAINLY WEST OF ROUTE 17. * TIMING: BEGINNING MONDAY AROUND 4 TO 7 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 3 TO 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Awesome update Robert! Here's to us getting buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks good! I see that you have Raleigh in the 3-6" area now. Do you think this storm will come even further north than most of the models are currently indicating? It does seem like these type of storms move in quicker than expected, which would help us all out if we can get the precip to fall before the warmer air aloft moves in. yes, further north and east with snow, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am patiently waiting GSP's atfernoon discussion...I'm sure changes will be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes, further north and east with snow, imo. Since that map doesn't show the counties, what are you expecting for Forsyth and Guilford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Love it, let's hope we win big which looks like it's the case. Wanted to see the 15z precip type of the SREF but SV is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Wow. 10 inches +(or I think I'm in that zone or close). I believe it. It just seems like every low has over performed recently and you have been on this forecast from the beginning. With the cold temps, this storm is really going to have a huge impact somewhere. Bad roads for days. I hope nobody loses power. It's a huge difference sitting in the dark at 33 and sitting in the dark at 18. Any high wind concerns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Current DP's. This will give a general Idea. The lowest DP's are right along the NC/SC Border off of latest hourly obs. I'm watching to see how long it takes those single digit readings in N GA and TN to saturate. Although temp.'s are near the projections, TD's are running a bit lower than recent NAM runs have projected along the ILM-SSI corridor. Also, winds are a little more northerly (less easterly component) vs. the projections. That tells me that the cold/dry air is likely going to hang tougher than what the NAM projected and could have implications for late tonight into tomorrow when the precip. makes it to this region. Although this drier air would eat up more of the precip. to evap., this would also probably result in a longer duration of ZR than has been projected. Let's see if this persists into this evening. Meanwhile, if the RUC initialization is accurate, the GOM sfc low is continuing to track a good bit (say 100 miles or so) further south than the model consensus has had. Perhaps, this is loosely related to the cold/dry air to the north hanging extra tough over the SE. Should this track continue to be south of projections, it would most likely imply colder temp.'s to its north and more wintry precip. for the SE coastal areas. 19Z RUC init.: Stormsfury, if you're reading this, I'd love to hear what you have to say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 still catching up: Isn't this StormFury's area? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... .A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LATE MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. SCZ048-050-052-100030- /O.CON.KCHS.WW.Y.0001.110110T0900Z-110110T2200Z/ BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...CHARLESTON... DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON 1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY. * ACCUMULATION: ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MAINLY WEST OF ROUTE 17. * TIMING: BEGINNING MONDAY AROUND 4 TO 7 AM AND CONTINUING THROUGH 3 TO 5 PM. Yep, local NWS is calling for ice late then changing to rain in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SREF keeps the precip type as snow up until 30 then has IP and ZR for most of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Excellent work, Robert. Time to fill the bathtub, get out the kerosene heater, and have the rotary phone ready to plug in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes, further north and east with snow, imo. I like your map, Robert. Some I've seen show folks up north still think Atl is end of Ga in winter weather, when in fact some of the biggest impact might be well south of me. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, that's what they said. If it goes near Tampa, expect snow for the coast, especially Charleston and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM looks like the 15z SREF in that it jackpots Chattanooga,TN to Greenville,SC to Charlotte,NC with nearly a foot of snow! Edit: verbatim, The 18z NAM has dropped a foot of snow in mby by 1pm Monday and at this point it's still snowing but should switch to sleet within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just updated http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Excellent write up and way to stick to your guns forecasting from the pattern/setup and using models as tools and not Gospel. It took courage to stand your ground against model consensus the last few days, but just like Christmas storm, you should get rewarded again. You have MBY right on the 6 inch line and Ive been saying 3-6 since Friday. Should be alot of fun and I hope those upstate Guys/Gals get their due along with the Chattanooga folks. Big Frosty might even be happy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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