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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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Brandon any thoughts on the NMM and ARW for Central NC??

I don't usually pay much attention to the hrwf. It's run pretty similar to the NAM, so it usually show's what the NAM show's, except a little more extreme. It's almost like the old ETA which use to spit out crazy qpf numbers. I think a lot of the "in-house" models that forecasting offices use are based on a similar scheme.

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Yeah, and they're right in the middle of the sharp cutoff between a big snow and more of a sleet/ice event IMO. You're a good 40 miles north of the station so in this situation the numbers are pretty meaningless for you, and really most people north of the perimeter (not that there won't be mixing issues in these areas though).

Bufkit and Meteostar have been better for me since last night, but I don't know how much I want to rely on the goofy for totals. Think I'll just have to watch. I think I get the sleet storm I've been wanting! Virga storm over head for a while now and clouds are a lot thicker now...no sun to be seen. T

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Bufkit and Meteostar have been better for me since last night, but I don't know how much I want to rely on the goofy for totals. Think I'll just have to watch. I think I get the sleet storm I've been wanting! Virga storm over head for a while now and clouds are a lot thicker now...no sun to be seen. T

I'm pulling for you to get a ton of sleet! Looks like you'll start at least getting some evap. cooling before me as you get under that band streaking into GA, and start moistening up the column. My temp is apparently 35 and my dewpoint is -4...I think it's broken.

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I'm pulling for you to get a ton of sleet! Looks like you'll start at least getting some evap. cooling before me as you get under that band streaking into GA, and start moistening up the column. My temp is apparently 35 and my dewpoint is -4...I think it's broken.

Thanks! You folks up there ought to do great, but I'm betting NeGa will be singing. I know he is in the cat bird seat this winter. I beat you on the dp... 2.6, but my ground temp has risen back to 42. Glad this thing is waiting 'til dusk to pop good. Tony

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Looks good! I see that you have Raleigh in the 3-6" area now. Do you think this storm will come even further north than most of the models are currently indicating?

It does seem like these type of storms move in quicker than expected, which would help us all out if we can get more of the precip to fall before the warmer air aloft moves in.

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still catching up:

Isn't this StormFury's area?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC

1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

EVENING...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST

TODAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING

OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LATE MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN

PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION

WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...

CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING.

SCZ048-050-052-100030-

/O.CON.KCHS.WW.Y.0001.110110T0900Z-110110T2200Z/

BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...CHARLESTON...

DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON

1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM

EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST

MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATION: ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MAINLY WEST

OF ROUTE 17.

* TIMING: BEGINNING MONDAY AROUND 4 TO 7 AM AND CONTINUING

THROUGH 3 TO 5 PM.

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Looks good! I see that you have Raleigh in the 3-6" area now. Do you think this storm will come even further north than most of the models are currently indicating?

It does seem like these type of storms move in quicker than expected, which would help us all out if we can get the precip to fall before the warmer air aloft moves in.

yes, further north and east with snow, imo.

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Wow. 10 inches +(or I think I'm in that zone or close). I believe it. It just seems like every low has over performed recently and you have been on this forecast from the beginning.

With the cold temps, this storm is really going to have a huge impact somewhere. Bad roads for days. I hope nobody loses power. It's a huge difference sitting in the dark at 33 and sitting in the dark at 18.

Any high wind concerns?

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Current DP's. This will give a general Idea. The lowest DP's are right along the NC/SC Border off of latest hourly obs. I'm watching to see how long it takes those single digit readings in N GA and TN to saturate.

actdew_600x405.jpg

Although temp.'s are near the projections, TD's are running a bit lower than recent NAM runs have projected along the ILM-SSI corridor. Also, winds are a little more northerly (less easterly component) vs. the projections. That tells me that the cold/dry air is likely going to hang tougher than what the NAM projected and could have implications for late tonight into tomorrow when the precip. makes it to this region. Although this drier air would eat up more of the precip. to evap., this would also probably result in a longer duration of ZR than has been projected. Let's see if this persists into this evening.

Meanwhile, if the RUC initialization is accurate, the GOM sfc low is continuing to track a good bit (say 100 miles or so) further south than the model consensus has had. Perhaps, this is loosely related to the cold/dry air to the north hanging extra tough over the SE. Should this track continue to be south of projections, it would most likely imply colder temp.'s to its north and more wintry precip. for the SE coastal areas.

19Z RUC init.:

post-882-0-11839900-1294603522.gif

Stormsfury, if you're reading this, I'd love to hear what you have to say!

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still catching up:

Isn't this StormFury's area?

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC

1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

EVENING...

.A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST

TODAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING

OVER THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LATE MONDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN

PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION

WILL AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...

CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING.

SCZ048-050-052-100030-

/O.CON.KCHS.WW.Y.0001.110110T0900Z-110110T2200Z/

BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...CHARLESTON...

DANIEL ISLAND...NAVAL WEAPONS STATION CHARLESTON

1124 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM

EST MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST

MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATION: ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...MAINLY WEST

OF ROUTE 17.

* TIMING: BEGINNING MONDAY AROUND 4 TO 7 AM AND CONTINUING

THROUGH 3 TO 5 PM.

Yep, local NWS is calling for ice late then changing to rain in the morning.

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18z NAM looks like the 15z SREF in that it jackpots Chattanooga,TN to Greenville,SC to Charlotte,NC with nearly a foot of snow!

Edit: verbatim, The 18z NAM has dropped a foot of snow in mby by 1pm Monday and at this point it's still snowing but should switch to sleet within the hour.

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Excellent write up and way to stick to your guns forecasting from the pattern/setup and using models as tools and not Gospel. It took courage to stand your ground against model consensus the last few days, but just like Christmas storm, you should get rewarded again. You have MBY right on the 6 inch line and Ive been saying 3-6 since Friday. Should be alot of fun and I hope those upstate Guys/Gals get their due along with the Chattanooga folks. Big Frosty might even be happy now.

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