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The Jan 9-10 Storm Part 4


Cheeznado

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Check out these insane low DP's. -0???????? Man, the precip is going to have to chew through a lot of cold, dry air. Would any Pros mind chiming in on this? Thanks for any input!

Charlotte/Douglas International Airport

Lat: 35.21 Lon: -80.94 Elev: 758

Last Update on Jan 9, 11:52 am EST

Mostly Cloudy

30 °F

(-1 °C)Humidity:27 %Wind Speed:CalmBarometer:30.25" (1025.1 mb)Dewpoint:-0 °F (-18 °C)Visibility:10.00 mi.More Local Wx:3 Day History

Rankin, I currently have a dp of -6 so yes it will take a good bit of precip but models already take that into account I believe. Also with such low dp as the moisture does being to fall into it our temps are going way down

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17z RUC is the first RUC run which really shows the s/w dampened out (at 17 hours)

Watching the hourly RUC intently during the Christmas storm made me go mad. I think this time I'm going to limit my RUC watching and pay more attention to radars and current SLP strength/movement.

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ARW snow cover fwiw....(from another forum)

5339468967_6b5c935df4_b.jpg

Would that be from just the storm or total on the ground. If not, it would be wrong, because this area has anywhere from 4" to over a foot( in respect to elevation from lowest to highest) that won't be melting very much from now until then.

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What a Forecasted Storm....

Been reading and catching up on the Action posted this morning..

Here, also We went below forecasted Lows, with our Low temp being 24.9.... Which is pretty dern cold considering how close I'm to the coast & beachs..

Thanks to ALL the METS that provide info & forecast's here on this board...

I read what StormsFury had said about the "Marine Layer", and how it affects US in SE and lower Carolinas/GA, from getting Snow, ie: the dreaded Warm Nose... When Winds are from NE/SE etc, preventing us from getting snow, but LOTS of rain.... ALWAYS... Or the way the Low ingest's Marine Layer Air going up the coast preventing us from getting acculalating snows...

(SF could you PM ME with that info in Layman's terms? maybe with graphics?)

MODS, I KNOW we are in Storm Mode, and this isn't a IMBY post...

I was reading our Local AFD, and to say the least, I'm like WHAT!!!!!!!

With all the precip. forcasted to fall, NO worries about *Warm Nose's" or anything like that, very cold air "Locked" in place...

NOW they are impling that We'll not see much because of..... drum roll please.......

DRY AIR?! HOW can this be?! With this Low, that by reading, is getting very JUICY; coming up the coast, just offshore?

PLEASE explain this to Me? As I also looked at that map of that (I forget) whom posted of the RED "X" of best lift & diveragence... and looking at the lastest, it looked as if I'm in "the Zone" of it.....The far SE/SW zone

So onwards to the Latest Local AFD

best chance of SN WE've had in awhile and WE have to fight DRY AIR?

KILM valid 1224 PM EST sun Jan 9 2011

Synopsis...

dry Arctic high pressure will remain over the area today. A

significant storm system will produce a wintry mix of

precipitation Monday morning through Tuesday morning across the

forecast area. Cold high pressure will build over the eastern

Carolinas in the wake of this storm system through middle week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...

as of 10 am Sunday...cold and sunny day on tap...previous forecast

right on track...1023 mb high pressure over Illinois this morning

will migrate east into the Ohio Valley by tonight. This will

maintain a flow of very dry and cold air from the Middle- Atlantic

States into the Carolinas. In the upper levels a strong southern

stream disturbance in southern Texas will move into Tennessee by

late tonight. Surface low pressure developing along the Texas Gulf

Coast this morning will approach the Florida Panhandle tonight...

with a shield of overrunning precipitation expected to be pushing

into the Carolinas after midnight from the southwest.

NAM/GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings and traditional thickness-based

techniques all show precipitation will be purely snow at the onset.

The question is how quickly will measurable/accumulating snow make

it down to the surface given the tremendously dry air in place

through daybreak? Models show midnight dewpoints over Wilmington

ranging from around 10 degree f at the surface to about -30 f at 7000

feet above ground level. It will take a good deal of precipitation sacrificing itself

through evaporation to get anything substantial down to the ground. Through 12z (7 am) our probability of precipitation range from 30-40 percent in the Pee Dee

region...to only 10-20 percent closer to the coast and over southeast North

Carolina...although non-measurable snow flurries may become

rather widespread after 5 am.

Highs today will struggle to reach 40 across NE South Carolina...

with upper 30s expected over southeast North Carolina. With clouds rapidly

increasing this evening there will only be a narrow window for fair

radiational cooling...perhaps lasting up to 3-4 hours over southeast North

Carolina. Our forecast lows are at or warmer than the warmest MOS

guidance...upper 20s over NE South Carolina with middle 20s over southeast

North Carolina.

&&

(My Edit, now it says DEEP GOM Moisture?)

Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...

as of 3 am Sunday...deep moisture ahead of Gulf Coast low will be in

place at the start of the period.At first dry low level air will

likely result in a lot of evaporation...but snow should start

reaching the ground within the first few hours of the forecast

across a large portion of the forecast area. Forecast soundings and

partial thickness schemes suggest snow changing to rain during the

late morning(sc) or early afternoon(nc) along the coast while far

inland areas remain snow for most of Monday before changing briefly

to sleet and then finally freezing rain Monday night. Areas in between

will see a wide range of conditions. Snow will change over to sleet

and freezing rain during the afternoon or evening hours depending on

distance from the coast and latitude. Eventually all but the

farthest inland locations will turn to rain as warm air spreads over

the area Monday night into Tuesday.

Continue to see good agreement within the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with

confidence continuing to build. Went ahead and upgraded the inland

tier of counties to a warning while leaving the rest of the watch

unchanged. Main reason for not adding more counties to the warning

has to do with total amounts and not a question of if the event will

occur.Change over to sleet/freezing rain/and rain may end up

keeping several of the counties currently in the watch from reaching

the required 2 inches of snow or the 0.25 inch of ice.

Storm is off Cape Fear Tuesday morning but by that point very dry middle

and upper level air will have shut off most if not all precipitation. May

see some brief light rain through the first half of Tuesday

morning...especially northeast. By midday the area will start to dry

out though skies will remain cloudy into Tuesday night with low level

cloud cover hanging around as high pressure builds in.

Either We have dry air or not, on/off/on again, with WARM AiR coming in the middle of all this?

METS could any or ALL of you kindly explain this scenerio? why or how this would happen?

It sounds like a flip-flop forecast, or (they) NWS just doesn't know what will happen?

ie: Following the Models? Live by the Model or die by it?

Onwards to current Obs.....

34.8 °F Clear

Windchill:28 °F

Humidity:38%

Dew Point:12 °F

Wind:9.1 mph from the NNW

Wind Gust:12.1 mph

Pressure:30.23 in (Steady)

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Dry air and low dew points is likely the reality we will have to deal with. Usually it means prepare for 4 hours of radar returns overhead with nothing on the surface. Hope I'm wrong but my analysis and intuition tells me it will be the case.

Yes but if the precip gets here quicker and there is more moisture then anticipated then it should make up for it...or so my weenie heart tells me.

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from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below:

	SN	IP	ZR
CLT	0.491	0.227	0.02
AVL	0.83	0.037	n/a
HKY	0.693	0.048	n/a
RDU	0.11	0.16	0.112
GSO	0.299	0.172	0.022
TNB	0.503	0.071	n/a
CAE	0.3	0.052	0.278
GSP	0.687	0.339	n/a
AHN	0.5	0.313	0.107
ATL	0.3	0.2	0.154
CHA	1.263	0.189	n/a

CHA looks golden.

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from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below:

	SN	IP	ZR
CLT	0.491	0.227	0.02
AVL	0.83	0.037	n/a
HKY	0.693	0.048	n/a
RDU	0.11	0.16	0.112
GSO	0.299	0.172	0.022
TNB	0.503	0.071	n/a
CAE	0.3	0.052	0.278
GSP	0.687	0.339	n/a
AHN	0.5	0.313	0.107
ATL	0.3	0.2	0.154
[size="4"][b]CHA	1.263	0.189 [/b][/size]   n/a

Good grief that's a lot of snow with maybe higher than 10:1 ratios?

CHA looks golden.

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from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below:

	SN	IP	ZR
CLT	0.491	0.227	0.02
AVL	0.83	0.037	n/a
HKY	0.693	0.048	n/a
RDU	0.11	0.16	0.112
GSO	0.299	0.172	0.022
TNB	0.503	0.071	n/a
CAE	0.3	0.052	0.278
GSP	0.687	0.339	n/a
AHN	0.5	0.313	0.107
ATL	0.3	0.2	0.154
CHA	1.263	0.189	n/a

CHA looks golden.

Good news on the ice too. No one looks to get very much ZR.

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Yup,

CHA is showing 14.4!!!

from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below:

	SN	IP	ZR
CLT	0.491	0.227	0.02
AVL	0.83	0.037	n/a
HKY	0.693	0.048	n/a
RDU	0.11	0.16	0.112
GSO	0.299	0.172	0.022
TNB	0.503	0.071	n/a
CAE	0.3	0.052	0.278
GSP	0.687	0.339	n/a
AHN	0.5	0.313	0.107
ATL	0.3	0.2	0.154
CHA	1.263	0.189	n/a

CHA looks golden.

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from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below:

	SN	IP	ZR

CLT 0.491 0.227 0.02

AVL 0.83 0.037 n/a

HKY 0.693 0.048 n/a

RDU 0.11 0.16 0.112

GSO 0.299 0.172 0.022

TNB 0.503 0.071 n/a

CAE 0.3 0.052 0.278

GSP 0.687 0.339 n/a

AHN 0.5 0.313 0.107

ATL 0.3 0.2 0.154

CHA 1.263 0.189 n/a[/code

CHA looks golden.

THanks! I'm assuming ATL is at the airport?

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THanks! I'm assuming ATL is at the airport?

Yeah, and they're right in the middle of the sharp cutoff between a big snow and more of a sleet/ice event IMO. You're a good 40 miles north of the station so in this situation the numbers are pretty meaningless for you, and really most people north of the perimeter (not that there won't be mixing issues in these areas though).

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