BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Considering the ARW gave me NOTHING at 0z, it's a big move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Check out these insane low DP's. -0???????? Man, the precip is going to have to chew through a lot of cold, dry air. Would any Pros mind chiming in on this? Thanks for any input! Charlotte/Douglas International Airport Lat: 35.21 Lon: -80.94 Elev: 758 Last Update on Jan 9, 11:52 am EST Mostly Cloudy 30 °F (-1 °C)Humidity:27 %Wind Speed:CalmBarometer:30.25" (1025.1 mb)Dewpoint:-0 °F (-18 °C)Visibility:10.00 mi.More Local Wx:3 Day History Rankin, I currently have a dp of -6 so yes it will take a good bit of precip but models already take that into account I believe. Also with such low dp as the moisture does being to fall into it our temps are going way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There's scattered areas of 1.5" QPF on the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There's scattered areas of 1.5" QPF on the NMM. Just insane, I hate to believe it in case it's more on the lighter side but it's getting harder and harder not to think this is going to be HUGE event for us, especially looking at the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Now this might not be entirely right but it looks like the NMM has some foot + totals around Gaston and Meck. counties. I might bet soon that we'll see widespread foot-plus amts between the I-85 and Hwy 74 corridors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have heard this too in the past but I have noticed its been inconsistent. I am wondering if someone grades how these short term models perform. ARW snow cover fwiw....(from another forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ARW snow cover fwiw....(from another forum) The 6-10" spots south of Columbus and Macon really make me question how reliable that map is. Looks great, but not very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That's from the 0z run, Dixie. The 12z run would spread the snow much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ARW snow cover fwiw....(from another forum) I think that was the 00z run that the 12z is a huge departure from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep. That is a wright weather map......OZ run also Also, the 12Z has ALL of the upstate into 10-15" range. at 48HRS... ARW snow cover fwiw....(from another forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The latest ARW shows a good swath of precip moving well into NC just bordering on the western Triad area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 17z RUC is the first RUC run which really shows the s/w dampened out (at 17 hours) Watching the hourly RUC intently during the Christmas storm made me go mad. I think this time I'm going to limit my RUC watching and pay more attention to radars and current SLP strength/movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ARW snow cover fwiw....(from another forum) Would that be from just the storm or total on the ground. If not, it would be wrong, because this area has anywhere from 4" to over a foot( in respect to elevation from lowest to highest) that won't be melting very much from now until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does anyone know the bias for the RUC? Seems like during the Christmas storm it had a bias of moving things too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well at 36 the NMM has 1012 SLP and the ARW has a 1016 SLP which is similar to the NAM/GFS so the NMM is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What a Forecasted Storm.... Been reading and catching up on the Action posted this morning.. Here, also We went below forecasted Lows, with our Low temp being 24.9.... Which is pretty dern cold considering how close I'm to the coast & beachs.. Thanks to ALL the METS that provide info & forecast's here on this board... I read what StormsFury had said about the "Marine Layer", and how it affects US in SE and lower Carolinas/GA, from getting Snow, ie: the dreaded Warm Nose... When Winds are from NE/SE etc, preventing us from getting snow, but LOTS of rain.... ALWAYS... Or the way the Low ingest's Marine Layer Air going up the coast preventing us from getting acculalating snows... (SF could you PM ME with that info in Layman's terms? maybe with graphics?) MODS, I KNOW we are in Storm Mode, and this isn't a IMBY post... I was reading our Local AFD, and to say the least, I'm like WHAT!!!!!!! With all the precip. forcasted to fall, NO worries about *Warm Nose's" or anything like that, very cold air "Locked" in place... NOW they are impling that We'll not see much because of..... drum roll please....... DRY AIR?! HOW can this be?! With this Low, that by reading, is getting very JUICY; coming up the coast, just offshore? PLEASE explain this to Me? As I also looked at that map of that (I forget) whom posted of the RED "X" of best lift & diveragence... and looking at the lastest, it looked as if I'm in "the Zone" of it.....The far SE/SW zone So onwards to the Latest Local AFD best chance of SN WE've had in awhile and WE have to fight DRY AIR? KILM valid 1224 PM EST sun Jan 9 2011 Synopsis... dry Arctic high pressure will remain over the area today. A significant storm system will produce a wintry mix of precipitation Monday morning through Tuesday morning across the forecast area. Cold high pressure will build over the eastern Carolinas in the wake of this storm system through middle week. && Near term /through tonight/... as of 10 am Sunday...cold and sunny day on tap...previous forecast right on track...1023 mb high pressure over Illinois this morning will migrate east into the Ohio Valley by tonight. This will maintain a flow of very dry and cold air from the Middle- Atlantic States into the Carolinas. In the upper levels a strong southern stream disturbance in southern Texas will move into Tennessee by late tonight. Surface low pressure developing along the Texas Gulf Coast this morning will approach the Florida Panhandle tonight... with a shield of overrunning precipitation expected to be pushing into the Carolinas after midnight from the southwest. NAM/GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings and traditional thickness-based techniques all show precipitation will be purely snow at the onset. The question is how quickly will measurable/accumulating snow make it down to the surface given the tremendously dry air in place through daybreak? Models show midnight dewpoints over Wilmington ranging from around 10 degree f at the surface to about -30 f at 7000 feet above ground level. It will take a good deal of precipitation sacrificing itself through evaporation to get anything substantial down to the ground. Through 12z (7 am) our probability of precipitation range from 30-40 percent in the Pee Dee region...to only 10-20 percent closer to the coast and over southeast North Carolina...although non-measurable snow flurries may become rather widespread after 5 am. Highs today will struggle to reach 40 across NE South Carolina... with upper 30s expected over southeast North Carolina. With clouds rapidly increasing this evening there will only be a narrow window for fair radiational cooling...perhaps lasting up to 3-4 hours over southeast North Carolina. Our forecast lows are at or warmer than the warmest MOS guidance...upper 20s over NE South Carolina with middle 20s over southeast North Carolina. && (My Edit, now it says DEEP GOM Moisture?) Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/... as of 3 am Sunday...deep moisture ahead of Gulf Coast low will be in place at the start of the period.At first dry low level air will likely result in a lot of evaporation...but snow should start reaching the ground within the first few hours of the forecast across a large portion of the forecast area. Forecast soundings and partial thickness schemes suggest snow changing to rain during the late morning(sc) or early afternoon(nc) along the coast while far inland areas remain snow for most of Monday before changing briefly to sleet and then finally freezing rain Monday night. Areas in between will see a wide range of conditions. Snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon or evening hours depending on distance from the coast and latitude. Eventually all but the farthest inland locations will turn to rain as warm air spreads over the area Monday night into Tuesday. Continue to see good agreement within the GFS and European model (ecmwf) with confidence continuing to build. Went ahead and upgraded the inland tier of counties to a warning while leaving the rest of the watch unchanged. Main reason for not adding more counties to the warning has to do with total amounts and not a question of if the event will occur.Change over to sleet/freezing rain/and rain may end up keeping several of the counties currently in the watch from reaching the required 2 inches of snow or the 0.25 inch of ice. Storm is off Cape Fear Tuesday morning but by that point very dry middle and upper level air will have shut off most if not all precipitation. May see some brief light rain through the first half of Tuesday morning...especially northeast. By midday the area will start to dry out though skies will remain cloudy into Tuesday night with low level cloud cover hanging around as high pressure builds in. Either We have dry air or not, on/off/on again, with WARM AiR coming in the middle of all this? METS could any or ALL of you kindly explain this scenerio? why or how this would happen? It sounds like a flip-flop forecast, or (they) NWS just doesn't know what will happen? ie: Following the Models? Live by the Model or die by it? Onwards to current Obs..... 34.8 °F Clear Windchill:28 °F Humidity:38% Dew Point:12 °F Wind:9.1 mph from the NNW Wind Gust:12.1 mph Pressure:30.23 in (Steady) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NMM gives Raleigh in excess of .75" of QPF and really spreads the precip northward. This is the 48-hour precip. LINK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dry air and low dew points is likely the reality we will have to deal with. Usually it means prepare for 4 hours of radar returns overhead with nothing on the surface. Hope I'm wrong but my analysis and intuition tells me it will be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW, the NMM model had .5 inches of precip for the NON-CLIPPER from a few days ago where there ended up being less than .1 I believe. Don't take the precip amounts seriously. Do take trends and placement I think because it did have the precip in the correct spot the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dry air and low dew points is likely the reality we will have to deal with. Usually it means prepare for 4 hours of radar returns overhead with nothing on the surface. Hope I'm wrong but my analysis and intuition tells me it will be the case. Yes but if the precip gets here quicker and there is more moisture then anticipated then it should make up for it...or so my weenie heart tells me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below: SN IP ZR CLT 0.491 0.227 0.02 AVL 0.83 0.037 n/a HKY 0.693 0.048 n/a RDU 0.11 0.16 0.112 GSO 0.299 0.172 0.022 TNB 0.503 0.071 n/a CAE 0.3 0.052 0.278 GSP 0.687 0.339 n/a AHN 0.5 0.313 0.107 ATL 0.3 0.2 0.154 CHA 1.263 0.189 n/a CHA looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NMM gives Raleigh in excess of .75" of QPF and really spreads the precip northward. This is the 48-hour precip. LINK. I like these 6-panel looks from PSU http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_12z/wrfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below: SN IP ZR CLT 0.491 0.227 0.02 AVL 0.83 0.037 n/a HKY 0.693 0.048 n/a RDU 0.11 0.16 0.112 GSO 0.299 0.172 0.022 TNB 0.503 0.071 n/a CAE 0.3 0.052 0.278 GSP 0.687 0.339 n/a AHN 0.5 0.313 0.107 ATL 0.3 0.2 0.154 [size="4"][b]CHA 1.263 0.189 [/b][/size] n/a Good grief that's a lot of snow with maybe higher than 10:1 ratios? CHA looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below: SN IP ZR CLT 0.491 0.227 0.02 AVL 0.83 0.037 n/a HKY 0.693 0.048 n/a RDU 0.11 0.16 0.112 GSO 0.299 0.172 0.022 TNB 0.503 0.071 n/a CAE 0.3 0.052 0.278 GSP 0.687 0.339 n/a AHN 0.5 0.313 0.107 ATL 0.3 0.2 0.154 CHA 1.263 0.189 n/a CHA looks golden. Good news on the ice too. No one looks to get very much ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yup, CHA is showing 14.4!!! from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below: SN IP ZR CLT 0.491 0.227 0.02 AVL 0.83 0.037 n/a HKY 0.693 0.048 n/a RDU 0.11 0.16 0.112 GSO 0.299 0.172 0.022 TNB 0.503 0.071 n/a CAE 0.3 0.052 0.278 GSP 0.687 0.339 n/a AHN 0.5 0.313 0.107 ATL 0.3 0.2 0.154 CHA 1.263 0.189 n/a CHA looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 from looking closely at the bufkit skew t's for the 12z nam, this is what i came up with below: SN IP ZRCLT 0.491 0.227 0.02AVL 0.83 0.037 n/aHKY 0.693 0.048 n/aRDU 0.11 0.16 0.112GSO 0.299 0.172 0.022TNB 0.503 0.071 n/aCAE 0.3 0.052 0.278GSP 0.687 0.339 n/aAHN 0.5 0.313 0.107ATL 0.3 0.2 0.154CHA 1.263 0.189 n/a[/codeCHA looks golden.THanks! I'm assuming ATL is at the airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 THanks! I'm assuming ATL is at the airport? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z ukie looks beautiful. http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_18HR.gif http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_24HR.gif http://grib2.com/ukmet/CONUS_UKMET_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_36HR.gif http://grib2.com/gem/CONUS_GEM_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_36HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Brandon any thoughts on the NMM and ARW for Central NC?? yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 THanks! I'm assuming ATL is at the airport? Yeah, and they're right in the middle of the sharp cutoff between a big snow and more of a sleet/ice event IMO. You're a good 40 miles north of the station so in this situation the numbers are pretty meaningless for you, and really most people north of the perimeter (not that there won't be mixing issues in these areas though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.