Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 RDU: .24 Total QPF .06 probably snow, then the rest junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You have to love the look of where you are sitting Bob. Thinking about all of those events that skipped you in the valley, you look to make up some serious ground after this event! Good luck! Things can always go wrong, I suppose and Christmas Day was beyond my wildest expectations so I don't feel too bad...the consistency of forecast for this event for here has been pretty remarkable. Hopefully, when we hit this time tomorrow I will be saying "If they could only all be like this one!".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Very Nam..ish to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As I've harped on for days, the models have been under doing qpf with every single snow event in much of the area(TN valley/southern Apps). I'm thinking the 12z NAM is the way to go with this one as it goes along with what has been happening all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I tell you some of these forecast maps people are showing are way too light with the snow accumulations across georgia and south carolina. Folks really should learn to look more at soundings for various locations before making these maps. Why don't you enlighten us with a map of your own. I'd love to see your thoughts on accumulations in the form of a map. The only thing I'm worried about here is that the initial band pushes through here really fast and then stalls to my north. A lot of the SREF members and the RUC look to set that band up to my immediate north. That would mean 4 to 6 inches here instead of the 8 to 12 I'm hoping for. I know Asheville has cashed in on that initial band for 3 separate events over the last 2 winters. It's time to let us guys to the south have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From a NC perspective and the latest guidence I really think the CLT area is looking like they might get a very good storm out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I tell you some of these forecast maps people are showing are way too light with the snow accumulations across georgia and south carolina. Folks really should learn to look more at soundings for various locations before making these maps. I hope you're right, but I noticed the 12Z NAM really shows a sharp cutoff of precip south of I-20, especially in AL. Some of the other short range models show this as well, with the heaviest precip shifting well north. Upper level temps will be an issue as well for the 20 corridor, and the extremely dry air isn't helping our QPF totals any (I'm at 32 with a dewpoint of -2...). More knowledgeable posters, please tell me I'm crazy... I'm still optimistic in a 2-4" snow for Atlanta, and 3-5" or so for MBY though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Now this might not be entirely right but it looks like the NMM has some foot + totals around Gaston and Meck. counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Also, according to the ptype maps, NMM is all snow through 39 hours for almost all of the NC Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As I've harped on for days, the models have been under doing qpf with every single snow event in much of the area(TN valley/southern Apps). I'm thinking the 12z NAM is the way to go with this one as it goes along with what has been happening all season. Lee, the HIRESW NMM 12 UTC has moved towards you in SW VA. Saw where Morristown is going w/ a WWA advisory for KTRI - mentioned in thoughts at 11:00. It will be interesting if they have to rethink that after seeing the RUC and other short range models. That short range WRF, on the other hand, sends it south. Others are trending north now. It is going to be close. I have seen many storms predicted for this area that went north and we got rain. I have seen very few predicted just to our south and we didn't get anything. I am still reserved after the 12z GFS though. Radar looks nice BTW. Hit me w/ a PM after this afternoon's runs are done. I'd like to know what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Check out these insane low DP's. -0???????? Man, the precip is going to have to chew through a lot of cold, dry air. Would any Pros mind chiming in on this? Thanks for any input! Charlotte/Douglas International Airport Lat: 35.21 Lon: -80.94 Elev: 758 Last Update on Jan 9, 11:52 am EST Mostly Cloudy 30 °F (-1 °C)Humidity:27 %Wind Speed:CalmBarometer:30.25" (1025.1 mb)Dewpoint:-0 °F (-18 °C)Visibility:10.00 mi.More Local Wx:3 Day History Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even the NMM shows precip having an extremely hard time making it past CLTish into Burlington/CH/Durham/Raleigh/etc. EDIT: There it goes! Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looking at radar, the precip seems to be ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why don't you enlighten us with a map of your own. I'd love to see your thoughts on accumulations in the form of a map. The only thing I'm worried about here is that the initial band pushes through here really fast and then stalls to my north. A lot of the SREF members and the RUC look to set that band up to my immediate north. That would mean 4 to 6 inches here instead of the 8 to 12 I'm hoping for. I know Asheville has cashed in on that initial band for 3 separate events over the last 2 winters. It's time to let us guys to the south have some fun. I will probably give it a try but honestly I'm not good at it when I do (it looks tacky/crummy). I hope you're right, but I noticed the 12Z NAM really shows a sharp cutoff of precip south of I-20, especially in AL. Some of the other short range models show this as well, with the heaviest precip shifting well north. Upper level temps will be an issue as well for the 20 corridor, and the extremely dry air isn't helping our QPF totals any (I'm at 32 with a dewpoint of -2...). More knowledgeable posters, please tell me I'm crazy... I'm still optimistic in a 2-4" snow for Atlanta, and 3-5" or so for MBY though. Yeah I was referring to areas mainly along and north of highway 78..northern burbs of atlanta to athens to greenwood to north of columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looking at radar, the precip seems to be ahead of schedule. Wouldnt be shocked if it was...overrunning events are almost always fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Also, according to the ptype maps, NMM is all snow through 39 hours for almost all of the NC Piedmont. I know this is a large map but DAMN!!! Loving the totals on the NC/SC line!! 1988 style totals and enhancement, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Snow is probably shutting off at hour 42 around the upstate and piedmont of NC because the 700MB Rh is leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Even the NMM shows precip having an extremely hard time making it past CLTish into Burlington/CH/Durham/Raleigh/etc. EDIT: There it goes! Woohoo! No it doesn't. Aside from the RGEM, it's the only model that shows non-trivial precip in the Triangle, upwards of a half inch, taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Did you happen to get the QPF for 12z NAM, less ice? The 12z Nam was garbage for CAE. I'll buy it after 18z maybe. The Nam starts us as sleet... and 2.5" snow, going back to sleet, then frz rain, then snow, then freezing rain.. so around 1/4" frozen rain. GFS around 4.7" snow with over 1/2" inch of ice. Euro was .48 snow and .17 ice. The euro has the colder 850's, the Nam is cold enough but basically dry slots us on bufkit, the GFS doesn't dry slot but hits us good with too much ice. I'm most likely going with a blend of the Euro/GFS right now.... but I don't trust any of it. Nowcast for here probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know this is a large map but DAMN!!! Loving the totals on the NC/SC line!! 1988 style totals and enhancement, This has 1988 written all over it for the Upstate for sure and surrounding areas as well...a foot is very reasonable to believe here now but i'm still not gonna expect that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Updated thoughts for GSP. Liking the early onset. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1215 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...BETWEEN A TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE COAST AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER TX. DRY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. A SURFACE WAVE WAS ANALYZED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. CIRRUS AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HAS SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN GA. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TODAY...LIMITING TEMPERATURES GAINS FORM A COLD MORNING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DIMINISHING WINDS WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT..COMBINED WITH WARMING... WILL BRING WIND CHILL VALUES ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING...AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SW TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...A BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD BE APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS THE VORT MAX MOVES INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER IN SITU CAD AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT GULF COAST CONVECTION POTENTIALLY DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...TRAJECTORY FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE FEEDING THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND SHOULD ORIGINATE IN AREAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF ANY CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TONIGHT ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SO P-TYPE (ALL SNOW) IS NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH 12Z. THIS LEAVES QPF/ACCUMS AND TIMING AS THE ONLY MYSTERIES TO SOLVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT QPF WILL RANGE FROM .25 TO .4 INCHES THROUGH 12Z WEST OF I-26 IN SC...AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 74 IN THE NC MTNS. THIS WOULD YIELD A SOLID 3 OR 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE. IN TERMS OF TIMING...THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEEM TO START A BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. INDEED...THE SREF SHOWS QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN ONSET TIMING AMONG ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS (AS EARLY AS 03Z AND AS LATE AS 09Z FOR THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.) WE HAVE THEREFORE FAVORED THE FASTER ONSET OFFERED BY THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN... SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 17z RUC is the first RUC run which really shows the s/w dampened out (at 17 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No it doesn't. Aside from the RGEM, it's the only model that shows non-trivial precip in the Triangle, upwards of a half inch, taken literally. Yep, unfortunately the NMM usually isn't very good, the ARW seems to perform better and it looks like the NAM/GFS, light precip in central NC. I wish it was the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Updated BMX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The ARW is still a lot better. The 00z ran gave us literally nothing. Now we are 20-30 miles away from the half inch line. Yep, unfortunately the NMM usually isn't very good, the ARW seems to perform better and it looks like the NAM/GFS, light precip in central NC. I wish it was the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lee, the HIRESW NMM 12 UTC has moved towards you in SW VA. Saw where Morristown is going w/ a WWA advisory for KTRI - mentioned in thoughts at 11:00. It will be interesting if they have to rethink that after seeing the RUC and other short range models. That short range WRF, on the other hand, sends it south. Others are trending north now. It is going to be close. I have seen many storms predicted for this area that went north and we got rain. I have seen very few predicted just to our south and we didn't get anything. I am still reserved after the 12z GFS though. Radar looks nice BTW. Hit me w/ a PM after this afternoon's runs are done. I'd like to know what you think. Yeah, KMRX is probably going mainly with the GFS at this point as are many WFO's. I meant to ask them about their thoughts when I called my report in earlier and just completely forgot ( thats what 4-5 hours sleep per night will do for you). I'll converse with them later and see what they may be leaning toward then and pass along via PM to you. One things for sure, if the nams right, much of Tennessee is gonna get a nailing to the likes they've not seen in years! They missed out on the big ones last Winter. Chat and Knox. would be in a snow emergency situ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will probably give it a try but honestly I'm not good at it when I do (it looks tacky/crummy). Yeah I was referring to areas mainly along and north of highway 78..northern burbs of atlanta to athens to greenwood to north of columbia. Gotcha, there does look to be a fairly sharp cutoff in snow totals south of the city (and south of I-20 in general) due to temp and QPF issues unfortunately. The extremely dry air is still making me squirm a bit, I just have to hope that the models are factoring it in well enough to the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, unfortunately the NMM usually isn't very good, the ARW seems to perform better and it looks like the NAM/GFS, light precip in central NC. I wish it was the other way around. Substantial move to the north w/ the ARW...and some more precip into NC than the 0z version. Pretty big move I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The ARW is still a lot better. The 00z ran gave us literally nothing. Now we are 20-30 miles away from the half inch line. And there is still precip coming down at 48. I would be a little more hopefully had WRAL not stated the models are underestimating the dry air, they are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wondred about that too. I've looked at NOAA's WVap Imagery Loop. Yes we have dried some but it seem as tho the SFL is beginning to pump a little moisture this way at the upper levels as the dry pocket looks to be shifting NE. Looks like it's going to be a battleground, especially from the Sandhills to the north and east. And there's no question there's some serious dry air looming. I see this as a now-cast sort of situation late Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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