NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can u post the gsp overlay? On bb here. Delete after please. Just got in from church and catching up. I hope this verifies. In my county Id be getting close to 8 inches while the NE side drops down below 4. Fast Cutoff, but looks like my 3-6 from Friday is still in check for the BY. Gonna be a close call, but when is not here in Randolph County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good luck guys - hope you make up for what we aren't getting here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 anyone notice how the best snow banding on the ruc is oriented in TN? Looks a lot like the SREF/NAM to me, as opposed to the GFS. BTW i'll post a blog update here in a little with a 1st call map. final call will be tonight after 00z runs. Short range models and intense radar staring is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are you sure cause the 12z nam gives me 10 inches of snow and you have me in the 4-8 range? Everybody criticizes your call maps. You're still awesome Phil. He's probably adjusting for dry air. You'll use a couple inches saturating the columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are you sure cause the 12z nam gives me 10 inches of snow and you have me in the 4-8 range? Everybody criticizes your call maps. You're still awesome Phil. Well the Nam BUFKIT is sometimes a bit off... we lose our dendritic growth region moisture sometime in the afternoon, yet the nam still has a good .3-.4" in precip still falling after that it claims is snow because the entire profile is still below freezing. Most of that will take on the form of sleet, which as you know doesn't accumulate too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Greg Fishel is adamant about dry air moving in for the Raleigh area and bringing this whole event to a screeching halt not long after it begins-before midnight Monday anyway. Not sure what models he is looking at because there is a lot of differing info on this forum. He's looking at this: http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/wrf42.html Via Facebook: "Look at the lower left panel. See the dark green over northern North Carolina, and the brown (I am color challenged!) over South Carolina? That tan is dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere poised to roar into NC tomorrow night. Computer models are notoriously bad at continuing to show heavy precipitation even though the moisture needed for that to occur is gone. This storm could end up being largely over by the wee hours of Tuesday morning. That is great news for folks who don't like power outages-not so good for snow lovers." Hanging on one model here and weatherscope and FWIW DT's new map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Despite dry air problems, BUFKIT still gives Triad 4 inches of snow. Although this storm may be very different from recent past ones, it has significantly underestimated snow totals in Triad consistently for the past couple of years. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kgso.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 1134 AM HEAVY SNOW LAKE VILLAGE 33.32N 91.28W 01/09/2011 E2.0 INCH CHICOT AR EMERGENCY MNGR ROUGHLY 2 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIX ACROSS CHICOT COUNTY. NORTH OF LAKE VILLAGE THERE IS SOLID SNOW. FURTHER SOUTH REMAINS A MIX. AROUND EUDORA THERE IS ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SLEET AND SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS REPORTS OF CARS IN DITCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Some ground truth in West Alabama: From twitter: @myfoxstorm Sleet reported in Marengo, Hale, and Sumter counties in West AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 He's looking at this: http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/wrf42.html Via Facebook: "Look at the lower left panel. See the dark green over northern North Carolina, and the brown (I am color challenged!) over South Carolina? That tan is dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere poised to roar into NC tomorrow night. Computer models are notoriously bad at continuing to show heavy precipitation even though the moisture needed for that to occur is gone. This storm could end up being largely over by the wee hours of Tuesday morning. That is great news for folks who don't like power outages-not so good for snow lovers." Hanging on one model here and weatherscope and FWIW DT's new map... Considering how horrible he was on the Christmas storm I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 New: Old: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just got in from church and catching up. I hope this verifies. In my county Id be getting close to 8 inches while the NE side drops down below 4. Fast Cutoff, but looks like my 3-6 from Friday is still in check for the BY. Gonna be a close call, but when is not here in Randolph County. I'm rooting for you but I just don't see it. To much dry air. I think the cutoff for 3" will be a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 FWIW (which isn't much) Euro is colder but keeps it's normal solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php It looks as if radars are starting to fill in where the dry slot was in southern MS and eastern LA. This is a great sign in my humble opinion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Would love to get some informed interpretation of the 500 mb evolution on the 16z RUC. Here are my observations that could use some analysis. From hours 3 until 10, the RUC closes off the s/w. But as you can see at hour 10, the closed feature is separating from the main s/w. Then at hour 14, the main s/w is barreling into Alabama, looking like it's ready to kick some ass. But at hour 16, that lead disturbance dampens and another one is generated in NE Miss, which then crawls just a few miles to the east. Does this have something to do with our lead shortwave interacting with the energy dropping into the Rockies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/usa_None_anim.gif Robert you nailed this one excellet job!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My update: http://www.sandhillswx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There is an excellent powerpoint presentation titled The Effects of Upstream Convection on Downstream Precipitation by Kelly Mahoney and Gary Lackmann. It explains how convection in different orientations can either increase or decrease downstream precipitation. It is a long power point but is you kind of skim over the main points it can help you know what to look for. Here is the link below. Effect of Upstream Convection on Downstream QPF - Slide 1 Generally speaking, as long as the convection doesn't start to overrun the leading edge of the front, it is additive, and will not rob moisture if I recall. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://images.intell...a_None_anim.gif Robert you nailed this one excellet job!! Accuweather radar is probably not as accurate as you may like. It can make drizzle look like a meso-scale cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This may be a more interesting paralel to this system (except for SW NC). The 12" over Chatham Co. never got farther north and into the triangle because of evaporation of the moisture. IIRC, that was a purely wedge driven event...It was one of the bigger busts on this side of the Apps...NWS issued Winter Storm Warnings and we might have seen a flake or two but was mainly rain....no way that is the case here this time around. Jan 88 is a much better comparison though every storm obviously is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z WRF is a bomb for far north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 IIRC, that was a purely wedge driven event...It was one of the bigger busts on this side of the Apps...NWS issued Winter Storm Warnings and we might have seen a flake or two but was mainly rain....no way that is the case here this time around. Jan 88 is a much better comparison though every storm obviously is different. You have to love the look of where you are sitting Bob. Thinking about all of those events that skipped you in the valley, you look to make up some serious ground after this event! Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sluggo Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Greg Fishel is adamant about dry air moving in for the Raleigh area and bringing this whole event to a screeching halt not long after it begins-before midnight Monday anyway. Not sure what models he is looking at because there is a lot of differing info on this forum. I wondred about that too. I've looked at NOAA's WVap Imagery Loop. Yes we have dried some but it seem as tho the SFL is beginning to pump a little moisture this way at the upper levels as the dry pocket looks to be shifting NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This AFD from Tall. suggests that only the higher vertical resolution models are seeing the very shallow cold air: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 842 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 ...WINTER STORM STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA... UPDATE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE 06Z GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS STILL THE WARM SOLUTION AND THE NAM IS STILL THE COLD SOLUTION. WE WILL BE EXAMINING CLOSELY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE REGION AND COMPARING THEM TO SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS AND INITIALIZATIONS TO TRY TO MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION ON WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. A DECISION WILL BE MADE ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IN TERMS OF MODEL BEHAVIOR LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT...HAVE NOTICED A COUPLE OF INTERESTING THINGS. IN GENERAL...THE WARMER MODELS ARE THE ONES WITH THE COARSER RESOLUTION (I.E. GFS) AND THE COLDER MODELS ARE THE ONES WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION (I.E. NAM AND LOCAL WRF)...AT LEAST FOR OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AN IMPORTANT CLUE IS THE FACT THAT OUR LOCALLY RUN WRF (12 KM WITH A 4 KM NEST) IS USING THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...AND IT IS STILL DECIDEDLY IN THE COLD CAMP. THIS COULD IMPLY THAT THE GFS INITIAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT PLAYING A PARTICULARLY BIG ROLE (ALTHOUGH STILL LIKELY SOME ROLE) IN CAUSING THE GFS TO BE IN THE WARM CAMP...OTHERWISE WE WOULD LIKELY SEE OUR LOCAL WRF WITH WARMER SOLUTIONS THAN IT HAS BEEN SHOWING. ONE COULD ARGUE THAT MAYBE THE WRF JUST HAS A BIG COLD BIAS...BUT SUPPORTING EVIDENCE TO THE ORIGINAL HYPOTHESIS IS THAT ALTHOUGH A LOT OF WRF-BASED GUIDANCE IS IN THE COLD CAMP...THE WRFS THAT ARE RUN WITH SLIGHTLY COARSER RESOLUTION THAN THE 12 KM NAM ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY WARMER...AT LEAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS SEEN THROUGH LOOKING AT THE WDTB (WARNING DECISION TRAINING BRANCH) WRF ENSEMBLE IN BUFKIT...WHICH IS A COLLECTION OF WRF RUNS WITH A RESOLUTION OF 24 KM. IN GENERAL...THESE APPEAR TO BE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN THE 12 KM NAM RUNS. ALSO OF NOTE IN LOOKING AT THESE SOLUTIONS...THE ARW CORE RUNS ALL SEEM A TAD COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING NMM CORE RUNS FOR OUR AREA WITHIN THIS PARTICULAR ENSEMBLE. MEANWHILE...THE WRF MEMBERS THAT ARE AVAILABLE IN THE SREF ARE ALL A TAD WARMER THAN THE WDTB WRF ENSEMBLE...AND THE SREF MEMBERS ARE ALL RUN AT 32 KM RESOLUTION. SOME INTERESTING FOOD FOR THOUGHT THERE PERHAPS. THERE IS SOME PHYSICAL BASIS FOR THIS APPARENT PHENOMENON IN THIS PARTICULAR METEOROLOGICAL SCENARIO GIVEN THAT THE COLD AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE IS VERY SHALLOW...AND THUS IT MAY TAKE A MODEL WITH A HIGHER VERTICAL RESOLUTION TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm rooting for you but I just don't see it. To much dry air. I think the cutoff for 3" will be a bit further south. dry air is always an issue in randolph county. Not very confident about this one, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yes please!! That would match very well with the recent wetter trends this morning!\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro 12z gave CAE more moisture this run with less of an ice storm. CAE: .65 total atleast .48 being all snow, the rest .17 nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The ARW has also made a huge jump north: Compared to: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I tell you some of these forecast maps people are showing are way too light with the snow accumulations across georgia and south carolina. Folks really should learn to look more at soundings for various locations before making these maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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