Midwest Thanksgiving Storm...

[csnavywx]

Even bigger differences between the NAM and GFS on this run at 84 hr. NAM insists on bringing it down considerably stronger and further west as evidenced by the 200 meter difference in heights near Seattle.

[Thundersnow12]

Even bigger differences between the NAM and GFS on this run at 84 hr. NAM insists on bringing it down considerably stronger and further west as evidenced by the 200 meter difference in heights near Seattle.

ya its seems the past few runs the NAM has been showing stronger s/w's then what the GFS has been showing.

[BowMeHunter]

I'm getting to the point of

[snowstormcanuck]

A number of the 6z GEFS were showing the further west/stronger depiction of this storm.

[BowMeHunter]

At least down wind of the lakes will see snow.. Betcha Ontario lights up like my arse after a night of eating the 2nd degree Burn Doritos and swilling Steele Reserves

[Ajdos]

The storm will come back on the later runs most likely, even stronger.. FUN FUN FUN

[snowstormcanuck]

The storm will come back on the later runs most likely, even stronger.. FUN FUN FUN

It's kind of a double edged sword. An extremely strong storm is probably good if you live in MN, but for the rest of us it means rain most likely. A weaker storm would likely spread a broader swath of light snow for a greater number of us.

I'd like my first coating so the latter scenario works better for me.

[snowstormcanuck]

12z GGEM has a 1005 low over Quad Cities at 132.

[JoMo]

12z GGEM looks pretty much like the GFS through 132. Bit farther west with the energy over MN and drops the energy in the SW farther south in California.

[snowstormcanuck]

12z GGEM looks pretty much like the GFS through 132. Bit farther west with the energy over MN and drops the energy in the SW farther south in California.

I gotta disagree. GFS is much broader and weaker with its 500mb energy over the Plains. GGEM has a closed/consolidated H5 low over the Dakotas. Much different at the sfc too. Like I said above, GGEM has a 1005 low over Quad Cities, GFS has an open wave in the TN Valley.

[JoMo]

I gotta disagree. GFS is much broader and weaker with its 500mb energy over the Plains. GGEM has a closed/consolidated H5 low over the Dakotas. Much different at the sfc too. Like I said above, GGEM has a 1005 low over Quad Cities, GFS has an open wave in the TN Valley.

Same, as in crappy.

144 has a 996 over UP of Michigan. Cold front for most everyone.

[snowstormcanuck]

Same, as in crappy.

144 has a 996 over UP of Michigan. Cold front for most everyone.

Ah, that I'll agree with. Maybe that wave over south Texas can become something?

[Srain]

Ah, that I'll agree with. Maybe that wave over south Texas can become something?

That's a new wrinkle via the GGEM and to some extent the GFS. Here's hoping you folks get something worth talking about.

[Ajdos]

There is going to be several waves running along the cold front, so the first l-p associated with the cold front will most likely go through the m/v into the u.p, dragging the cold front, once the cold front reaches the o/v it should slow down as another l-p develops and moves n/w along the front.. We are not just talking about one storm, but several and one of them should be decent.

[Stevo6899]

Hey everyone. I am new to the forum and sort of a weather newbie. I have been tracking the models for just over a year now, and enjoy learning how to analyze them. GGEM isn't very accurate in the long range, like most models. If this storm is going to drop significant snow it will likley be in wisconsin and the upper midwest (I think). I look forward to discussing weather with everyone this winter!

[JoMo]

I think several of the 12z GFS Ensembles may show an overrunning situation somewhere.

[Ajdos]

I think several of the 12z GFS Ensembles may show an overrunning situation somewhere.

I agree the potential is there.

[Omahawx]

And the 12z NOGAPS comes roaring back;

[cmichweather]

And the 12z NOGAPS comes roaring back;

Lock it in, Now i need someone to show me the jma and the korean model please. I won't feel comfortable until i see all possible models. I almost forgot someone post the FIM as well.

[csnavywx]

Interestingly, the 500mb pattern (heights and trough placement) through 84 hours is very similar to the NAM. The result is a more or less classic Panhandle Hooker.

[JoMo]

Lock it in, Now i need someone to show me the jma and the korean model please. I won't feel comfortable until i see all possible models. I almost forgot someone post the FIM as well.

FIM is looking like the GFS as well.

Although it does develop a lot of overrunning precip after 156

[cmichweather]

i'm guessing ukie cuts and the euro will rewrite its upgrades and remember its old ways and find a way to leave energy back in the southwest.

[snowstormcanuck]

EURO at 120 looks like a GFS/GGEM compromise. Front is not as progressive as with the GFS, but the ul trough doesn't look as vigorous/far west as with the GGEM.

[Chicago Storm]

D6 ECMWF has an SLP over Lake Superior.

Energy hanging back in the Southwest.

[snowstormcanuck]

D6 ECMWF has an SLP over Lake Superior.

Energy hanging back in the Southwest.

Congrats mnweather.

[Chicago Storm]

Many of the 12z GFS individual ensemble members have a good storm, with some cutting up west of Chicago.

[snowstormcanuck]

This about sums up my thoughts about this morning's model runs:

[Moneyman]

Powerball with the jinx.

It always happens. You don't post a thread 6+ days out in advance.

[Omahawx]

EURO takes it further northwest;

[mnweather]

Congrats mnweather.

Thank you. But is the storm really that strong to produce heavy precip?