JoMo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 ^ yeah I think the Euro has a stronger lead wave on the above map ^ Day 6 is holding some energy back near the 4 corners area on the 500 MB map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Looks pretty boring probably... Thought it might have potential. See what it does for those off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 D6: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 can you believe it...euro flipped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 ^ yeah I think the Euro has a stronger lead wave on the above map ^ 12z didn't have this lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Looks pretty boring probably... Thought it might have potential. See what it does for those off to the east. Unfortunately. Nothing happens with that energy in the SW on Day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well at least Beau gets soaked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Unfortunately. Nothing happens with that energy in the SW on Day 7? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 so the euro has a lead wave to make it really cold area wide then a 2nd storm on the backend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 so the euro has a lead wave to make it really cold area wide then a 2nd storm on the backend? More like a cold front. Move along, nothing to see here... :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 the battle between 12Z & 0Z runs continues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well looks like Euro is all over the road on this one... At this point I'd say wait til the 12z where it will show something different again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Hard to believe that morphs in to nothing. 12z will prob have a congrats mnweather. GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Hard to believe that morphs in to nothing. 12z will prob have a congrats mnweather, Probably, I think we won't have a true idea for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Might want to back off the IMBYisms Yes. Weenies beware, we are going to be getting tougher with warning procedures and being more liberal with posting restrictions, suspensions, and bannings. Obviously the main focus this week has been getting the site up and running and all that comes with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Some of you guys never learn Models can't even get the front 84 hours with any consistency as the wave breaks down and sends a series of shortwaves eastward. The long-range models have waffled back and forth for the last 3 days. Don't get yourself into a frenzy just yet over one CMC run A lot of weather needs to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Some of you guys never learn Models can't even get the front 84 hours with any consistency as the wave breaks down and sends a series of shortwaves eastward. The long-range models have waffled back and forth for the last 3 days. Don't get yourself into a frenzy just yet over one CMC run A lot of weather needs to happen. Indeed, btw which way you think this might end up, I'm thinking a fairly strong system but not as far west as some models were showing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Indeed, btw which way you think this might end up, I'm thinking a fairly strong system but not as far west as some models were showing earlier. That is a really good question. The level of uncertainty is enormous and anyone making de facto claims are simply not making them in any sort of truth. The operational and ensembles are all over the map and have no consistent trend. The only trend is the GFS with its positive tilt. In terms of probability, with the final trough, I would say the best chances for accumulating snow would be Wisconsin and into the northern Great Lakes heading into the NE with mild cyclogenesis, but not a superbomb like the CMC. Rain seems the most likely scenario almost any way you look at it for areas heading south into central Indiana/Illinois/Ohio Valley except northern Indiana/Ohio with some potential lake effect snow. Chicago will be a tough call, they are right in the middle of this. It does seem reasonable they will see at least some winter precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 This whole setup will depend on how far the cold-front moves east, and when the lP developes and starts moving N/E. Now since it is still early in the season, I think tracks such as through the lakes seem more likely, but once in a while you can get an o/v track.. This storm has the potential to be pretty big, severe weather, and significant snowfall are possible.. Places such as Chicago, to Grand rapids, to Detroit, need to watch for severe weather and potentially a snow storm. Also there might be a secondary low pressure developing along the front, and that one could be the snowier one because the cold air will be already set. In any case it is still very early to tell what will happen, but the consensus is that a big storm is likely and huge travel issues look likely, especially since its Thanksgiving week. So we just got to keep and eye to the * MODELS* Not sky. :*)!~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 So am I seeing this right? The EURO completely whiffed on the final wave (ie, the main storm)? Seems to put more emphasis on an intermediate wave around 120 hours. 6z GFS looks sort of like the 0z, with no wrapped up storm, but it rocks WI's socks. I do pretty good too. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I say nudge it a hair or 2 east and I'll be a happy man Yes please. Somewhere over Cleveland or so would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I found all my friends again!!!! Hello all!!!! Kinda interesting for next week to be certain can't wait to see this evolve, should be a storm somewhere looking at the cold breaking off and coming down as well as some energy there. Just a matter of one big chunk moving out or a strung out series of lows providing a lot of light snows over a wide area. Welcome Justin!!! I'm glad that you found us. I went through the same thing, it just didn't take me as long to get here. I am taking the latter FTW. As I posted in the general forum a couple of days ago, I can envision pieces of energy breaking off and a slow transition to cold for our part of the country. That would still result in some light snows, especially for those north and west. I have no documentation, but it seems that I've seen models, all of them, flip-flop results in the late fall when the first arctic intrusion invades the US. When they have trouble coming to an agreement on whether the result is a bombing low or several weak waves, the weak wave scenario wins. This is just my observation. Could anyone help me verify this or am I just imagining things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Regardless of storm path, this should be a significant LES maker for the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Showed cromartie that map.. Poor guy is already sounding bridge bound. He used to be fun to weenie out with in winter.. Now he wants nothing to do with the stuff. Which I've never understood, how can someone go from a winter weenie to a summer weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Interesting how the broadcast mets go. Last night Brant Miller showed a model running the low through Chicago with snow essentially laying out across last week's line with heavy rain in areas to the south of it. Not a mention of their still being uncertainty in the track. Skilling on the other hand paints a more realistic picture of wait and see . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Clearly the 12z runs are doing better as a whole so 0z GFS must be wrong right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 12 is slower with ejecting the secondary wave, and pulls in the colder air quicker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 12z is somewhat different, I noticed that there is a piece of energy and potentially could merge with the developing low pressure to the south,. Over time the possibility is there for a stronger system, and further west, the cold air is definitely set and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 12 is slower with ejecting the secondary wave, and pulls in the colder air quicker.. 12z is somewhat different, I noticed that there is a piece of energy and potentially could merge with the developing low pressure to the south,. Over time the possibility is there for a stronger system, and further west, the cold air is definitely set and there. A decent change at 500mb once again. Instead of ejecting out in one piece, it appears part of the energy digs further in the Southwest and is eventually combined with another s/w dropping down the backside of the trough. What does initially eject out ends up developing a weak storm/wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 12z NAM and GFS at 84 hours, have been quite busy lately, was actually at a AMS meeting at NIU last night on a talk about the 6/17 tor outbreak given by a met from the MPX office. so had to catch up this morning on this thread, good to see we got Justin back! talk about a flip flop on the euro now. atleast we now have something to watch. NAM GFS nothing like starting out the winter with a tough but fun forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.