Midwest Thanksgiving Storm...

[JoMo]

Great, you just jinxed it.

Great job Powerball...

[Powerball]

Interestingly this is the first time the GFS left so much energy back to the SW.

What's it's also showing this time is more influence with the Eastern Canada PV (and less digging of our PV).

[csnavywx]

00Z GFS: "What storm? lol"

[cromartie]

Testing out tapatalk. Let's see if it works.

[Powerball]

Great job Powerball...

Hey, I don't mind the GFS at all.

I'd rather we start off with a far east/supressed weak storm than what the GGEM or EURO shows.

I

[Chicago WX]

Essentially a frontal passage. Awesome.

[BowMeHunter]

Wouldn't take much to make it something it seems.. Not a real shocking run. Anyways.. Have fun with Euro, y'all... I'm pooped

[Powerball]

BTW, may I remind you guys the GFS is 3/3 thus far this season.

GGEM is only 1 for 3 and the EURO has been clueless since April.

[csnavywx]

Differences between the NAM and GFS are pretty large. Pretty obvious that the GFS still isn't quite buying into the stronger vort dropping in the back of the trough.

[Stebo]

Excellent run to run consistency GFS. Excellent.

Obvious post is obvious.

[snowstormcanuck]

BUFKIT's not out but I'm guessing this run of the GFS gives me 1-3" of snow. I'll take that over a deluge of rain.

[Chicago Storm]

BTW, may I remind you guys the GFS is 3/3 thus far this season.

GGEM is only 1 for 3 and the EURO has been clueless since April.

Are you sure about that?

[csnavywx]

BTW, may I remind you guys the GFS is 3/3 thus far this season.

GGEM is only 1 for 3 and the EURO has been clueless since April.

Either you're taking its flip-flopping solutions seriously or this is a troll post. I'm guessing the latter. And the EURO is still stomping the GFS past 3 days:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

The GGEM scores very close to it in the Nrn Hemisphere.

[Chicago WX]

Are you sure about that?

Euro sucks dude.

[cyclone77]

LMAO @ the new GFS! That's some good stuff right there. The GFS has been considerably more inconsistent this season so far compared to the last few years. The storm is still 6+ days away, but to see this much wavering by the models is a little unsettling. My gut feeling is the new GFS is trash. A deep trough in the west combined with a very strong early season arctic outbreak screams major storm. I expect the GFS to do a complete 180 during the 12z run.

[Powerball]

Either you're taking its flip-flopping solutions seriously or this is a troll post. I'm guessing the latter. And the EURO is still stomping the GFS past 3 days:

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz5.html

The GGEM scores very close to it in the Nrn Hemisphere.

To be fair all the models have been flip-flopping. Granted the GFS has been struggling the least with these storms and until the 18z run it was fairly consistent with the supressed solution.

The supressed solution still can't be discounted given the strength of the blocking. Ultimately the wild card will be the strength of the developing +PNA. If we can dig the PV down a little faster then the stronger solution will verify. Of course if the +PNA is slower to develop then we'll have a weaker storm.

While climatology suggests NW trend, this particular setup could potentially prevent a significant NW shift.

As for the EURO, I would argue it's struggles worst during the mid-range. It's tends to be too slow to break down a pattern. I will agree the EURO was far superior before its most recent update this past spring, granted the GFS just plain sucked before its most recent update as well.

[mnweather]

LMAO @ the new GFS! That's some good stuff right there. The GFS has been considerably more inconsistent this season so far compared to the last few years. The storm is still 6+ days away, but to see this much wavering by the models is a little unsettling. My gut feeling is the new GFS is trash. A deep trough in the west combined with a very strong early season arctic outbreak screams major storm. I expect the GFS to do a complete 180 during the 12z run.

I hope you are right. Wouldn't it be heartbreaking if they all trended to the GFS? I guess anything is possible.

[JoMo]

To be fair all the models have been flip-flopping. Granted the GFS has been struggling the least with these storms and until the 18z run it was fairly consistent with the supressed solution.

The supressed solution still can't be discounted given the strength of the blocking. Ultimately the wild card will be the strength of the developing +PNA. If we can dig the PV down a little faster then the stronger solution will verify. Of course if the +PNA is slower to develop then we'll have a weaker storm.

While climatology suggests NW trend, this particular setup could potentially prevent a significant NW shift.

As for the EURO, I would argue it's struggles worst during the mid-range. It's tends to be too slow to break down a pattern.

And the verification scores for Day 5-6 are much better than the GFS?

[mnweather]

To be fair all the models have been flip-flopping. Granted the GFS has been struggling the least with these storms and until the 18z run it was fairly consistent with the supressed solution.

The supressed solution still can't be discounted given the strength of the blocking. Ultimately the wild card will be the strength of the developing +PNA. If we can dig the PV down a little faster then the stronger solution will verify. Of course if the +PNA is slower to develop then we'll have a weaker storm.

While climatology suggests NW trend, this particular setup could potentially prevent a significant NW shift.

As for the EURO, I would argue it's struggles worst during the mid-range. It's tends to be too slow to break down a pattern. I will agree the EURO was far superior before its most recent update this past spring, granted the GFS just plain sucked before its most recent update as well.

What do you think of the GGEM's performance with this storm?

[Stebo]

LMAO @ the new GFS! That's some good stuff right there. The GFS has been considerably more inconsistent this season so far compared to the last few years. The storm is still 6+ days away, but to see this much wavering by the models is a little unsettling. My gut feeling is the new GFS is trash. A deep trough in the west combined with a very strong early season arctic outbreak screams major storm. I expect the GFS to do a complete 180 during the 12z run.

Heck we will see something different in 6 hours, guaranteed.

[Powerball]

What do you think of the GGEM's performance with this storm?

It's the GGEM, it likes to bomb out every storm there is.

IMO, it just got lucky with the Octobomb.

[Stebo]

To be fair all the models have been flip-flopping. Granted the GFS has been struggling the least with these storms and until the 18z run it was fairly consistent with the supressed solution.

The supressed solution still can't be discounted given the strength of the blocking. Ultimately the wild card will be the strength of the developing +PNA. If we can dig the PV down a little faster then the stronger solution will verify. Of course if the +PNA is slower to develop then we'll have a weaker storm.

While climatology suggests NW trend, this particular setup could potentially prevent a significant NW shift.

As for the EURO, I would argue it's struggles worst during the mid-range. It's tends to be too slow to break down a pattern. I will agree the EURO was far superior before its most recent update this past spring, granted the GFS just plain sucked before its most recent update as well.

GGEM has been pretty good this fall, I wouldnt discount it at all, it just nailed that rainstorm at the beginning of the week days in advance.

[snowstormcanuck]

GGEM out to 12z Tuesday. Looks like it still has the sharper vort dropping down the backside of the W US trough. I'm guessing it'll keep with the stronger/further west solution it had at 12z.

[cyclone77]

I hope you are right. Wouldn't it be heartbreaking if they all trended to the GFS? I guess anything is possible.

I just can't see a major storm not developing with such a powerful trough full of strong shortwaves combining with a very powerful arctic intrusion. I would actually be very surprised if at least a few of the 00z GFS ensemble members didn't show a strong storm system.

[Powerball]

GGEM has been pretty good this fall, I wouldnt discount it at all, it just nailed that rainstorm at the beginning of the week days in advance.

GFS handled it best I thought.

GGEM as always wanted to bomb it out.

[Stebo]

GFS handled it best I thought.

GGEM as always wanted to bomb it out.

GGEM was right days in advance when other models had stuff on the East Coast.

[Chicago Storm]

Granted the GFS has been struggling the least with these storms and until the 18z run it was fairly consistent with the supressed solution.

I guess you didn't see how significant the changes were at 500mb from run to run on the GFS yesterday.

[mnweather]

I just can't see a major storm not developing with such a powerful trough full of strong shortwaves combining with a very powerful arctic intrusion. I would actually be very surprised if at least a few of the 00z GFS ensemble members didn't show a strong storm system.

I think there is going to be something as well. It is just such an emotional rollercoaster this far out. It would be nice if there was good agreement.

[Powerball]

GGEM was right days in advance when other models had stuff on the East Coast.

Eh, I will give the GGEM credit for one thing, it's usually the first ot stiff out a stronger/NW trend.

Of course then it usually gets too far NW/strong with a storm.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The H5 trough is still positively tilted on the gem, I would bet the low heads ENE/NE for 24 hours from there to NW KY and then into S. Indiana.