patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yeah I think he means the better RAOB network of the NW US, sometimes the stuff in Canada misses the RAOBs, and thus this is where satellite imagery comes in handy. Thats exactly what I meant....that and if you look at the upper jet energy it only glances the western Canadian coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Eh, we probably are. But it's still early enough in the season that it won't bother me. I wouldn't rule anything out yet as I have often seen strong highs build S or SSE and push the storm SE on a NE track then turning N as the cold air wraps into the system increasing the PGF and inducing a negative tilt. It's hard to ignore the consistent signal of the cold air just literally "dumping" into the plains, and if you have say a 1040 high centered over western Minn. that system isn't gonna track up Lake Michigan. The GFS loves to drive systems into a ridge about as much as Matt Stafford gets injured. I would not be surprised if in a few days you have a high of at least 1040 somewhere in the plains and the GFS having a strong system driving it NNW into the east edge of the ridge. The biggest key to me will be where does the high get centered, it's strength and the strength of the CAA in the preceding systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Thats exactly what I meant....that and if you look at the upper jet energy it only glances the western Canadian coast. But I was basing it also on the conservative GFS with regards to the locations of the mid and upper energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I wouldn't rule anything out yet as I have often seen strong highs build S or SSE and push the storm SE on a NE track then turning N as the cold air wraps into the system increasing the PGF and inducing a negative tilt. It's hard to ignore the consistent signal of the cold air just literally "dumping" into the plains, and if you have say a 1040 high centered over western Minn. that system isn't gonna track up Lake Michigan. The GFS loves to drive systems into a ridge about as much as Matt Stafford gets injured. I would not be surprised if in a few days you have a high of at least 1040 somewhere in the plains and the GFS having a strong system driving it NNW into the east edge of the ridge. The biggest key to me will be where does the high get centered, it's strength and the strength of the CAA in the preceding systems. Yeah, you do see that with the GFS a lot (Christmas '09 was an example where it was correct though). I do like your thinking with that as it wouldn't take much to throw a wrench in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Trying to jinx it now, eh? Nah no jinxing going on And someone is going to end up a winner in the end so it would be more of a location jinx at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Nah no jinxing going on And someone is going to end up a winner in the end so it would be more of a location jinx at best. Yeah. At least it gets you in the winter mood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yeah. At least it gets you in the winter mood... I have been in the snow mode since the Octobomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I have been in the snow mode since the Octobomb. Eh, that High Risk kept me in a severe weather mood for a couple weeks after, it's a real shame I wasn't 50-60 miles further west or that would've been an awesome day. I literally haven't has as snowflake here since March... so I haven't had a real taste of winter in a long time. At least I'll have Thanksgiving break in the short range for this, so this gives me more time to obsess over storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Skilling starting to talk about this storm as well.. From his facebook, The period which follows nxt wk could get VERY interesting. Thanksgiving travel may be impacted. Details vary, but storm dvlpmnt & a wintry blast follow mid/ late nxt wk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Skilling starting to talk about this storm as well.. From his facebook, The period which follows nxt wk could get VERY interesting. Thanksgiving travel may be impacted. Details vary, but storm dvlpmnt & a wintry blast follow mid/ late nxt wk! IWX, APX, and GRB all talked it up while DTX talked it down and GRR was unsure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Eh, we probably are. But it's still early enough in the season that it won't bother me. At least not for this round.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 At least not for this round.. That's the central IN spirit I'm fond of! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 So is the energy in Colorado going to come out as a first wave? If so, that would drive the cold down into the Ohio Valley...and lower Heights as the next vort comes out with a whole lot of cold air in place that came from a heavily snow covered area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 So is the energy in Colorado going to come out as a first wave? If so, that would drive the cold down into the Ohio Valley...and lower Heights as the next vort comes out with a whole lot of cold air in place that came from a heavily snow covered area. Yes that is the energy for the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 is the energy in Colorado going to come out as a first wave? If so, that would drive the cold down into the Ohio Valley...and lower Heights as the next vort comes out with a whole lot of cold air in place that came from a heavily snow covered area. Actually, that's the third of three s/w's that eject out before the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Help me out is this the same energy back in California on this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Help me out is this the same energy back in California on this map? Correct. What's up in W. Canada is what will slide down and later form the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 that is quite a bit east on the 00z for only a 6 hour time difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Actually, that's the third of three s/w's that eject out before the main storm. He wasn't asking if that was the wave to form the storm, just if that was the first piece of energy which will eject out and push a cold front down, which it will, as will each successive wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 He wasn't asking if that was the wave to form the storm, just if that was the first piece of energy which will eject out and push a cold front down, which it will, as will each successive wave. At least that's how I interpreted his question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 That is correct..can anyone who reads them better tell me or show me what would be ideal position or strengh of a S/W that will come out and drag the front as far south as people in say N. OK to STL to LAF to Det want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 5 days before the 2006 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Euro in three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'm probably gonna get owned because I don't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'm probably gonna get owned because I don't want it. Funny thing is you're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Isn't there almost always a storm threat around Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 GFS says nothing to see here, move along (weak boring system). But we have seen about 5 different things from the GFS so ya I'd take that for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 GFS has a wave out front, then cold...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Isn't there almost always a storm threat around Thanksgiving? Seems like it up north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Excellent run to run consistency GFS. Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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