The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 i'll be in the D as well if we merge our wishcasting together we'll keep this storm south and away from those damn wisconsin posters that get hit every year. I will help wishcast with you to keep it out of WIsonsin and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Booo, go south 100 miles And east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 It could stay where it is, and be a bit stronger. That would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 No need to excite Bowme's I could work with that track if it was later in the season.. I'd prob loose a lot to LM now. If nothing else it sure feels good to be back on the field of weenies for a few preseason tracks together before winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah lets will this with the power of CHI/LAF/DET wishcasting Wishcasting aside it is nice to see GFS is getting a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Crazy weather ahead. Great to see everyone settling in our new home and the increase in members across the Region. Lubbock almost wanted to 'bite' on a Panhandle track in their afternoon disco. Enjoy guys. It's been a while . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I could work with that track if it was later in the season.. I'd prob loose a lot to LM now. If nothing else it sure feels good to be back on the field of weenies for a few preseason tracks together before winter. You might not lose a lot to the lake in this setup imo. There is plenty of cold air ready to flood in. Probably should wait to see if the low actually takes a favorable track though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 You might not lose a lot to the lake in this setup imo. There is plenty of cold air ready to flood in. Probably should wait to see if the low actually takes a favorable track though. I agree with everything. I'm just tickled we have our first possible winter threat to track in the MW/GL and signs are coming together it could be a potent bugger somewhere. No bad attitude during this track from me because this is still not really a favorable time for a big one here. Week or 10 days later I could see this system giving me fits from run to run just like its going to do to the models. Cya guys in 5 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Jesus. Got home from work and checked the boards and found 12+ new pages on this storm since this morning. Definitely didn't expect that! The 18z GFS is definitely trending in the right direction. Even last night's run had a better look to it than previous runs. Good to see all of the models hinting at something big. That's a good sign. Usually when they latch on to something a week out like this something big ends up happening somewhere. Definitely makes sense with such a powerful arctic surge on the way. That's the benefit we get after having such a warm Fall. It allowed the cold to just build in the arctic. It's all gonna come down to the timing of the arctic intrusion. As a few others stated, definitely a good chance of freezing rain setting up somewhere with this. These early season arctic pushes are notoriously shallow on the front end, and we all know what that means. Gonna be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is fairly boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well.. they show SOMETHING... 18z GFS Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sweet I want this storm to hit southern wisconsin so bad. What do you guys think as of now that the storm will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sweet I want this storm to hit southern wisconsin so bad. What do you guys think as of now that the storm will? at this point i'd rather be northwest of the model consensus than southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 at this point i'd rather be northwest of the model consensus than southeast It's too early to concede this storm for those of us to the SE, but for the most part think you're right. Transitional events rarely work out here. I think we've got a better chance once the cold air becomes entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 It's too early to concede this storm for those of us to the SE, but for the most part think you're right. Transitional events rarely work out here. I think we've got a better chance once the cold air becomes entrenched. Normally I would agree with this, but this what system 3 in the train of storms, I think the SE of model guidance right now are very much in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Sweet, looks like something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Sweet, looks like something to follow. Well if the SE track doesn't verify we can all BLAME STEBO for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 EURO looks incredibly cold for us Nebraskan folks later next week. GFS finally starting to develop the storm system, but still weak. Its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well if the SE track doesn't verify we can all BLAME STEBO for that. Eh if it happens on thanksgiving then ill slam dunk a snowstorm prediction a month in advance and you know i called that severe outbreak for this fall back in summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Eh if it happens on thanksgiving then ill slam dunk a snowstorm prediction a month in advance and you know i called that severe outbreak for this fall back in summer. Yeah you have been on track this year....will give you props for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well if the SE track doesn't verify we can all BLAME STEBO for that. Though it's sorta refreshing to see someone not buy into "its gotta go NW". Plus I can see his reasoning too. Lots of time though for changes...lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Though it's sorta refreshing to see someone not buy into "its gotta go NW". Plus I can see his reasoning too. Lots of time though for changes...lots of time. Yup....we won't have a decent idea until 00Z Tuesday when the mid level vort and the upper jet start to enter the RAOB network in the NW....then it wwill be interesting to see how under-done the models are on 500 heights and 250 winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yup....we won't have a decent idea until 00Z Tuesday when the mid level vort and the upper jet start to enter the RAOB network in the NW....then it wwill be interesting to see how under-done the models are on 500 heights and 250 winds. We could almost start a thread on that as an over/under....My guess would be under-done by 20 meters (thought about saying 40) and 40 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Though it's sorta refreshing to see someone not buy into "its gotta go NW". Plus I can see his reasoning too. Lots of time though for changes...lots of time. True, but for some reason it already feels like we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I think I have a good shot with this one but it is just too early. I have to get through the first 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 True, but for some reason it already feels like we're done. Shhh no need for negativeness even if you live in the LAF screwzone. Have positive thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 True, but for some reason it already feels like we're done. Eh, we probably are. But it's still early enough in the season that it won't bother me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Yup....we won't have a decent idea until 00Z Tuesday when the mid level vort and the upper jet start to enter the RAOB network in the NW....then it wwill be interesting to see how under-done the models are on 500 heights and 250 winds. Actually: There are upper air stations across Canada. They are more sparse, but still much better than nothing. The piece of energy that is progged to become the T-day storm is currently bottled up in the current PV parked near the north pole. That should start being sampled by the NOAM network within the next 24-48 hours. We may have a better idea sooner than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Actually: There are upper air stations across Canada. They are more sparse, but still much better than nothing. The piece of energy that is progged to become the T-day storm is currently bottled up in the current PV parked near the north pole. That should start being sampled by the NOAM network within the next 24-48 hours. We may have a better idea sooner than normal. Yeah I think he means the better RAOB network of the NW US, sometimes the stuff in Canada misses the RAOBs, and thus this is where satellite imagery comes in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Normally I would agree with this, but this what system 3 in the train of storms, I think the SE of model guidance right now are very much in the game. Trying to jinx it now, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.