snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Wow, dewpoint of 14 right now. Too bad the first round of precip with this storm is progged to dissipate, otherwise it'd be a sig. wintry mess tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Landed in Chicago and driving in the rain toward Indiana now. One of the most turbulent flights I've ever been on. Crossing the long line of storms was more than bumpy. Looks like areas of moderate rain between here any Indy. At least it'll be liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 That's some impressive cold air advection on the GFS. Most notably Detroit's & Toledo's 850mb temps goes from 2-3C to -10C within 3 hours. NAM isn't too far off either with a drop from 5C to -5C within 3 hours. Normally in these types of setups dynamic cooling plays a huge factor (simply because of the strong upward forcing), so it's definitely will be fun to nowcast this tomorrow evening. It also shows better 700mb omega, so I'm questioning whether or not the models are underdoing the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Landed in Chicago and driving in the rain toward Indiana now. One of the most turbulent flights I've ever been on. Crossing the long line of storms was more than bumpy. Looks like areas of moderate rain between here any Indy. At least it'll be liquid. at the bumpy flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Which side of IKK--The family roots are in Ford/KKK county---(Cabery) Kankakee itself. I've been to Cabery...not much to see there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 at the bumpy flight. I absolutely love turbulence, feels like you're in an action movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I absolutely love turbulence, feels like you're in an action movie. You sir are crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Landed in Chicago and driving in the rain toward Indiana now. One of the most turbulent flights I've ever been on. Crossing the long line of storms was more than bumpy. Looks like areas of moderate rain between here any Indy. At least it'll be liquid. Dense fog here with 50/48. Bloomington is probably worse with 38/37. Temperature and DP's rising rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Looks like LAF getting the goods right now...0.93" and counting tonight. Take that drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Looks like LAF getting the goods right now...0.93" and counting tonight. Take that drought! wow that's quite a dent after the dent on monday/yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 wow that's quite a dent after the dent on monday/yesterday. Approaching 2.00" total since Monday. Another inch or so, which might be possible, and we'll be pretty much at average YTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The RGEM gives me almost 7 hours of winter tomorrow, mostly sleet and snow. It seems the wave that rides up matches with the cold air with it's peak right here..the GFS is a bit SE and the NAM is pretty close as well. the mets apparently think the models/warm grounds are over doing this. I dunno the cold has already entered western MO and is still making good headway. It would seem to be cold enough here for winter by 7-8am. Anyone have any thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I absolutely love turbulence, feels like you're in an action movie. Last i checked, a lot of those action movies end with a plane crash. You sir are crazy No kidding. All i wanted to do was sleep. Dense fog here with 50/48. Bloomington is probably worse with 38/37. Temperature and DP's rising rapidly. Ind is saying low 50s by 5am. Should be quite a warmup... Car thermometer is reading 37F here in Hammond. I'll be watching it rise all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The RGEM gives me almost 7 hours of winter tomorrow, mostly sleet and snow. It seems the wave that rides up matches with the cold air with it's peak right here..the GFS is a bit SE and the NAM is pretty close as well. the mets apparently think the models/warm grounds are over doing this. I dunno the cold has already entered western MO and is still making good headway. It would seem to be cold enough here for winter by 7-8am. Anyone have any thoughts. I'm sorry but the warm ground excuse is sorta lame IMO. I think it's got to do more so with intensity of the snowfall...even if it's 70º for three days and on the fourth you get 1/2mi - 1/4mi or lower vis snow (with conducive temps)...it's going to stick. Not saying this is the case with this possible event BTW...just ranting a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm sorry but the warm ground excuse is sorta lame IMO. I think it's got to do more so with intensity of the snowfall...even if it's 70º for three days and on the fourth you get 1/2mi - 1/4mi or lower vis snow (with conducive temps)...it's going to stick. In this case, the intial problem will be the preceeding rain (that must freeze/evaporate first). You'll have to waste at least 30 mintues of perfectly good snow to do that. You're right about the snowfall rate, that's most important in a snow event (IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 In this case, the intial problem will be the preceeding rain (that must freeze/evaporate first). You'll have to waste at least 30 mintues of perfectly good snow to do that. You're right about the snowfall rate, that's most important in a snow event (IMO). Yep, I'll give you the wet ground thing...unless the cold coming through is flash freeze worthy. This looks not to be the case this time. Anyways, good luck with the potential snow Friv. I've been of no help to your original question...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yep, I'll give you the wet ground thing...unless the cold coming through is flash freeze worthy. This looks not to be the case this time. Anyways, good luck with the potential snow Friv. I've been of no help to your original question...sorry. While a flash freeze is unlikely, the potential is certainly there for a brief period of 1"+ hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm sorry but the warm ground excuse is sorta lame IMO. I think it's got to do more so with intensity of the snowfall...even if it's 70º for three days and on the fourth you get 1/2mi - 1/4mi or lower vis snow (with conducive temps)...it's going to stick. Not saying this is the case with this possible event BTW...just ranting a little. April of 05 is all I have to say to warm grounds. Anyone from Michigan knows the storm that came at the end of that month, and it was preceded by a week of 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 April of 05 is all I have to say to warm grounds. Anyone from Michigan knows the storm that came at the end of that month, and it was preceded by a week of 70s I remember the snowfall rates being rather variable outside of the thumb and higher elevations. Those areas did quite well. It was more of a long duration light to moderate QPF event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Thanks. Toledo - both airports report -RA or nothing in the past few hours-- good visibility. 0.03" I have to admit, a few days ago I showed the weather weenie side of me. I posted the ECMWF forecast with a low near Columbus, and I said "blizzard for Toledo on Thanksgiving." As it turns out, a few sleet pellets fell on me, tonight. It should be above freezing for most or all of our precipitation tomorrow. Yeah... other than a limited backside snow event with the front just a bunch of ordinary rain. If we don't manage any snow Thursday night we may have the third time in KTOL's history that no snow fell in November... but I think we squeeze out a trace or maybe a couple tenths of an inch by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Here is the 00z GFS BUFR map. Shows Detroit getting .4 of Snowfall, on a 10to 1 ratio that would be 4 inches of snowfall, but if the cold advection moves in quicker and temps drop dramatically the snow fluff factor and ratio could go up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Here is the 00z GFS BUFR map. Shows Detroit getting .4 of Snowfall, on a 10to 1 ratio that would be 4 inches of snowfall, but if the cold advection moves in quicker and temps drop dramatically the snow fluff factor and ratio could go up.. You're setting yourself up for massive disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 You're setting yourself up for massive disappointment. Let me tell you this, I have seen this happen before, but I'm not going to disappoint myself, there is a possibility this could occur so heck Ill take it lol.. Fun to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Let me tell you this, I have seen this happen before, but I'm not going to disappoint myself, there is a possibility this could occur so heck Ill take it lol.. Fun to watch.. If the front actually stalled, I could see something to watch. But from all the guidance I've seen, the front (and the precip associated with it) remains progressive. Even though the CAA behind the FROPA is impressive, this setup is just not conducive for appreciable accumulating snow. Freaky things happen with the weather, that's why we all love it, but frankly, if you get a 15 minute burst and a light coating on the grass tomorrow night, consider yourself fortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 If the front actually stalled, I could see something to watch. But from all the guidance I've seen, the front (and the precip associated with it) remains progressive. Even though the CAA behind the FROPA is impressive, this setup is just not conducive for appreciable accumulating snow. Freaky things happen with the weather, that's why we all love it, but frankly, if you get a 15 minute burst and a light coating on the grass tomorrow night, consider yourself fortunate. As I said, I'll take it!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 As I said, I'll take it!!! LOL Ok, good. I'm guilty of it too sometimes, but if we start getting greedy in November, it's going to be a long, long winter (and I mean this in a bad way). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 BTW, I still got sleet here, Sterling Heights,,Mi,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Ok, good. I'm guilty of it too sometimes, but if we start getting greedy in November, it's going to be a long, long winter (and I mean this in a bad way). Believe I was thought in College not to be greedy nor depress myself because a storm misses us or something in that form, (which I used to do) lol.. You have to change your attitude towards weather, it wont change just because you want it to. SO I just like to say, TAKE IT AND LIKE IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Got about 2 inches of snow here in Mankato...Roads are a pure glaze..Kinda neat. Bumps up the season total to 12.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Moderate sleet atm here.. coming down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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