Midwest Thanksgiving Storm...

[A-L-E-K]

Wish I brought my camera because the visual here is pretty cool. Visability to the north and east is pretty high, but to the west things are good until about 2-3 miles out when it turns all white. I have to imagine the near west suburbs are seeing snow right now.

EDIT: some type of snow/zr/pl mix in progress. First frozen action of the year for me.

[Chicago Storm]

34/24 here, but all of the precip has stayed south of the area thus far.

[Hoosier]

Wish I brought my camera because the visual here is pretty cool. Visability to the north and east is pretty high, but to the west things are good until about 2-3 miles out when it turns all white. I have to imagine the near west suburbs are seeing snow right now.

EDIT: some type of snow/zr/pl mix in progress. First frozen action of the year for me.

Tomorrow is looking a bit interesting. Not a major thing but my confidence is growing in a changeover with 1-2" possible. The area I'm most interested in is around the I-55 corridor during the afternoon and then progressing east. Should be a narrow transition zone of shallower cold with zr/ip before it goes to snow.

[KeenerWx]

All rain here....

[beavis1729]

It wasn't so much a climo comment as what i expect this year.

It seemed like a lot of the winter projections had the action heating up around here after December and I don't see any real threats on the immediate horizon which brings us into early December. We are starting to see decent snow pack in the north country, which can't hurt. Right now, I think I'll see my first sticking snow by mid December, just a guess. I didn't see much of anything besides slush until January last year as well.

Got it...yeah, that's the way it looks.

[A-L-E-K]

Tomorrow is looking a bit interesting. Not a major thing but my confidence is growing in a changeover with 1-2" possible. The area I'm most interested in is around the I-55 corridor during the afternoon and then progressing east. Should be a narrow transition zone of shallower cold with zr/ip before it goes to snow.

Bold call, seems like the precip almost always outruns the cold air in these scenarios. A quick look at the hi res NMM does bring some flakes in but it won't be 1-2". ARW similar but south.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Below freezing temps from about 3-4K feet to the surface are foretasted to fly under the precip shield., this is what Springfield, MO had to say about it.

WHAT IS OF GREATER CONCERN IS WHAT HAPPENS DURING THE DAY ON

THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE CROSSED INTO

ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE

WILL HAVE YET TO CLEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP

WILL FAVOR INCREASING LIFT DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF A

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CORE AND APPROACHING TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN

POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH AT OR BELOW FREEZING

AREA WIDE...FROZEN PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY.

THE TWO BIGGEST QUESTIONS ARE THE DEPTH OF THE SUB FREEZING

LAYER...AND WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION

WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. AS FOR THE

SUBFREEZING LAYER...HAVE GONE THE SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER ROUTE FOR NOW

WHICH WOULD FAVOR FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SLEET NEAR THE BACK

EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IF WE CAN GET SOME MORE DEPTH...SLEET

AND/OR SNOW WOULD BE MORE FAVORED. 00 AND 12Z UPSTREAM RAOBS WILL

BE A VERY VALUABLE COMMODITY IN ASSESSING THIS INCOMING AIRMASS

AS MODEL RESOLUTION TYPICALLY RESULTS IN POOR HANDLING OF ARCTIC

AIRMASSES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...HAVE INCREASED ICE

ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE THERE IS A

BETTER SHOT AT POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY WENT WITH

TRACE AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE PLATEAU...RANGING TO GREATER THAN A

TENTH OF AN INCH FROM BRANSON TO WEST PLAINS TO SALEM. WITH

GROUND TEMPERATURES SO WARM...ICE ACCUMULATION WOULD MAINLY BE

CONFINED TO ELEVATED OBJECTS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR SOUTH CENTRAL

Already the 12z models are busting to warm in the plains with the cold air advancement and general cold temps. in some places over 10F. I have noticed not only have models trended faster with the cold.

And are still busting to warm. They have trended deeper on the soundings with the freeze level. A couple days ago the soundings would show 2K-2500K feet of freeze level. Today the GFS and NAM in KSTL and KBLV

(East of STL, in IL) both had a freeze layer of nearly 4K feet right when the last 3-4 hours of moderate precip started. This would surely be all sleet ending as snow. The GFS has really picked up the pace

of the arrival of the low level cold air. Given how dense and just plain cold this air mass is, and how it it has been refrigerated over the same place with snow cover now. I think we are going to see a much

steeper and quick temp drop with this, then models predict. Some o them have barely falling below freezing as the cold filters in at the surface, no way, not when its brutal out in the plains.

We will see.

[csnavywx]

18-00z 25NOV precip

[jhamps10]

I just talked with my sister in Humboldt, about 10 miles north of Mattoon, and she had a light glaze on the front deck, but it had changed to all rain now.

[B-Rent]

<br />I think we're getting some light glazing. Per the local met blog there is minor glazing on elevated objects across the area.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Just enough to make the deck shiny here, outside of MIE. All liquid otherwise.

Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk

[daddylonglegs]

Some sort of ice pellet type precip here... Not snow... warm too...36F ...

[daddylonglegs]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

1136 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010

.UPDATE...

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WERE WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 32F ACROSS

MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...ADDING TO

COMPLEXITY OF PRECIP TYPE FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BAND OF

SHRA/EVEN A FEW TSRA...WITH A BIT OF MU-CAPE OVER CENTRAL IA...

WERE SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS

MORNING. THESE PRODUCING A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES...AND SOME ICING...

EVEN WITH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE 32F. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF

ISOLATED TSRA TO ABOUT SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE

AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE STRONGER LIFT AND THE WEAK ELEVATED

INSTABILITY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED FCST GRIDS FOR

SOME WARMER TEMPS AND MORE MIXED PRECIP TYPES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT

WILL LET HEADLINES RIDE AS IS FOR NOW AS IT ONLY TAKES A BRIEF

PERIOD OF ICING TO CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD. GREATER THREAT OF MORE

WIDESPREAD ICING AND SOME SNOW LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF A

ST. ANSGAR IA TO WINONA MN AND NEILLSVILLE WI LINE...WITH ANY

ICING MORE SCATTERED SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

[Hoosier]

Bold call, seems like the precip almost always outruns the cold air in these scenarios. A quick look at the hi res NMM does bring some flakes in but it won't be 1-2". ARW similar but south.

Yeah I know...I even said the same thing yesterday or the day before. Most models are indicating a changeover to some extent. The WRF-NMM has an omega bullseye over northeast IL around the time it will be changing over.

The window of opportunity is probably going to be pretty narrow, but I think it could be long enough to allow for some minor accumulations. These setups are always tricky though so I wouldn't be surprised either way...

[Chicago Storm]

34/24 here, but all of the precip has stayed south of the area thus far.

34/26 with rain now.

I was just outside and noticed some icicles hanging off the pool deck.

[Natester]

Had a thunderstorm with freezing rain come through here about 20 minutes ago. Put a thin layer of ice on everything although it's going to melt later when the temps warm above freezing.

[buckeye]

Damn, that's some heavy rain coming in from cincy.... i wonder if there's some sleet in there...seems odd to have that kind of strong returns imbedded in a precip shield like that.

[Chicago WX]

light freezing rain at LAF now although it's reporting a temp just above freezing. Not sure if Chicago WX is around to provide some obs.

KLAF 241714Z 12011G20KT 7SM -FZRA BKN044 BKN060 01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 RAE08FZRAB08 P0001

Started as sleet here...lasted about 20 minutes or so, enough to put down a thin layer on the ground. I was just out for a late lunch, and it's just light rain..."safely" above freezing. Talked to my parents in IKK and my mom said they had some icicles hanging from the lines there...nothing major but it sounds like surfaces above the ground are freezing up there.

[BowMeHunter]

Popped the snow cherry.. To bad its only a sliver of moisture out there.

[oldlogin]

Damn, that's some heavy rain coming in from cincy.... i wonder if there's some sleet in there...seems odd to have that kind of strong returns imbedded in a precip shield like that.

There was steady IP about 20 minutes ago. Covered the deck , but melted fast---All rain now

[ams30721us]

Damn, that's some heavy rain coming in from cincy.... i wonder if there's some sleet in there...seems odd to have that kind of strong returns imbedded in a precip shield like that.

Yea I am at UC.... most of that area is moderate sleet.

[csnavywx]

Damn, that's some heavy rain coming in from cincy.... i wonder if there's some sleet in there...seems odd to have that kind of strong returns imbedded in a precip shield like that.

It's just bright banding due to melting aloft. There's a few reports of freezing rain and pellets around there.

[ArmyGreens]

Up here north of Columbus it is all sleet at 32 F.

[turtlehurricane]

Starting to sleet in Madison per obs. 36F at the surface though, so not much is gonna accumulate. Rain is still mixing in too.

A similar thing happened last year on Thanksgiving, the first real wintry event of the year with a half inch of snow, but it too melted quickly. Storms like this will be a joke a month from now.

[AppsRunner]

Still waiting on precip to arrive here... 36.1 now... temperature has dropped 2 degrees in the last couple hours. Local radar has basically all the precip in NWOH as frozen precip.

[Indystorm]

Precip started here at Elkhart at 3:15 EST as some ice pellets but has switched over to light rain at present. 33 degrees

[Chicago Storm]

34/26 with rain now.

I was just outside and noticed some icicles hanging off the pool deck.

The rain that came down is now freezing to some of the colder surfaces like the grill, deck and so on.

Currently 34/30.

[daddylonglegs]

Rain is done here.. Nice storm... not

[ArmyGreens]

Temperature dropped another degree...now 31/29! Even after their evening forecast adjustment they were to high...interesting.

[stud]

How was that snow in MN?

*giggles like a school girl*

[michsnowfreak]

Boy, you really enjoy downplaying things...if we actually do have to wait 20-30 days, that would be a disaster. Winter is DJF...and climatologically, real snow threats in northern IL are possible from Nov 15 - Mar 31. You make it seem like no snow until mid-Dec. is par for the course.

Just busting your chops a bit...but it seems like your climo expectations are overly muted.

If anything Id say Nov 15 - Apr 15.