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Midwest Thanksgiving Storm...

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Central/Western States

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

The RGEM is certainly hinting at some precip type problems at onset down into central IL. Interestingly, the precip trends toward rain as it gets into Indiana on the model, perhaps partially due to diurnal influences/less favorable time of onset?

I_nw_r1_EST_2010112400_017.png

Can you give me the link to that site? I was looking myself at the CMC and it rushes in the cold air a lot quicker then the other models.. Will be interesting to watch this unfold.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Anyone else concerned about these temps right now? Our forecasted low here in FDL was 22. Right now it's 15.6 degrees here.

They updated the low forecast about 2-3 hours ago, and it said 16. And it's below that as well. The grids also say it will be 20 degrees at 2 AM. Well, it's 15.6 here at 1:36

Thoughts?

Conditions are pretty good for radiational cooling. I think the real test is to see how temps respond after sunrise.

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hoosierwx

hoosierwx

Posted
Posted

fill_94qwbg.gif

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

105 AM EST WED NOV 24 2010

...VALID 06Z WED NOV 24 2010 - 12Z THU NOV 25 2010...

...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

PRG OSU CVG POF UNO PRG.

...LWR OH VLY...

MDLS ARE IN STG AGREEMENT ON A SYNOPTIC HVY RNFL EVENT DVLPG LATER

TDA/TNGT ACRS THE REGION THAT SHLD LINGER INTO DAY 2. UPR VORTEX

OVR THE NRN ROCKIES WL SHIFT EWD WITH STG HGT FALLS PUSHG INTO THE

PLNS AND SVRL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS FCST TO LIFT RPDLY NEWD FM THE SRN

PLNS TO THE OH VLY STS AND PROVIDE A PROLONGED PD OF STG LIFT. SFC

FNT WL QUICKLY MOV ACRS THE PLNS TDA AND THEN BEGIN TO STALL FM

THE GRT LKS TO THE LWR OH VLY AND WRN TX WITH NEARLY PARALLEL

SWRLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WL PROMOTE TRAING ACRS THE REGION. MDLS ARE

SHOWG A RATHER IMPRVS RIBBON OF 8H THETA-E RIDGING INTO/ACRS THE

REGION WITH VRY STG 8H FLOW. MDL 8H WNDS OF 50-60 KTS WL SUPPORT

ANOMALOUS 8H MSTR FLUX ALNG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADV. SREF

8H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES ARE 3-4 STDS ABV NRML. LATEST SATL DERIVED

PW DATA SHOWS A TONGUE OF PWS 1.00-1.50 INCHES LIFTG NWD INTO ERN

TX THIS MRNG...WITH MDL FCSTS SHOWG THIS MSTR CONTG TO LIFT NEWD

THRU THE PD THAT WL EASILY FUEL A SWATH OF HVY RNFL ACRS THE

REGION. PW ANOMALIES ARE GNRLY ARND TWO STDS ABV NRML. HI-RES

ARW/NMM GUID IS SHOWG A SWATH OF 2-4 INCH RNFL ACRS THE

REGION...WITH EXPERIMENTAL DENSITY PLOTS OF RNFL EXCEEDING FFG

SHOWG LWR INDICES ACRS THE REGION. THIS MAINLY DUE TO THE RATHER

HI FFG AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS COULD CHNG QUICKLY LATER TNGT AS

HVY RNFL DVLPS. XPCT THE FIRST SHOT OF LGT/MOD RNFL ERLY TDA WITH

THE ONSET OF STGR WAA...THEN THE HVIER RNFL AMTS WL BEGIN TNGT

ACRS THE REGION WITH CELLS TRAING TWD THE NE FOR SVRL HRS. THIS

SHLD RESULT IN SOME ONE INCH PER HR RNFL RATES AND TOTALS OF 2-4

INCHES THRU THU MRNG.

ECKERT

Drought buster?

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

HPC:

A POWERFUL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DOMINATE

THE WEATHER AS ANOMALOUS COLD AND SNOWY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER

MUCH OF THE REGION. AS A VIGOROUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES

THROUGH THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES...STRONG WINDS HOWLING FROM

THE NORTHWEST WILL BLOW AROUND ANY OF THE SNOW THAT HAD FALLEN

EARLIER RESULTING IN POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TO MAKE MATTERS

MORE PROBLEMATIC...FRIGID AIR WILL INHABIT THE REGION WITH

WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. AS

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL

BE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN BY

THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL EFFECTS WILL

BE LASTING AS THIS SHOULD LIKELY CREATE HEADACHES FOR THOSE

TRAVELING DURING THIS THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

AS THIS STRONG DISTURBANCE TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST...PRECIPITATION

WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BETTER

FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL

BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST LIFT FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED. FLOODING

IS A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE

PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW A BIT WHICH WILL HELP

CONCENTRATE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THIS PORTION OF THE

U.S. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...A WINTRY MIXTURE

OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL SPAN FROM THE NORTHERN

HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND INTO THE

NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOCALIZED HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE

EXPECTED WITHIN A COMMA-HEAD OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED NEAR THE

FRONTAL OCCLUSION. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A SIGNIFICANT

FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY USHER IN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR

MASS. LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTER OF THE NATION WHICH WILL BE IN THE

50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY MAY BARELY SEE READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ON

THANKSGIVING DAY. ALL OF THIS WILD WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY REACH

THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY FRIDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE

HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Sometimes I get a kick out of the news. Scene from one of Indy's morning news channels (I'm paraphrasing):

-Opening at the top of the hour...scene of snow-packed roads from somewhere with a headline..."Headed our way?".

-Go to weather: TV met says there is some mixed precipitation out west in central and southern IL, but most of the precip entering Indiana is just rain. There's a chance of sleet, but it shouldn't be a big deal.

-Cut to reporter at the airport: Dangerous roads out west, Indy's snow plows are on standby for a winter storm to potentially hit central IN today.

Geez...TV met playing it well, who I think is a pretty decent met BTW, while the reporter is in "hype mode"...or at least giving out that impression. arrowheadsmiley.png

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Sometimes I get a kick out of the news. Scene from one of Indy's morning news channels (I'm paraphrasing):

-Opening at the top of the hour...scene of snow-packed roads from somewhere with a headline..."Headed our way?".

-Go to weather: TV met says there is some mixed precipitation out west in central and southern IL, but most of the precip entering Indiana is just rain. There's a chance of sleet, but it shouldn't be a big deal.

-Cut to reporter at the airport: Dangerous roads out west, Indy's snow plows are on standby for a winter storm to potentially hit central IN today.

Geez...TV met playing it well, who I think is a pretty decent met BTW, while the reporter is in "hype mode"...or at least giving out that impression. arrowheadsmiley.png

LMAO!!! Now that is what a call a PKG. That's to funny.

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janetjanet998

janetjanet998

Posted
Posted

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

931 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010

..FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-053>057-241900-

/O.NEW.KILX.ZR.Y.0002.101124T1531Z-101124T1900Z/

KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-MASON-

LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-

COLES-EDGAR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...

NORMAL...HAVANA...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE...

DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON

931 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS

AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A FREEZING

RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL

ILLINOIS THROUGH MIDDAY. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB...THE

PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted

This looks like a few backside flakes, but these post front change overs rarely work out. Either way, we're getting closer and real threats should start showing up in 20-30 days. :snowman:

Boy, you really enjoy downplaying things...if we actually do have to wait 20-30 days, that would be a disaster. Winter is DJF...and climatologically, real snow threats in northern IL are possible from Nov 15 - Mar 31. You make it seem like no snow until mid-Dec. is par for the course. :lightning:

Just busting your chops a bit...but it seems like your climo expectations are overly muted.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

Boy, you really enjoy downplaying things...if we actually do have to wait 20-30 days, that would be a disaster. Winter is DJF...and climatologically, real snow threats in northern IL are possible from Nov 15 - Mar 31. You make it seem like no snow until mid-Dec. is par for the course. :lightning:

Just busting your chops a bit...but it seems like your climo expectations are overly muted.

It wasn't so much a climo comment as what i expect this year.

It seemed like a lot of the winter projections had the action heating up around here after December and I don't see any real threats on the immediate horizon which brings us into early December. We are starting to see decent snow pack in the north country, which can't hurt. Right now, I think I'll see my first sticking snow by mid December, just a guess. I didn't see much of anything besides slush until January last year as well.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

1014 AM EST WED NOV 24 2010

UPDATE

VIGOROUS MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HEIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING POTENT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MO INTO IL. AREAS OF IP/SN/AND ZR ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED...AND GIVEN ILX/ILN 12Z RAOBS WITH A MASSIVE DRY INTRUSION PER DEPARTING SFC RIDGE...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PRECIP SHIELD AS IT PUSHES NE AND WET BULB COOLING CONTINUES. HAVE ADDED MIXED PRECIP WORDING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH ROBUST LL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OFFSET ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR NE AREAS TO EXPERIENCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IP OR SN WITH SOME ACCUMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE ALL RAIN IS FAVORED. NAM 1000-600 MB MAX T DOES HINT AT THIS SCENARIO GIVEN SUSTAINED DRY EASTERLY LL FLOW. HAVE ADJUSTED WX GRIDS TO A NAM/LOCAL WRF BLEND WHICH ENCOMPASSES BOTH PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING CONCERNS. DID LOWER MAX T/S A COUPLE DEGREES GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE. ALL ELSE IS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted 
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  
1123 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010     

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON     
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.                
..REMARKS..    

1122 AM     FREEZING RAIN    OTTAWA                  41.35N 88.84W   
11/24/2010  E0.00 INCH       LA SALLE           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT                 

ROADS ARE ICY IN LASALLE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVERPASSES. NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS ON I-39.

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