BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NAM Storm Vista maps Give LAF 0" Mulberry Indiana 2-4" Josh 4-8" Western TN up through Beau, Louisville, southern half of Indiana and through N. Ohio 8-18" lol those maps on SV are a joke tho. Be sweet if it happened tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NAM Storm Vista maps Give LAF 0" Mulberry Indiana 2-4" Josh 4-8" Western TN up through Beau, Louisville southern half of Indiana and through N. Ohio 8-18" lol those maps on SV are a joke tho. Be sweet if it happened tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NAM Storm Vista maps Give LAF 0" Mulberry Indiana 2-4" Josh 4-8" Western TN up through Beau, Louisville, southern half of Indiana and through N. Ohio 8-18" lol those maps on SV are a joke tho. Be sweet if it happened tho! lol WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Those maps are always WAY overdone on SV and I never look at them but sense snow maps were being posted I'd thought I'd look for ****s and giggles.. It really did give LAF nothing but a stones throw away was the 2-4" band. Nothing for Toronto either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NAM Storm Vista maps Give LAF 0" Mulberry Indiana 2-4" Josh 4-8" Western TN up through Beau, Louisville, southern half of Indiana and through N. Ohio 8-18" lol those maps on SV are a joke tho. Be sweet if it happened tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Those maps are always WAY overdone on SV and I never look at them but sense snow maps were being posted I'd thought I'd look for ****s and giggles.. It really did give LAF nothing but a stones throw away was the 2-4" band. Nothing for Toronto either Bah, I wasn't expecting much. Maybe I can get a little ZR early on Thursday, but that's it. Dec 5 is my threshold date. If by Dec 5 that pattern is still crappy with no signs of improvement, at that point I'll start to get worried. Real worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z NAM with a pretty brief changeover here at the end. But the beginning looks kind of interesting. Surface temps are just a shade over freezing with dewpoints below 32º...of course WAA is rushing in at 900 so if there is any chance of non-rain at the start, it looks like it could be a short shot of pl before the deluge. After looking it over, I would not be surprised if we started as snow or a mix tomorrow. Wetbulbs are below freezing basically through the entire column at 18z and precip comes around then on average (NAM a tad slower, GFS a tad faster). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'll probably check this out in BUFKIT later, but for now, here is the 12z NAM forecast sounding valid 18z Wednesday. There is some low level warmth but notice the dry layer in the low levels which may be enough to support some wintry precip especially near the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'll probably check this out in BUFKIT later, but for now, here is the 12z NAM forecast sounding valid 18z Wednesday. There is some low level warmth but notice the dry layer in the low levels which may be enough to support some wintry precip especially near the onset. I agree it would likely web bulb down to maybe upper 20s.....somewhere in the 27-31 range which should give you some PL or FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 After looking it over, I would not be surprised if we started as snow or a mix tomorrow. Wetbulbs are below freezing basically through the entire column at 18z and precip comes around then on average (NAM a tad slower, GFS a tad faster). 18z NAM still putting out that vibe. No mention at all of the possibility in today's IND AFD though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z NAM still putting out that vibe. No mention at all of the possibility in today's IND AFD though. Well they did say this at least.. QUESTION ON THANKSGIVING NIGHT BECOMES DOES THE COLD AIR ARRIVE BEFORE OR AFTER PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF COMPLETELY. WITH AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...FAVORED A BLEND AND A RAIN OR SNOW FORECAST FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm kinda wondering if we will end this thing with a little sleet/snow/ZR mix. if we get sleet the roads will go crazy for a bit. Lincoln isn't thinking it's going to happen but the models are starting to show a different picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Well they did say this at least.. Yep saw that. ILX and LOT thinking a mix at the onset is possible in their areas, before the WAA crashes in at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This looks fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS is coming around to the idea of a mix before the precip shuts off for some areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS is coming around to the idea of a mix before the precip shuts off for some areas as well. Sure is. My drive back here from up north Thanksgiving night is getting more interesting with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS is coming around to the idea of a mix before the precip shuts off for some areas as well. 18z GFS really came in line with the 18z NAM. Now shows a very significant anafrontal signature. Am inclined to believe it given the sharp positive tilt trough and very sharp mT/cA boundary that will accompany it. While I'm never really excited about post-frontal events, this may turn out to be an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS really came in line with the 18z NAM. Now shows a very significant anafrontal signature. Am inclined to believe it given the sharp positive tilt trough and very sharp mT/cA boundary that will accompany it. While I'm never really excited about post-frontal events, this may turn out to be an exception. Excuse my ignorance but what does that exactly mean for us up here in NE IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS really came in line with the 18z NAM. Now shows a very significant anafrontal signature. Am inclined to believe it given the sharp positive tilt trough and very sharp mT/cA boundary that will accompany it. While I'm never really excited about post-frontal events, this may turn out to be an exception. Go check out the IWX afternoon discussion if you haven't. They mention that the NAM may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Remeber, a whole bunch of that QPF falls well before bl temps go AOB 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS through 60. (May not be snow, may be ice/freezing rain, didn't look at it too in depth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z NAM still putting out that vibe. No mention at all of the possibility in today's IND AFD though. Yeah I was a little surprised. Seems like the possibility is decent enough to mention even though we're not talking about a long duration thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Excuse my ignorance but what does that exactly mean for us up here in NE IL? Not a whole lot for you up that far north as of right now. It still could change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Remeber, a whole bunch of that QPF falls well before bl temps go AOB 32. Yeah, I realize that. Just eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Yeah I was a little surprised. Seems like the possibility is decent enough to mention even though we're not talking about a long duration thing. Must be taking a wait and see approach. But like you said, if anything happens at all, it should be pretty short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS through 60. (May not be snow, may be ice/freezing rain, didn't look at it too in depth) Kind of hope this happens so I have a good excuse to jet early from Aunt's T-day festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS through 60. (May not be snow, may be ice/freezing rain, didn't look at it too in depth) Someone's going to get some impressive snowfall rates if they do change over. Just looking at the temperature gradient you can tell the lift/instability will be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 18z GFS through 60. (May not be snow, may be ice/freezing rain, didn't look at it too in depth) Just enough wintery precip to make the roads go crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Must be taking a wait and see approach. But like you said, if anything happens at all, it should be pretty short-lived. I'm curious to see what our surface temps will actually be when precip gets here. We struggled to get out of the 30's during the day with a lot of sun so it makes you wonder. Low level trajectories will be E/SE and gradually becoming more southerly so it will only be a matter of time, but I could see a period of several hours where it's sort of borderline in the low/mid 30's. Gut feeling is that we will be just cold enough to start out with something wintry...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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