Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The ensembles are always cold biased. Would not put to much stock into them.. The GFS ensembles seemed to be in the past. Haven't really been following them lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Seriously storm number 4 on the gfs looks identical to this one.. This pattern is pretty boring, kind aof reminds me of the 2007/8 season when we started of slow and picked up at the end of December, and ended up above 70" of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The ensembles are always cold biased. Would not put to much stock into them.. You got that right. The cold isn't staying. It keeps warming back up. We get a couple of inches then melts. Suppose to get three inches and then it will warm up close to 40 tomorrow. If we would just get a good foot of snow on the ground it would help keep the temps down, but everything keeps moving west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Winter Storm Watch now for me. Heavy snow forecasted. Duluth is siding with the NAM over the Euro with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 nam finally speeds up, :axe::axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z NAM with a pretty brief changeover here at the end. But the beginning looks kind of interesting. Surface temps are just a shade over freezing with dewpoints below 32º...of course WAA is rushing in at 900 so if there is any chance of non-rain at the start, it looks like it could be a short shot of pl before the deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Chicago, how does the soundings look here on the 12z NAM? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Chicago, how does the soundings look here on the 12z NAM? Thanks. Surface temps are above freezing (34-36), but it looks favorable for some snow and mix for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Surface temps are above freezing (34-36), but it looks favorable for some snow and mix for you. Areas just northwest of there (RFD/DPA) are below freezing and remain there for a while (almost until the precip ends initially. Also some elevated cape in the warm layer. GFS wants to dump almost 1/4" of ice in there, but the NAM is probably a bit more realistic with a tenth or less. NAM also wants to build some precip back in on T-day, in the form of a mix to light snow. Not looking at a lot of QPF up this way, but could make it interesting for a while, especially if convection is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Csn. what does RFD and DPA? Like what cities are those? GFS is way warmer through 24 hours compared to the NAM. Edit: Hour 30 is colder compared to 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Csn. what does RFD and DPA? Like what cities are those? GFS is way warmer through 24 hours compared to the NAM. Edit: Hour 30 is colder compared to 6z GFS. RFD = Rockford DPA = Dupage Airport (West Chicago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 That's what I thought, but I live in South-Central Wisconsin, and you said NW of there which confused me for a sec. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Still some decent disagreement between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NAM showing nearly 7 inches of snow NW of GB and NW WI. About 1-3 in central and western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Areas just northwest of there (RFD/DPA) are below freezing and remain there for a while (almost until the precip ends initially. Also some elevated cape in the warm layer. GFS wants to dump almost 1/4" of ice in there, but the NAM is probably a bit more realistic with a tenth or less. NAM also wants to build some precip back in on T-day, in the form of a mix to light snow. Not looking at a lot of QPF up this way, but could make it interesting for a while, especially if convection is involved. Ya temps between 700mb and 850mb crash between 21z and 0z. soundings for near ARR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Now we're resorting to the POS NAM I guess the storm is getting in its time frame where its ok to look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 12z GGEM is "interesting". At 0z Friday it has the two low idea like the other models, but one 1003 low around MQT and another 1004 around MIE (via the B & W charts). Probably implies a little changeover on the far western edge in IL and MO. Of course I've given up seeing any wintry precip here and am more focused on getting a good deluge of rainfall. EDIT: Oh to the 72 hour panel. 995 in the YYZ neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Shift that about 200 miles NW and I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Last image from me, I swear. Here's the 12z GFS ensembles at 0z Friday. The red circled members are the ones that look like they could (or are the best chance to) produce some wintry precip on the backside. For reference, the OP GFS is in the top left hand corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Last image from me, I swear. Here's the 12z GFS ensembles at 0z Friday. The red circled members are the ones that look like they could (or are the best chance to) produce some wintry precip on the backside. For reference, the OP GFS is in the top left hand corner. Those GEFS will break your heart every time. But seriously, considering how tight the temp gradient is on the backside of that FROPA I think a brief burst of SN is possible. Don't think it'd add up to much. What we need to get something a little more significant is for some kind of tertiary wave to develop along the boundary which would force the precip to go anafrontal. GGEM kind of shows that but even it's too warm for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Considering I haven't got a flake of snow here yet, I'll take a snow shower to end this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Those GEFS will break your heart every time. But seriously, considering how tight the temp gradient is on the backside of that FROPA I think a brief burst of SN is possible. Don't think it'd add up to much. What we need to get something a little more significant is for some kind of tertiary wave to develop along the boundary which would force the precip to go anafrontal. GGEM kind of shows that but even it's too warm for the most part. True, but I find it interesting when the majority are a little slower/NW of the OP GFS. Still, my enthusiasm for seeing any "measurable" snowfall here with this is next to nil. Although a few flakes at the end would be nice...of course that seems to rarely work out. We'll see. Bottom line is another good rain event looks to be on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Maybe the EURO will get on board I don't think it's out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Earl Barker snowfall map time. Congrats to Indy, Dayton, etc.. 12z NAM: http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Earl Barker snowfall map time. Congrats to Indy, Dayton, etc.. 12z NAM: http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'll take it. Me too. I'm selling hope this afternoon...somewhat blind hope...but enough grinch by me, for a little while anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Me too. I'm selling hope this afternoon...somewhat blind hope...but enough grinch by me, for a little while anyway. This is one of those scenarios where I don't take individual runs verbatim...between the NAM, GFS ensembles, GGEM etc. there is a decent amount of evidence that there could be a changeover at the end. Whether it's going to be more than flakes in the air or actually a burst of snow that has some sticking potential remains to be seen. A lot of times these scenarios don't work out well, but not always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 This is one of those scenarios where I don't take individual runs verbatim...between the NAM, GFS ensembles, GGEM etc. there is a decent amount of evidence that there could be a changeover at the end. Whether it's going to be more than flakes in the air or actually a burst of snow that has some sticking potential remains to be seen. A lot of times these scenarios don't work out well, but not always... Agreed. Just fun to look at all of the individual models/possibilities right now. But if I were a betting man, I'd lean towards a few flakes at the end, but nothing of "significance" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 GFS showing just a little white action.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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