Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 12z GGEM seems to be siding more with the GFS at 84 hours...although it could be argued it's more of a compromise scenario. EDIT: Upon further comparison, definitely an inbetween solution (NAM vs GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Precip behind the front on a lot of panels? The 90: The 96: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Certainly looks like the OP GFS is too fast. Thanks for posting those JoMo. I'm thinking the 12z GGEM may be the model of choice at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 heh, Euro has a 997 over NW Minnesota and a 1003 near LAF on Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 heh, Euro has a 997 over NW Minnesota and a 1003 near LAF on Day 3. Shorts, t-shirts, and turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Too bad they don't have a retractable roof in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wake me up when November ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Still holding his ground, H5 looks much like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 umket trending there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z NAM has the low level cold air undercutting the precip. Looks like heavy snow/ice along I-44 in MO this run up into IL. This is very conditional on thermal profiles and everything else and will likely change in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 18z NAM has the low level cold air undercutting the precip. Like I said in the MOOKARKS discussion, cold air undercutting precip would lead to freezing rain or possibly sleet, not snow. Apparently the NAM is showing more of a "bulldozer" solution with the front instead of an "undercutter" solution. Keep in mind that one bias of the NAM is to show bulldozers too often in the long-range (i.e., not many ice storms show up on hr 84). However, another bias of the NAM is to be too slow with the progression of cold air (the opposite of the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Finally got around to looking at the 12z GEM. It definitely took a step backward in the stronger secondary wave compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Like I said in the MOOKARKS discussion, cold air undercutting precip would lead to freezing rain or possibly sleet, not snow. Apparently the NAM is showing more of a "bulldozer" solution with the front instead of an "undercutter" solution. Keep in mind that one bias of the NAM is to show bulldozers too often in the long-range (i.e., not many ice storms show up on hr 84). However, another bias of the NAM is to be too slow with the progression of cold air (the opposite of the GFS). Precip algorithm on that counts sleet as snow. And as I showed you, 850 is +5 when the precip is falling in some areas before sharpening up the 850 front. However, 925 is very cold and surface temps marginal. NAM has a superior thermal field due to resolution so it is able to capture the cold air better. However, this is still a long ways out and the 12z was not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 If it was December this would be an unquestionable ZR setup. But in this case, don't know if bl temps will be cold enough. I'll have to check the soundings when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 00z NAM still showing the cold air undercutting the precip. This would probably be ice in MO/AR/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 00z NAM suggests a changeover to snow at the tail end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 00z NAM suggests a changeover to snow at the tail end here. Would actually be "measurable" (a little more than a trace) if it happens as the NAM says. Of course I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Still some fairly significant timing issues between the NAM and GFS. 0z NAM at 12z Thu 0z GFS at 12z Thu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Is there a problem with the NCEP server? I have not been able to access it for a few days now. Maybe I'm in the dark as to what's going on here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Is there a problem with the NCEP server? I have not been able to access it for a few days now. Maybe I'm in the dark as to what's going on here.. As far as accessing the model pages at NCEP? I'm having no issues with that at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 As far as accessing the model pages at NCEP? I'm having no issues with that at the moment. Guess it's not meant for me to look @ the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The NAM is way too slow IMO, but the GFS is still correcting from being too progressive. GEM this afternoon was a nice compromise...I like the 0z GFS still slowed down just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Guess it's not meant for me to look @ the models RaleighWx has a nice model page housed here if you need your fix. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I suspect the NAM has an idea with the slower progression of the trough (for once) mainly due to the amount of stable, cold air backed up across the intermountain west, GFS seems too fast. NAM is trending ever so slowly faster with each run, but not much. HPC seems to go with CMC/GFS ensemble. Seems reasonable, and probably safe at this time. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 waiting on the color map to get a better idea of the vorticity, but looks closer to the NAM then GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I suspect the NAM has an idea with the slower progression of the trough (for once) mainly due to the amount of stable, cold air backed up across the intermountain west, GFS seems too fast. NAM is trending ever so slowly faster with each run, but not much. HPC seems to go with CMC/GFS ensemble. Seems reasonable, and probably safe at this time. http://www.hpc.ncep....ef/h5pref.shtml Crazy.....the Rgem seems like the nam but faster.... I don't want to ask for your prediction, but this air mass is very very cold...and it's late November not October so this ending as frozen here isn't a total shocker. However i am curious if this is realistic at all...while I can understand what the nam is doing I don't know why. why does the colder stable air slow a trough? and why does the nam has so much vorticity along the trough compared to the gfs...and what mechanism causes the great lift over the same region(my area) as the cold air punches threw. sorry for all the questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The NAM is way too slow IMO, but the GFS is still correcting from being too progressive. GEM this afternoon was a nice compromise...I like the 0z GFS still slowed down just a bit. I agree with this. 12z GGEM seems they way to go...at the moment. Let's see what it has up its sleeve tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 anyone have a good link to the umket? I had one, but I lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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