BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 you bastards (jk of course) talking about this secondary bs are killing me. I can't even sleep through the 6z GFS as it is now so w/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 From seeing the H5 and thickness, the umket looks like it drives the first cold front hard and is colder then american models. and much further south with the 2nd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 you bastards (jk of course) talking about this secondary bs are killing me. I can't even sleep through the 6z GFS as it is now so w/e. It is unlikely but not impossible. I am more curious to see how the first wave of cold is handled...the models are still playing major catchup to how damn cold it is..and to the refrigerator being built right now over the Northern States/Canada in terms of cold and snow cover. the umket looks even colder bringing the 540 line almost to the northern STL metro. means nothing in terms of sensible weather for me, but the GFS has me wet bulbing 1c above freezing when the precip arrives..Can the models still be to warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That is in the evening..with the surface front still pushing south at this point it is in Mississippi/Alabama and still moving south. I wonder how much cold air can filter south before the return flow has precip breaking out over our areas the next day. This is likely nothing but still fascinating to me to see the models play catchup every run with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Surprised no one mentioned the 00z GEM. Shows a stronger secondary wave with enough cold air for snow on the western fringes. Definitely makes things a bit more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Surprised no one mentioned the 00z GEM. Shows a stronger secondary wave with enough cold air for snow on the western fringes. Definitely makes things a bit more interesting... No one mentioned it because if we do it will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wx models, love'em or hate'em. It's what we do. But hey I'm just making a call, that's all. We'll see I guess...if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Since I won't have to worry about watching for snow on Friday, I can relax and watch the Ducks on TV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 More model swings than sex swings at the playboy mansion to come with that storm popping up around hr 200-240.. It's not even December and I'm tired as a one legged man trying to jump rope. It's sick.I can't even sleep through the 6z GFS. No need for an alarm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 12z NAM dumps some serious rainfall from MO up to SW lower MI. And is trying to do something at 84 that would make Friv happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not a fair fight, but the 12z NAM is so much slower with the front than the 0z GFS at 0z Friday. 12z NAM 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The NAM is attempting to develop a low much further south - it would certainly make for some forecast changes. It is, and it does have some support from the GGEM. Although as usual, we tread lightly with the NAM at 84 hours. Still, it'll be interesting to see what the rest of the 12z model suite comes up with today. Pretty big difference between it and the GFS though...for here the NAM tells me to break out the shorts on Turkey Day...GFS a coat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It is, and it does have some support from the GGEM. Although as usual, we tread lightly with the NAM at 84 hours. Still, it'll be interesting to see what the rest of the 12z model suite comes up with today. Pretty big difference between it and the GFS though...for here the NAM tells me to break out the shorts on Turkey Day...GFS a coat. Yes precede with caution, but honestly with energy being left behind in the southwest/tailing behind, it isn't that far fetched to expect some sort of secondary low, I think trends certainly need to be monitored at they go along, also having support of the GGEM doesn't hurt the cause either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This northern low scenario hasn't rested well with me ever since it first showed up a few days ago. A few models even flip flopped on whether it would just be an inverted trough or low. My feelings on that haven't really changed; it's more likely to be an inverted trough and not a full closed low. If it does manage to close off, it'll most likely be weak. Now, I could be wrong on this, but there's plenty of climo and case studies to suggest that the southern low is often the dominant force and that it will usually track towards/into the inverted trough as the low matures. Link citing the phenomenon: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281994%29122%3C0565%3AITACOI%3E2.0.CO%3B2 In the end though, it's not going to do alot to change precip types or any real reason for anybody south of central WI to get excited about. It might help with the drought situation though, and that's welcome news in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This northern low scenario hasn't rested well with me ever since it first showed up a few days ago. A few models even flip flopped on whether it would just be an inverted trough or low. My feelings on that haven't really changed; it's more likely to be an inverted trough and not a full closed low. If it does manage to close off, it'll most likely be weak. Now, I could be wrong on this, but there's plenty of climo and case studies to suggest that the southern low is often the dominant force and that it will usually track towards/into the inverted trough as the low matures. Link citing the phenomenon: http://journals.amet...OI%3E2.0.CO%3B2 In the end though, it's not going to do alot to change precip types or any real reason for anybody south of central WI to get excited about. It might help with the drought situation though, and that's welcome news in itself. It might help areas to the east too, all depends on how progressive that northern low is, although at this stage it doesn't look to be that quick moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 12z NAM dumps some serious rainfall from MO up to SW lower MI. And is trying to do something at 84 that would make Friv happy. Would be funny if we go from most of the rain missing south to most of it missing north. I doubt that will happen, but this scenario has been morphing to some extent. NAM suggests a possible severe threat here on Thanksgiving if we can realize a little instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Would be funny if we go from most of the rain missing south to most of it missing north. I doubt that will happen, but this scenario has been morphing to some extent. NAM suggests a possible severe threat here on Thanksgiving if we can realize a little instability. Certainly remains possible that scenario plays out. At this point, if that happens, you have to chalk it up to some bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Certainly remains possible that scenario plays out. At this point, if that happens, you have to chalk it up to some bad luck. The GFS says better rains will be south, one of these models is going to bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The GFS says better rains will be south, one of these models is going to bust hard. Yeah, I just saw that. Compromise between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Yeah, I just saw that. Compromise between the two? Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The timing differences between the 12z NAM/GFS are pretty substantial to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The timing differences between the 12z NAM/GFS are pretty substantial to say the least. Lets see which way the GGEM/EURO go but I already have an idea which way they will lean, hint Good For Sh** isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lets see which way the GGEM/EURO go but I already have an idea which way they will lean, hint Good For Sh** isn't it. The GFS might be too quick to push the front through. I have a feeling that the GGEM/Euro will fall somewhere in between the NAM/GFS but it's really just a guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 The nam and rgem are now even colder with the first wave...bringing near freezing temps to me tomorrow am, a far cry from the mid 40s a few days ago. with 24 hours till the cold blasts threw, wonder if they will trend even colder. we say the models trend colder and stormier with the 2006 dec 1 storm because the surface cold within a 5-6 day period literally was hundreds of miles furthers south then models started out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not to go all voodoo but arctic sea ice extent is identical to 2006 Lock it in baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Wow, look at the difference at hour 78. GFS has a 988mb low north of Lake Superior, while at the same time the NAM has an elongated surface trough of around 1000mb extending well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not to go all voodoo but arctic sea ice extent is identical to 2006 Lock it in baby! Cool, I'll patiently wait for my Feb 2007 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I'll take the NAM please, it's been a while since a good old fashioned 48 hr rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Man it seems like we've been tracking this thing forever lol. It's still 70+hrs away! Hopefully the GEM keeps the trend going in the development of the southern low. It got a pretty good start with last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Just looked over the euro, didn't it have a 2nd low but a big further east? the 700,mb RH field and the H5 tail looking vorticity looks similar to the GEM cyclone- if it matters the RGEM looks like the nam threw 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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