wxdudemike Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Wonder if raleighwx has the euro ensem's? Guess I could go poke around.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html AccuwxPro doesn't have ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 GFS is definitely moving to a colder and stormier scenario for the holiday period, but as of now I don't see signs of a major snowstorm for Illinois or Indiana. Do wonder about some LES however in favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 too bad ggem don't go out past day 6 on 12Z runs but here's the 850 tmps for both ggem & euro at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 too bad ggem don't go out past day 6 on 12Z runs but here's the 850 tmps for both ggem & euro at day 6 You can get the GGEM out to 180 hours on the PSU EWALL site http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 AFD from GRB...thinking it will go further N & W than current runs. ONE THING IS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE A POTENT STORM AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. WHEN AND WHERE AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PER DISCUSSION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER... IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE TRACK WILL END UP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO LOOKING AT THE MODEL 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS THEORY. WILL HAVE TOKEN POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM...THEN MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY. NEW ECMWF IS OFF THE CHARTS WITH 969MB LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT SURE I CAN BUY THAT... BUT DO THINK A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WESTERN LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 You can get the GGEM out to 180 hours on the PSU EWALL site http://www.meteo.psu...mski/ewall.html thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Despite the GGEM going out to only 144 hrs, you can see where it wants to go beyond that time frame. It is not quite as positively tilted as the Euro, but still has energy diving down the backside of the trough at 500. So expect some continued digging. For the most part that trough depicted is ready to eject, so I would buy a more westerly low track verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Hard to tell why with the PSU maps, but the GGEM really continues to dump energy down the backside. It digs at least another 24 hours, with the low pressure really getting going in the Southern Plains compared to a low already in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Hard to tell why with the PSU maps, but the GGEM really continues to dump energy down the backside. It digs at least another 24 hours, with the low pressure really getting going in the Southern Plains compared to a low already in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on the Euro. 168-174 is good for me. I think everything will end up being farther north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 AFD from GRB...thinking it will go further N & W than current runs. ONE THING IS FAIRLY CERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE A POTENT STORM AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. WHEN AND WHERE AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PER DISCUSSION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER... IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE TRACK WILL END UP FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE MODEL RUNS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO LOOKING AT THE MODEL 850MB THERMAL PROFILES...THE 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS THEORY. WILL HAVE TOKEN POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY THINKING THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM...THEN MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY. NEW ECMWF IS OFF THE CHARTS WITH 969MB LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT SURE I CAN BUY THAT... BUT DO THINK A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR THE WESTERN LAKES. I have been thinking the same thing with the west shift that tends to happen. This is going to be an exciting few days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 It will be interesting to see the models resolve the cold air. nutoriously at the range they can be over 500 miles off with the surface cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Despite the GGEM going out to only 144 hrs, you can see where it wants to go beyond that time frame. It is not quite as positively tilted as the Euro, but still has energy diving down the backside of the trough at 500. So expect some continued digging. For the most part that trough depicted is ready to eject, so I would buy a more westerly low track verbatim. The GGEM solution is a bit odd. The track of the T-day storm is of course going to be somewhat dependent on where the previous system lays out the boundary. Of course, if it's as far south and strong as the EURO depicts, then there's probably going to be some serious track inconsistencies right up until about 48-72 hours before the event. The GGEM's solution is based around the assumption that that system will not be very strong, and the resultant surge of CAA doesn't make it as far. We're left with a rather broad thermal ribbon, and when that big trough comes in around 150+ (via PSU ewall site), it tries forcing 2 lows and has little problem flinging that front way north. What's odd is that the primary low is the southern one, but it doesn't really take over until it gets all the way to the Lakes. You would think one or the other would "win" the forcing game after that much time and become the dominant circulation much sooner. Taking a look at the Vort and thermal fields, the southern low should definitely be favored, so I'm not sure why that northern low would be hanging around so long. Jet circulation/left front quadrant forcing, maybe? I don't have a jet stream level chart of the GGEM unfortunately. This dual low thing is a bit interesting because the Euro was trying to do the same thing at 168 hr, but I'm not convinced that feature is going to be anything more than an inverted trough in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The GGEM solution is a bit odd. The track of the T-day storm is of course going to be somewhat dependent on where the previous system lays out the boundary. Of course, if it's as far south and strong as the EURO depicts, then there's probably going to be some serious track inconsistencies right up until about 48-72 hours before the event. The GGEM's solution is based around the assumption that that system will not be very strong, and the resultant surge of CAA doesn't make it as far. We're left with a rather broad thermal ribbon, and when that big trough comes in around 150+ (via PSU ewall site), it tries forcing 2 lows and has little problem flinging that front way north. What's odd is that the primary low is the southern one, but it doesn't really take over until it gets all the way to the Lakes. You would think one or the other would "win" the forcing game after that much time and become the dominant circulation much sooner. Taking a look at the Vort and thermal fields, the southern low should definitely be favored, so I'm not sure why that northern low would be hanging around so long. Jet circulation/left front quadrant forcing, maybe? I don't have a jet stream level chart of the GGEM unfortunately. This dual low thing is a bit interesting because the Euro was trying to do the same thing at 168 hr, but I'm not convinced that feature is going to be anything more than an inverted trough in the end. Conceptually speaking, that type of trough position you would think a southern, Panhandle hooker, would be a more favored low track. And of course, as you mentioned, everything depends on where, when and how deep the cold air intrusion is ahead of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Conceptually speaking, that type of trough position you would think a southern, Panhandle hooker, would be a more favored low track. And of course, as you mentioned, everything depends on where, when and how deep the cold air intrusion is ahead of the trough. Can you explain the cold air's impact in all of this please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The devil is in the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Can you explain the cold air's impact in all of this please. The baroclinic zone (boundary of warm/cold air) is going to be the path the low pressure wants to take. Where that sets up vs. where the models want to set it up is going to be the main thing to watch. With the energy coming down with the trough, there will be a significant storm of some sort in this time frame. So the question is really where (and when for those with travel plans ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18z DGEX takes the storm along the Ohio River. Doesn't really get its act together until its east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18z DGEX takes the storm along the Ohio River. Doesn't really get its act together until its east of the mountains. Almost a carbon copy of 12z GFS, but the pattern here is its stronger than the 6z, though, DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Slowed down and farther NW @ 144 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18z gfs is trying to get the storm going, just doesn't seem to dump as much energy into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Slowed down and farther NW @ 144 on the 18z GFS. Tracks south of Chicago, up through N. Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Slowed down and farther NW @ 144 on the 18z GFS. Yeah GFS joins the EURO/GGEM party. Bowme blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Booo, go south 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well, we are a week out. It will definitely be fun to see how the models resolve this issue and what track and intensity changes transpire between now and Turkey day. Certainly is an important forecast what with all the people who will be traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Booo, go south 100 miles i'll be in the D as well if we merge our wishcasting together we'll keep this storm south and away from those damn wisconsin posters that get hit every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 If the pattern is anything like what's being depicted, the low will be forced to occlude/try to redevelop farther east. Unfortunately that process could happen too late to save most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 i'll be in the D as well if we merge our wishcasting together we'll keep this storm south and away from those damn wisconsin posters that get hit every year. Madison WI has been the lucky spot in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Booo, go south 100 miles I'd be onboard with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah GFS joins the EURO/GGEM party. Bowme blizzard. No need to excite Bowme's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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