baroclinic_instability Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Difference between the 12z NAM/GFS at 84hrs. Shows the NAM phase shift problem over the US I have talked about in many forums. I would give the NAM a less than 5% chance of verifying. It will catch up to the GFS on speed with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Shows the NAM phase shift problem over the US I have talked about in many forums. I would give the NAM a less than 5% chance of verifying. It will catch up to the GFS on speed with each run. I would agree. Is the GFS the fastest model in terms of speed with the system hence less snowfall over a general area? I see the 12Z run pumps out 18-20" of snow over my area through 120 hours. Don't you think that seems like a bit much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What's that exactly showing? I suck at reading these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 NAM looks like it's crapping out some energy for a 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 What's that exactly showing? I suck at reading these models A deep closed low / positively tilted trough in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 00z GFS kind of looks interesting imo. A little bit colder (although not much) but it seems like the low might be farther to the south? Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 00z GFS kind of looks interesting imo. A little bit colder (although not much) but it seems like the low might be farther to the south? Not sure. It's only out to 48 hours on NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 00z GFS kind of looks interesting imo. A little bit colder (although not much) but it seems like the low might be farther to the south? Not sure. Just sped it up from the 12z through 72 and a surface low in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 12z hour 78 had a 996 LOW in SW NEB. 0z hour 66 has a LOW in NE NEB. Just a bit faster and weaker imo. Wonder if this "2nd" storm might happen like the GEFS has been hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 12z hour 78 had a 996 LOW in SW NEB. 0z hour 66 has a LOW in NE NEB. Just a bit faster and weaker imo. Wonder if this "2nd" storm might happen like the NAM/GEFS has been hinting at. The NAM doesn't even go out that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 True, but theres a lot of energy left behind yet, so it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 True, but theres a lot of energy left behind yet, so it could happen About as good of chance of happening as Oprah turning down baked ham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Still has some spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 lol bowme. How about them Packers today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Still has some spread A lot of that probably falls when it's too warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Still has some spread Doesn't matter. The mean slp is located north of the U.P. Really think anyone well south of that position is seeing snow? 100% of that QPF being shown in lower MI, IN, IL, MO, KY and OH is plain old rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 lol bowme. How about them Packers today? embarrass the Vikings and Wolverines at their place in the same weekend is as good as it gets.. 07/08 winter like Joy Along with a Few Kopps Cheeseburger burps in the air here this Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 It's not mean't to be taken literal, it's probably in response to some of the solutions having a 2nd wave with over-running precip. also the temps from the first cold front keep trending colder and colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Doesn't matter. The mean slp is located north of the U.P. Really think anyone well south of that position is seeing snow? 100% of that QPF being shown in lower MI, IN, IL, MO, KY and OH is plain old rain. Do not pass Go, do not collect 200 dollars... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 for shizzles n' giggles.....the canadian day 8-9 appears to have a good ole fashioned app runner....hard to tell but looks to take a low right up from the central gulf coast into central NY state at 975mb. at this point I'll just say....congrats BowMe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Do not pass Go, do not collect 200 dollars... Something like that. This one isn't producing any wintry precip south of I-80 or I-70, etc....second system or not. Time to move on to the next false hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Something like that. This one isn't producing any wintry precip south of I-80 or I-70, etc....second system or not. Time to move on to the next false hope... I dunno, I wouldn't rule out a quick changeover to something, somewhere as the cold air may slam eastward quick enough that it outruns the end of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 More model swings than sex swings at the playboy mansion to come with that storm popping up around hr 200-240.. It's not even December and I'm tired as a one legged man trying to jump rope. It's sick.I can't even sleep through the 6z GFS. No need for an alarm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I dunno, I wouldn't rule out a quick changeover to something, somewhere as the cold air may slam eastward quick enough that it outruns the end of the precip. I suppose it is possible...but I hate relying on the GFS and its cold bias to be exact with the speed and "intensity" of the cold. Not to mention timing it right with any leftover/lagging precipitation. I hope it happens though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Something like that. This one isn't producing any wintry precip south of I-80 or I-70, etc....second system or not. Time to move on to the next false hope... Us North of 80 will still be watching, and honestly there has been a slight trend towards more energy being left behind in the southwest. I think its something to monitor even down in LAF where the model haterade is out tonight it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I suppose it is possible...but I hate relying on the GFS and its cold bias to be exact with the speed and "intensity" of the cold. Not to mention timing it right with any leftover/lagging precipitation. I hope it happens though... I wouldn't rely on the GFS either, ride the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I dunno, I wouldn't rule out a quick changeover to something, somewhere as the cold air may slam eastward quick enough that it outruns the end of the precip. something similar happened a decade or so ago for our area... the front was supposed to go flying threw..and it did...and left over energy formed an impulse and the front slowed, so precip literally stopped progressing and started to train over us...kinda like the gem is starting to show and at the end we ended up with 3-4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I suppose it is possible...but I hate relying on the GFS and its cold bias to be exact with the speed and "intensity" of the cold. Not to mention timing it right with any leftover/lagging precipitation. I hope it happens though... If it were to happen, it would probably be somewhere in the Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio area and it would probably be pretty brief, unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Us North of 80 will still be watching, and honestly there has been a slight trend towards more energy being left behind in the southwest. I think its something to monitor even down in LAF where the model haterade is out tonight it seems. Wx models, love'em or hate'em. It's what we do. But hey I'm just making a call, that's all. We'll see I guess...if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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