Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Why does the GFS have much less vorticity? NAM has a higher resolution than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Why does the GFS have much less vorticity? You mentioned 18 hours in your previous post, not 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You mentioned 18 hours in your previous post, not 84. the vorticity at 18 hours was still much different...I just don't understand how the models work so similar if the higher resolution of the nam causes it to have more vorticity? Doesn't that equal a stronger storm? I am a layman, so I am just trying to get a better understanding of what i am looking at,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM has a higher resolution than the GFS. Quite honestly, the answer is far more complex than what you suggest. Resolution plays little to no role on why, at that particular hour, the NAM has 3-4 units of vorticity (3-4 x 10^-5 /s^1). Also be careful about how it is shaded. Here I could argue they have similar units of vorticity at 84 hours. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=11&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=11&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=RELV&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Really disappointed that this arctic air has been watered down from 5 days to 1 day and back up to the mid 40s by Saturday. Would have liked some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 the vorticity at 18 hours was still much different...I just don't understand how the models work so similar if the higher resolution of the nam causes it to have more vorticity? Doesn't that equal a stronger storm? I am a layman, so I am just trying to get a better understanding of what i am looking at,. Well, it is really quite difficult to explain without getting into serious mathematics and dynamics, which includes the primitive equations and/or a lesson in quasigeostrophic theory regarding synoptic meteorology. I talk about some dynamics and quasigeostrophic a bit in this post. Math equations are there but you can understand it if you read it closely. http://jasonahsenmac...nt-1112-142010/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 the vorticity at 18 hours was still much different...I just don't understand how the models work so similar if the higher resolution of the nam causes it to have more vorticity? Doesn't that equal a stronger storm? I am a layman, so I am just trying to get a better understanding of what i am looking at,. I don't want to make this too off-topic, but here is another post regarding synoptic meteorology, in this case upper level height falls. Either way, it really is more complex than an issue of resolution. Honestly, if you want to get more in-depth, start a new thread and I will be willing to get more in-depth just so we don't get off-topic here. http://jasonahsenmacher.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/weak-elevated-convective-instability-associated-with-dynamic-height-falls/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Quite honestly, the answer is far more complex than what you suggest. Resolution plays little to no role on why, at that particular hour, the NAM has 3-4 units of vorticity (3-4 x 10^-5 /s^1). Also be careful about how it is shaded. Here I could argue they have similar units of vorticity at 84 hours. http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false The vorticity that you can see on the NAM is also on the GFS (I agree), but why can you see it more clearly at NCEP on the NAM and not on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The vorticity that you can see on the NAM is also on the GFS (I agree), but why can you see it more clearly at NCEP on the NAM and not on the GFS? You should probably just start a new thread on this if you and frivolous want to, this discussion could on a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 You should probably just start a new thread on this if you and frivolous want to, this discussion could on a long time. Fair enough. I'll let Frivolousz21 have the honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 0z NAM still further south than than 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 thanks guys, I gotta get my son to bed I will start the thread in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 0Z GGEM about the same as 12Z but weaker with surface L. ND & n MN...congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I think this thread subtitle should be changed to " a potentially major spread the boredom storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 0Z ukie day 4 999 L in nw MO then to green bay on day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 What does the EURO show? Probably nothing big since no one posted anything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nothing to get excited about at this point, but several of the GFS ensemble members develop a secondary system out of the left over energy in the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nothing to get excited about at this point, but several of the GFS ensemble members develop a secondary system out of the left over energy in the Southwest. Interestingly enough the LOLGAPS does too.......Which would make sense with the amount of energy being left over....... Has to be a mirage though...... (maybe reverse psychology will work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nothing to get excited about at this point, but several of the GFS ensemble members develop a secondary system out of the left over energy in the Southwest. Interesting how much variety there was with those ensembles. They are all over the place with this series of systems. Definitely leads one to believe a strong secondary system is still possible. Sort of makes sense given the strong trough and arctic air intrusion. Sometimes when the lead storm ends up riding much further to the north than earlier modeled we end up with a secondary/further south storm. This is obviously a very complex setup, so we definitely don't want to turn our backs to this thing. Not that one person on this board ever would lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS this morning shows a lot of precip for us here... Have no idea what to expect... Maybe just say a few inches and play it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The PV on the 12z GFS is quite a bit further south then the 00z if that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Interesting how much variety there was with those ensembles. They are all over the place with this series of systems. Definitely leads one to believe a strong secondary system is still possible. Sort of makes sense given the strong trough and arctic air intrusion. Sometimes when the lead storm ends up riding much further to the north than earlier modeled we end up with a secondary/further south storm. This is obviously a very complex setup, so we definitely don't want to turn our backs to this thing. Not that one person on this board ever would lmao. So we would want this to cut as far west and north to give a secondary a chance to pop in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Nice soaker for the OV on the positive side. Maybe I'll get two chances at thunder on Thanksgiving week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 DLH and that general area looks to cash according to the 12z GFS. Also gives central IN a big time soaker on Turkey Eve-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 "Next" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Any good news on the storm? Can't see the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS, whether right or wrong, has a nice swath of 3-4" total QPF (from now through 0z Saturday) from HUF to IND to DAY to CAK. It'd be nice if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Any good news on the storm? Can't see the models. Thinking about traveling to Duluth MN? If not, then no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Thinking about traveling to Duluth MN? If not, then no. I am near Duluth. How much is the 12Z showing for qpf and snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Oh well. Anything on the horizon TIm? Or does the gfs still suck through d16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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