Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Soooo, looks like Powerball is going to be 0 for 1 in starting storm threads. Noted for future considerations. 0 for 1 and retired I think, lets get the storm in the day 5 window next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I would laugh if the 0z runs show a big storm affecting most of us again. Doubt it happens, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 0 for 1 and retired I think, lets get the storm in the day 5 window next time At least there will be a storm even if it probably won't be to most of our liking. Personally I like the 5 day thing, although you are talking to the guy who once started a thread 8 days out for an April snow threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 At least there will be a storm even if it probably won't be to most of our liking. Personally I like the 5 day thing, although you are talking to the guy who once started a thread 8 days out for an April snow threat... True. It was very hard to believe on some of those runs when little or no storm was being produced. Just seemed impossible given everything in place with this large scale setup. At least someone will cash in on decent snow, even if it is northwest of the majority of us. Certain aspects of the system could still be interesting as well, as pointed out in detail in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Still plenty of time for the storm go back in the other direction, but seems as the trend is going the other way at this time. Still a long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 At least there will be a storm even if it probably won't be to most of our liking. Personally I like the 5 day thing, although you are talking to the guy who once started a thread 8 days out for an April snow threat... Fair enough, I mean there will be a storm but its going to be a big zzz factory for almost all of us it looks like unless something amazing changes (unlikely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Fair enough, I mean there will be a storm but its going to be a big zzz factory for almost all of us it looks like unless something amazing changes (unlikely). Should point out that I had some flakes in that event, but Harry got like 6" IIRC. Those farther south really shouldn't be disappointed with this type of outcome. I mean, you'd sort of expect this from a climo perspective and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Should point out that I had some flakes in that event, but Harry got like 6" IIRC. Those farther south really shouldn't be disappointed with this type of outcome. I mean, you'd sort of expect this from a climo perspective and nothing more. Yeah I really won't be upset if we get no snow, because as was said somewhere else by Josh, we have really only had 2 semi decent snow falls in the last 10 years in November here. So it really has become unusual to have snow in November of great significance in recent times. As someone said earlier this is just more of a snowpack builder to the north and a drought reliever to the south, which are both good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 0 for 1 and retired I think, lets get the storm in the day 5 window next time Seems like a reasonable timeframe. I guess the build up, outside 5 days, can always go in the general [insert month here] thread. At least there will be a storm even if it probably won't be to most of our liking. Personally I like the 5 day thing, although you are talking to the guy who once started a thread 8 days out for an April snow threat... I remember that. April snow threads, 8 days out, can be forgiven though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yeah I really won't be upset if we get no snow, because as was said somewhere else by Josh, we have really only had 2 semi decent snow falls in the last 10 years in November here. So it really has become unusual to have snow in November of great significance in recent times. As someone said earlier this is just more of a snowpack builder to the north and a drought reliever to the south, which are both good things. This I can agree with. Really the only thing I'm concerned about, for the region as a whole, is how the cold arrives and how long is lasts. Also maybe a little indication on how spastic, or not, the models are going to be this winter. Although that may be asking for too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Not sure if this was posted already, but just for fun...(12z FIM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Not sure if this was posted already, but just for fun...(12z FIM) Looks like double-barreled (or broad circ) poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 This I can agree with. Really the only thing I'm concerned about, for the region as a whole, is how the cold arrives and how long is lasts. Also maybe a little indication on how spastic, or not, the models are going to be this winter. Although that may be asking for too much. Euro is pushing things out too quickly, I can tell you that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro is pushing things out too quickly, I can tell you that. Yeah, I hardly expect the cold air to move out as fast as the models suggests, meteorological aspect aside it goes against physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 One thought that came to mind today was a possible energy split if we do get two low centers (or an elongated occluded low). In other words someone could be left (relative to the system) high & dry with all the active weather north & south of them. That also won't help those on the snowy side either (the southern low would rob it of all the moisture). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Euro is pushing things out too quickly, I can tell you that. Well I'm not a fan of the 12z Euro creating that "low pressure" off the FL and then SC coasts...and a big cut-off low in the middle of the country past hour 168. From the ECMWF site (crappy graphics withstanding), the ensembles seem to want nothing of that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well I'm not a fan of the 12z Euro creating that "low pressure" off the FL and then SC coasts...and a big cut-off low in the middle of the country past hour 168. From the ECMWF site (crappy graphics withstanding), the ensembles seem to want nothing of that stuff. Well don't worry you'll see something different in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well don't worry you'll see something different in a few hours. This seems like a safe bet. 0z NAM continues to deliver the goods (rainfall/storms) here for late Monday night-early Tuesday morning. +1 NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 This seems like a safe bet. 0z NAM continues to deliver the goods (rainfall/storms) here for late Monday night-early Tuesday morning. +1 NAM. Ugly when we +1 the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Ugly when we +1 the NAM I'm (we're) desperate for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I'm (we're) desperate for rain. It probably depends on Monday night. The Thanksgiving storm doesn't look too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 It probably depends on Monday night. The Thanksgiving storm doesn't look too promising. Agreed. One shot deal (Mon-Tue) and then hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM keeps trending stronger/colder with the surface cold front on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see how much colder it trends and stronger by then as models struggle to catch up to the cold. the nam drives the front into central Arkansas at 84 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS overall at h5 is much weaker then the NAM threw 18 hours is this just a resolution issue between the two models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM keeps trending stronger/colder with the surface cold front on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see how much colder it trends and stronger by then as models struggle to catch up to the cold. the nam drives the front into central Arkansas at 84 hours.. Meanwhile the 540 line is still riding I-80. This is probably bad going forward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS overall at h5 is much weaker then the NAM threw 18 hours is this just a resolution issue between the two models? Through 18 hours of the 0Z run? I hardly see any significant differences regarding the height field. Resolution wise, the spectral wave GFS averages out to 25-27 km's, NAM is 12, really not any difference when regarding synoptic features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS is prolly going to be slower than the 12z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 This run of the GFS is stronger with the push of cold air. One notable trend is the models have been trending stronger with the lead short wave. That will eventually impact the evolution of this storm as well (but the models are still trying to catch on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GFS is prolly going to be slower than the 12z for sure. About 6hrs slower by 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Through 18 hours of the 0Z run? I hardly see any significant differences regarding the height field. Resolution wise, the spectral wave GFS averages out to 25-27 km's, NAM is 12, really not any difference when regarding synoptic features. Why does the GFS have much less vorticity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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