baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The bigger problem I have is the interaction between the first system (Monday) and the second one (Wed/Thurs). The trend with the first system is for it to be stronger, which inturn should drive the front further east with a stronger push of CAA behind it. Unless there is a major amount of WAA ahead of the 2nd system, I would find it hard pressed to go west of Chicago. I think you answered yourself in a way. The Euro tries to take that cold pool right through the center of the Rockies...a very hard thing to do, and something that doesn't happen much. Because of that farther W track and because the trough deepens farther S under the influence of low level CAA, the cross barrier flow over the Rockies sets in motion more lee troughing and S flow/warm air advection, building the downstream ridge more ala 12 CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The bigger problem I have is the interaction between the first system (Monday) and the second one (Wed/Thurs). The trend with the first system is for it to be stronger, which inturn should drive the front further east with a stronger push of CAA behind it. Unless there is a major amount of WAA ahead of the 2nd system, I would find it hard pressed to go west of Chicago. From a forecasting standpoint, that is the forecast. In my time, the cold air the Euro is plunging through the center of the Rockies is very RARE. It is going to take an epic plunge to pass over the entire intermountain west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 This is mostly why I am leaning towards the now more realistic 0Z CMC and the GFS which ejects most of the wave into the plains with a weaker wave trailing through the 4 corners then ejecting behind the main wave. This results in less lee troughing and less warm air advection and downstream upper level ridging and hence less tilt and a track not as far W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think you answered yourself in a way. The Euro tries to take that cold pool right through the center of the Rockies...a very hard thing to do, and something that doesn't happen much. Because of that farther W track and because the trough deepens farther S under the influence of low level CAA, the cross barrier flow over the Rockies sets in motion more lee troughing and S flow/warm air advection, building the downstream ridge more ala 12 CMC. Wow, great explanations. I'm just following this system out of curiosity since it doesn't have much potential for snow/cold in the NYC suburbs, but it looks as if the GFS shows three separate weak lows ejecting out of the main western trough, with the first two giving snow mostly to ND/SD/MN and then the final system getting more towards WI/MI. ECM wants to wrap up the later systems into more of a traditional cutter. The 0z ECM also seems to keep pounding the idea of a Plains trough with ridging ahead of it in the LR; I noticed it's much warmer than the GFS in the East because the strong -NAO actually forces the ULL near the Canadian Maritimes to retrograde into the Hudson Bay region, and this feature wants to try a phase w/ a s/w coming into the Plains around Day 9/10 and increase 5H heights ahead of it. This looks like it would be another opportunity for great snows across NE/SD/ND/MN etc, Building up some snow cover is good but I'm a little worried about the -PNA developing and whether the GFS is correct in breaking this feature down and giving the East a colder look after the Thanksgiving FROPA. Is this a realistic analysis of what's going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I would think the European Model's depiction would give Thunderstorms all the way up to Northern Michigan based upon the 850mb temp/dew extrapolating the day 5/6 maps It seems we do agree that the farther W track of the surface low doesn't seem a high probability at this point. We agree on something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 It seems we do agree that the farther W track of the surface low doesn't seem a high probability at this point. We agree on something! somewhat of an outlier atm, euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Totally agree with the analysis so far. The "large" storm that everyone was hopping for was based on a phase of the northern stream wave associated with the PV, and that southern wave that can be seen in the nam or gfs that is slightly outside the mean trough at this point. I still dont think that the storm can be written off either way but that trailing wave has to phase with the mean trough to get a decent storm, the later the phase the worse it is for the midwest. It seems like the mean trough isn't going to be negatively tilted and a lack of a phase tends to explain why we have the polar boundary with very little cyclogenesis occuring. If you want snow hope for a deeper western trough, to basically slow down the mean flow and to watch to see if the trailing wave can catch up to the northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I agree cmich... I don't get a feeling of a decent snow out of this in terms of "big snow" perhaps I should say. Phasing just isnt there to be honest... but again still some time to watch these things unfold. I would just caution folks with plans to keep paying attention as the pattern could cause some pretty big changes if one or two things happen at the right time. Potential is still there, likely we get a big storm ... not really. Not yet anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I agree cmich... I don't get a feeling of a decent snow out of this in terms of "big snow" perhaps I should say. Phasing just isnt there to be honest... but again still some time to watch these things unfold. I would just caution folks with plans to keep paying attention as the pattern could cause some pretty big changes if one or two things happen at the right time. Potential is still there, likely we get a big storm ... not really. Not yet anyways. I agree Justin, there is just a lot of energy and a lot of cold air to work with, to write anything off right now would be a mistake especially since its still 5ish days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I just love how colorful the Quad Cities forecast discussions get in the winter time; LOCAL STUDIES MERGED WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM SYSTEM WITH A SWATH OF 4 TO 8+ INCH SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NW SECTOR. THE LOCATION OF THIS SWATH AND IF IT PASSES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IS THE KEY QUESTION. AGAIN...WE SHOULD SEE MORE PHASING CLARITY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS TO IDENTIFY ANY AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE FOR RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A SNOW COVER. THANKSGIVING DAY ON TAP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST...IF NOT SNOWIEST FOR MANY MANY YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I just love how colorful the Quad Cities forecast discussions get in the winter time; Wow, they are really pulling the trigger. Must be going 100% 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 They are going to have to walk that back a bit I have a feeling. Our folks at the NWS always jump all in with the most ominous of possible situations only to walk it back as we get closer. I'm not going to rule out a swath of snow in our local areas, particularly the West half, but 4-8" seems a bit much considering warm ground/situation that could involve rain changing to snow if we start a little warmer than progged with possibly initially marginal temps/ and the fact that nothing is close to being certain at this point. I understand wanting to highlight the potential but I would have worded that way, way differently something along the lines of pay attention there could be some snow in the Thanksgiving holiday time frame but still a lot of uncertainty- emphasis on a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 They are going to have to walk that back a bit I have a feeling. Our folks at the NWS always jump all in with the most ominous of possible situations only to walk it back as we get closer. I'm not going to rule out a swath of snow in our local areas, particularly the West half, but 4-8" seems a bit much considering warm ground/situation that could involve rain changing to snow if we start a little warmer than progged with possibly initially marginal temps/ and the fact that nothing is close to being certain at this point. I understand wanting to highlight the potential but I would have worded that way, way differently something along the lines of pay attention there could be some snow in the Thanksgiving holiday time frame but still a lot of uncertainty- emphasis on a lot. Yeah, definitely agree. Especially as this is on one lone Euro run with what seems to be a low (i.e. less than 20% chance of phasing). At least it was only in the internal discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I think the drought will ease here eventually, but man, looking at that is just comical. Mother Nature keeps seeking out ways to not bring significant precip here. Wow. I thought the same thing when I saw that. Unlike the NOCRAPS, the GEM is showing the precip hole in Southern IN. There's still time for it to move north though. May be our drought buster will come when it's cold enough for a real snow dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Also we are going to have a very wet ground if we get decent rains ahead of this potential system as well... warm and wet ground usually doesn't allow snow to accumulate very fast. I just don't see the reasoning to jump in one just one particular model and one particular run its not the best or most professional thing to do. You have to look at everything and the trends and none of those factors favor a big system, nothing I'm seeing anyways. Now as we get more upper air data in the coming days and the other models start coming around to a similar conclusion and show a better phasing or potential of likely phasing then I'll bite but not until then. I've seen this to many times to know better, I'd like to see one big chunk of energy come on out, phase, and have the cold air in place or have the arctic front the storm rides up along in a favorable position- none of that is there yet when taking ALL the models at face value. I still think you watch for trends and see how the models handle the set up- we'll be past that stage and ready to start making some concrete calls probably by Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 As I said eariler, I wouldn't be disappointed at all if this storm did in fact fall through the cracks. Our pattern normally doesn't take a turn for the worse (active) in La Ninas until mid December. It's too early in the season to be getting frustrated over this system. We need that northern stream PV to dig a little harder (and not shear out in the process). Anyway, looks like EURO is becoming a strong outlier with respect to the SE Ridge and the neutral/negative tilt now as the 00z GGEM is trending back towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 LES'll be ripping next Friday and Saturday, probably extending inland a fair bit. If you're content with 0.2-0.3" type bullcrap, I think we've got a good shot. Well Im not "content" with it, however Ill take it over nothing, absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 They are going to have to walk that back a bit I have a feeling. Our folks at the NWS always jump all in with the most ominous of possible situations only to walk it back as we get closer. I'm not going to rule out a swath of snow in our local areas, particularly the West half, but 4-8" seems a bit much considering warm ground/situation that could involve rain changing to snow if we start a little warmer than progged with possibly initially marginal temps/ and the fact that nothing is close to being certain at this point. I understand wanting to highlight the potential but I would have worded that way, way differently something along the lines of pay attention there could be some snow in the Thanksgiving holiday time frame but still a lot of uncertainty- emphasis on a lot. The NWS here tends to jump the gun saying a big, ominous storm is coming and most times it either goes west, south, or east of here. But for certain we will get lake effect snow. That is what is nice here we get snow no matter what happens. I would say 85% of out snow is from lake effect and the rest is synoptic. It would be nice to get a good foot of system snow to make a good base for snowmobiling and skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z GFS does produce a stronger storm in the Lakes this run. Basically the same areas as before but increased amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z GFS does produce a stronger storm in the Lakes this run. Basically the same areas as before but increased amounts. cold shot post-thanksgiving looks weaker and weaker. The sunday following thanksgiving now looks seasonable in the OV (+3 850s over central OH), vs. well below normal that was being shown the last few days. I'm really starting to wonder about calls for a 'typically' cold nina december around here. Indices say after the first of DEC the nao starts back to neutral/positive, ao starts going back up, and the pna starts going back negative. we could end up with a cromartie december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12Z GGEM day 5 has 994 L in n MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12Z GGEM day 5 has 994 L in n MN That might mean rain for me. That is not good but at least there is a storm in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 That might mean rain for me. That is not good but at least there is a storm in the lakes. the ggem takes the L thru NE to n MN...rain for me on the start then the dry slot....each run now loses the cold air it had forecasted in earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Funny... Saukville told me this morning this thing was going to end up in the Dakotas. I think he may end up being right. Someone give that guy a red tag or at least make him a moderator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 congrats FGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 WOW...what is up with the gem at 144???? totally different = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 WOW...what is up with the gem at 144???? totally different = The main system is already through... Overrunning event to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The main system is already through... Overrunning event to the south.. that map doesn't look like a good snow setup....even for places in the northern OV. You have a low pressure north of the lakes where you would prefer to have a pressing cold high. Give me a banana high and a low coming out of the southern plains/western gulf and then I'll get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The main system is already through... Overrunning event to the south.. Of course, if the models trend to leave more energy behind, then maybe a stronger southern event will happen, don't forget Dec 1st 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Funny... Saukville told me this morning this thing was going to end up in the Dakotas. I think he may end up being right. Someone give that guy a red tag or at least make him a moderator. Did you go out this hunting this morning? Talk to your brothers? I didn't see nothing but tree rats.. I said F it at 11 and sucumbed to the Badgers. F'em Bucky! 24-0! GFS looked stronger and coming to see the Dr. There is a reason they charge for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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