Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Again models = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 5 day euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 D6 990mb low in North-Central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Can't delete post for some reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 So we have the UKIE, GGEM, EURO, GFS all not showing anything close to the same thing. LOLModels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 day 6 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 No energy hanging back this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 D6 990mb low in North-Central Wisconsin. So the exact details remain unclear but the general idea is that we'll probably have a seasonably strong low heading for the Lakes around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 No energy haning back this time. Does that mean a stronger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icey Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 What do you think the snow ratios will be 15:1? I'm a little worried that a warm ground could hurt accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Does that mean a stronger storm? Yeah, it's a closed low that comes out which causes a storm to form around Kansas City which tracks to the NE into Wisconsin. Prolly snow to the NW of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 What do you think the snow ratios will be 15:1? I'm a little worried that a warm ground could hurt accumulation I don't think it pays to try to figure out ratios 5 days ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Hmm, what is all this talk about the models being totally different and changing? As Hoosier says, it really hasn't changed all that much. Snow for Wiscony, upper Great Lakes, and northern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12 hours from now, these models will be way different. No point in trying to go into details 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 EURO starting to create a bigger storm, for a certain someone in nebraska lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Hmm, what is all this talk about the models being totally different and changing? As Hoosier says, it really hasn't changed all that much. Snow for Wiscony, upper Great Lakes, and northern MN. The outcome may not be different, but the upper level pattern on some of the models continues to change significantly from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Hmm, what is all this talk about the models being totally different and changing? As Hoosier says, it really hasn't changed all that much. Snow for Wiscony, upper Great Lakes, and northern MN. Some of the lesser phased models had been showing snow in MI/IL/S. WI where as this would be thunderstorms for those regions, there is differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 on the new euro run doesn't get as cold as earlier runs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 on the new euro run doesn't get as cold as earlier runs had. Where did you get those images from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Some of the lesser phased models had been showing snow in MI/IL/S. WI where as this would be thunderstorms for those regions, there is differences. We must be talking about different times. I was referencing what others were which was 120 hours out. Seems to be mostly the same regions seeing best snow accumulations have remained so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Where did you get those images from? make my own using gempak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 on the new euro run doesn't get as cold as earlier runs had. Yeah, both the Euro and the GFS warmed it up much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 We must be talking about different times. I was referencing what others were which was 120 hours out. Seems to be mostly the same regions seeing best snow accumulations have remained so. No we are talking about the same times, and I don't mean best accumulations but compare the GFS to the Euro for example, MI for the GFS would be snow for the Euro thunderstorms. One is more phased than the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 No we are talking about the same times, and I don't mean best accumulations but compare the GFS to the Euro for example, MI for the GFS would be snow for the Euro thunderstorms. One is more phased than the other. Yes they are differences as expected, snow comes a tad later in the Euro, I guess I have been referencing the snow since this board seems dedicated to how much snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Euro occludes the system, I'm not buying that just yet, this will all depend on where and how far south that cold front pushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Does the EURO show snow in WI at all? Like where bowme and I live or is it just snow in the NW part of WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Yes they are differences as expected, snow comes a tad later in the Euro, I guess I have been referencing the snow since this board seems dedicated to how much snow falls. Well I just think the point is that track west isn't locked in even if it phases either. Honestly any spot in the Great Lakes is subject to snow or on the other side of the coin, thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 The bigger problem I have is the interaction between the first system (Monday) and the second one (Wed/Thurs). The trend with the first system is for it to be stronger, which inturn should drive the front further east with a stronger push of CAA behind it. Unless there is a major amount of WAA ahead of the 2nd system, I would find it hard pressed to go west of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Well I just think the point is that track west isn't locked in even if it phases either. Honestly any spot in the Great Lakes is subject to snow or on the other side of the coin, thunderstorms. Yeah I apologize, I should have made it more clear. The tracks amongst all models have been consistent with snow in northern MI and the UP, WI/Northern MN. I don't see any difference. Thunderstorms over the upper great lakes would pretty much be impossible, so I don't know what you mean by "snow or the other side of the coin, thunderstorms." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Yeah I apologize, I should have made it more clear. The tracks amongst all models have been consistent with snow in northern MI and the UP, WI/Northern MN. I don't see any difference. Thunderstorms over the upper great lakes would pretty much be impossible, so I don't know what you mean by "snow or the other side of the coin, thunderstorms." I would think the European Model's depiction would give Thunderstorms all the way up to Northern Michigan based upon the 850mb temp/dew extrapolating the day 5/6 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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