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Midwest Thanksgiving Storm...

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Central/Western States

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Powerball

Powerball

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I like the enthusiasm, but we need to start getting realistic and look at reality. As we have now seen with each model run, regardless of where it comes from, this storm is going to break down into a number of successive waves, and all models feature a positive tilt. Even with that, there can be expected to be a decent amount of cyclogenesis, but this storm is unlikely to wrap into a massive bomb with a positive tilt. Why? Let us just think of this from a synoptic meteorology perspective. First, all models are trending farther north with the final wave. Why does that matter? Gulf Flow and warm air advection combined with strong effects of diabatic heating due to latent heat release can ALTER the upper level height field. In other words, if warm air advection dominates low levels, remember from QG theory (QG Chi) heights will rise aloft. This increases the tilt--in other words, a strong PV Anomaly can take on a negative tilt even with a previously positive tilt trough, and strong amounts of vorticity advection aloft are advected by the geostrophic wind with further increases cyclogenesis. This becomes a positive feedback effect. This is looking less likely with each run as the models don't develop a large trough near the Gulf. Given that, the size of the trough and the amount of baroclinity along the boundary will still allow respectable cyclogenesis and a decent system over the Great Lakes/Wisconsin and possibly northern MN. But not a 960 bomb, I find a blend between CMC and GFS realistic in terms of intensity.

I did a long synoptic diagnosis in an earlier post about the northern plains winter storm dealing with synoptics and how they develop cyclones and how models can stink it up. http://jasonahsenmac...nt-1112-142010/

To be fair, no one here has asserted the possiblity of this storm becoming an armageddon bomb.

That said, a storm doens't have to be historic to be major.

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Powerball

Powerball

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I know in 2008 (or 2007) there was a late November storm where a CCB managed to develop on the NE side ofthe low that gave Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan (west of I-69) a front end thumping of 3-6" (precip ended before hte warmer profiles arrived). These reigons were dry slotted for the remainder of the storm. Interestingly enough this surprise event for N. IN/S. MI wasn't picked up by any model of NWS branch (IWX was nowcasting high-end snow advisories).

I suppose the same thing could happen this time if we get a good CCB.

The low itself tracked from Indianapolis to Detroit.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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I hope I'm wrong but I've got the sneaking suspicion this is going to be a 1,500 post thread for a storm that ends up giving 8 flakes for 95% of us.

I here you. I guess it's got to be part most of us starving for any action and part model madness. Disappointment in the end...highly probable...depending on one's perspective/location. I've made my peace with this "storm" already arrowheadsmiley.png ...let the chips fall where they may.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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I here you. I guess it's got to be part most of us starving for any action and part model madness. Disappointment in the end...highly probable...depending on one's perspective/location. I've made my peace with this "storm" already arrowheadsmiley.png ...let the chips fall where they may.

True. Chances are even if a strong storm does in fact develop, many of us on the board will end up being disappointed with their end result. I'd rather see a storm nail someone else and miss me than see no storm at all. I know one thing, if a storm doesn't materialize this will be a sad waste of numerous favorable ingredients...

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KeenerWx

KeenerWx

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I here you. I guess it's got to be part most of us starving for any action and part model madness. Disappointment in the end...highly probable...depending on one's perspective/location. I've made my peace with this "storm" already arrowheadsmiley.png ...let the chips fall where they may.

Honestly, I'll be happy if we end up with snow showers. It'll put me in a festive spirit.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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I here you. I guess it's got to be part most of us starving for any action and part model madness. Disappointment in the end...highly probable...depending on one's perspective/location. I've made my peace with this "storm" already arrowheadsmiley.png ...let the chips fall where they may.

I see this storm falling apart and the GFS not showing anything for 16 days and my inner weenie starts coming out. Oh noze! 88-89! 99-00! No snow Nina! And other such ridiculousness.

Gotta get a hold of my demons. :axe:

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

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I'll just be happy if the cold I've been teased with on the models for the last 2+ weeks finally arrives and stays a bit.

It's been before the 07/08 winter that the ground has got any frost into it before the snow falls and sticks for the winter. Any snow that accumulates now will be killed from the top and below fast. Basically this snow is for the weenie, record books and a quick snowball/man and a day sledding.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Honestly, I'll be happy if we end up with snow showers. It'll put me in a festive spirit.

Me too.

I see this storm falling apart and the GFS not showing anything for 16 days and my inner weenie starts coming out. Oh noze! 88-89! 99-00! No snow Nina! And other such ridiculousness.

Gotta get a hold of my demons. :axe:

Or you could just harken the memories from last winter. fever.gif

But yeah, you need to reign in the demons. Let BowMe do the freaking about a snowless/torch-filled winter. For now...

j/k BowMe. :)

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

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Yeah I really have no place to whine on here... Plus I have almost gotten my mind numb to the fact this winter could blowme. If anybody should get a whine pass it's our Toronto friends after last season.

This is weird and sad.. Yr #2 spent not up at deer camp with pops and the gang.. My dad hasn't seen a deer in 7 days up there... No way I'm wasting my time with that garbage when I can sit on the farm down here and have just a good of chance and there has been a couple monsters seen in the area, but with the rut going on they could be 5 miles away now. On the bright side I'll have running water and the weather models thanks to the DNR.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Yeah I really have no place to whine on here... Plus I have almost gotten my mind numb to the fact this winter could blowme. If anybody should get a whine pass it's our Toronto friends after last season.

You know I was just kidding, right? But if this winter "blewyou", wouldn't that be a good thing? nerdsmiley.png

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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To be fair, no one here has asserted the possiblity of this storm becoming an armageddon bomb.

That said, a storm doens't have to be historic to be major.

I am referencing that, as meteorologists and weather enthusiasts, we can still make decent assertions even when models arent in perfect agreement or are having issues. I was actually not trying to flame anyone, as a forecaster, I guess I would just like to see more attempts at forecasting instead of model guessing. Also, some members seem to believe only superbombs are worth it. I agree with your assertion, even this storm will have large impacts and wide ranging effects and doesn't need to be a nuclear bomb.

This was all that I was requesting:

"I like the enthusiasm, but we need to start getting realistic and look at reality". Enthusiasm is good but we should root some it in reality.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Right now, I'm more concerned about severe weather potential in the south than with snow potential up here...

Yeah, I think this could potentially be a big outbreak from the OV south.

Severe convection in Nov seems weird, especially that far north. I agree though, a small window of opportunity, right now it seems it will be challenging to develop sufficient buoyancy, but with that kind of unidirectional vertical shear and mid level winds in excess of 90 knots, even weak convection will support a moderate wind threat across the OH valley.

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Stebo

Stebo

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Severe convection in Nov seems weird, especially that far north. I agree though, a small window of opportunity, right now it seems it will be challenging to develop sufficient buoyancy, but with that kind of unidirectional vertical shear and mid level winds in excess of 90 knots, even weak convection will support a moderate wind threat across the OH valley.

I think the bigger problems would be south of the OV though, the OV is the northern fringe of it.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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I think the bigger problems would be south of the OV though, the OV is the northern fringe of it.

Personally, for a case of severe convection that is, I would like to see a slightly more tilted downstream ridge of the upper trough to support a more favorable curved cyclonic jet profile and stronger height falls during the day to help supress the convection until late, prolly more CMC than GFS. Even a solution in between CMC and GFS would yield a respectable storm environment.

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msp

msp

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Those of us in TX, OK, and points E are watching the severe potential carefully. I'll be interested to see how this plays out near Sunday via guidance.

yeah, though the SPC seems down on it, likely for many of the same reasons b.i. noted above. hgx didn't even include thunder wording for this area.

but i guess the svr disco should go in another thread. this one appears to be focused on snow.

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