cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 4:01 PM, BowMeHunter said: So we would want this to cut as far west and north to give a secondary a chance to pop in time? In theory yes, but the new op GFS says no secondary. A few of the 00z GFS ensembles indicated the potential, so we'll have to see what the 12z ensembles show. The new GFS does show a pretty strong wave of precip riding up the front Thanksgiving day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 4:33 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Oh well. Anything on the horizon TIm? Or does the gfs still suck through d16 Only out through 192 on NCEP...looks boring and warmish starting next Sunday. Will update when I see more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Thx for the help. Hopefully I have a new modem by tmrw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 4:33 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Oh well. Anything on the horizon TIm? Or does the gfs still suck through d16 There's this one storm around Day 10 that's been consistently showing up on the GFS. That one will probably be a warm one too if it does track further north given the shallow nature of the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Of course past 192, the GFS delivers. A little love for BowMe around hour 240...maybe a light rain to snow situation for YYZ with that system...relatively "cold" air drops down through the lower 48 thereafter...maybe a clipper coming down past hour 312. Typical GFS gibberish. Oh and the arctic hounds get released at hour 372. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 At least it looks cold in the extended -10 C temps across the midwest from about 276 until the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 4:19 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Any good news on the storm? Can't see the models. Looks like it could be snow showery and a tad windy friday and saturday for you. I'd take that for nov 27th.. Wouldn't be surprised with some light accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Reading the GFS verbatim says not a single snowflake in Illinois until Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 This looks interesting. 12z GFS Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Is this a 2nd system that developed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 5:26 PM, mnweather said: Is this a 2nd system that developed? Not quite sure but it sure looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Meh, until the OP GFS or EURO or any of the main models has it, I won't get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 5:19 PM, Tony said: This looks interesting. 12z GFS Ensemble Not really, just shows there is a large amount of ensemble spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 5:19 PM, Tony said: This looks interesting. 12z GFS Ensemble Eh, it's a smoothed image from all of the ensembles. But even in that scenario, all of the QPF west of the 0ºC line in S WI on south would fall before the "cold enough to snow" air arrived. But hey, I hope it's right with the QPF, as it has a nice bullseye on LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS looks fairly sold IMO. Slows the trough and makes it deeper, I think it is starting to catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 4:14 PM, Chicago WX said: DLH and that general area looks to cash according to the 12z GFS. Also gives central IN a big time soaker on Turkey Eve-Day. Just saw that. Maybe we're back in the game for significant rain then? I'm not gonna bite yet but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 I don't know if it's just me, but that's an insane amount of difference between the GFS ensembles. There's usually some disagreements between a few of them, but it seems like every one of them is completely different from each other. I had to keep checking to make sure the time stamps were the same on all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 5:42 PM, wxdudemike said: 12z GFS looks fairly sold IMO. Slows the trough and makes it deeper, I think it is starting to catch on. Are you trusting the 12Z ensembles or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GGEM with a 997mb low over the MN arrowhead at 12z Thursday...992mb at 0z Friday just NW of the 12z Thu position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 5:45 PM, Hoosier said: Just saw that. Maybe we're back in the game for significant rain then? I'm not gonna bite yet but something to watch. I'd say our chances are improving for something significant. GGEM seems to love us. But I'm not biting yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Difference between the 12z NAM/GFS at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 GEM says what cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 4 day Euro, 999, not even in the US. In Canada north of Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 6:17 PM, JoMo said: 4 day Euro, 999, not even in the US. In Canada north of Minnesota Yep, although it is double-barrel action with another 1002 low just west of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Not only that the cold air on the euro is gone... incredible, at least I can say I learned more about meteorology here following this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 On 11/21/2010 at 6:23 PM, Frivolousz21 said: incredible, at least I can say I learned more about meteorology here following this. Yeah, hope that the models show a storm along the Gulf coast in the long range so that by the time it gets 24 hours out, it may hit your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Well, the upside to poor model performance like this is eventually many of us could be pleasantly surprised as opposed to what the recent trend has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 12z GFS shows precip...but now it looks more cold rain then anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I could see a fairly good snow with this. Some 6"+ amounts certainly not out of the question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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