am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS has initialized. I think the obvious thing to focus on is the position and amplitude of the northern stream shortwave as it enters the MS/OH Valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS is a ton warmer across the South than the NAM at 24. No snow at all in DFW or Southern AR. That's not going to be a fun forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 N MS/AL also getting far less QPF from the GFS. ATL still getting the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Northern stream a little weaker at 42 in the GFS. Too early to really say anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS looking like it is going hold serve. It is considerably weaker than the NAM with the northern stream through 72. Surface low is sitting NE of HSE. There's hardly any difference from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Light to moderate snow across the Mid-Atlantic, low doesn't really start bombing out until it's farther north and it's hammering SNE by hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The QPF fields are a little different from 18z, but the low track is almost exactly the same. It's maybe 25 mi farther west, at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The QPF fields are a little different from 18z, but the low track is almost exactly the same. It's maybe 25 mi farther west, at most. does look a just a tad bit wetter after low is parrallel to delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Verbatim, here are some selected snowfall amounts. I'm sure someone else will refine this later. DFW 2-4 SHV T BHM 2-4 ATL T RDU 2-4 RIC 2-4 DCA 2-4 BWI 2-4 PHL 4-6 LGA 4-6 BDL 4-6 BOS 10-12 PWM 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Verbatim, here are some selected snowfall amounts. I'm sure someone else will refine this later. DFW 2-4 SHV T BHM 2-4 ATL T RIC 2-4 DCA 2-4 BWI 2-4 PHL 4-6 LGA 4-6 BDL 4-6 BOS 10-12 PWM 6-8 those amounts look reasonable, although i think 72 hrs out, still too early for amounts considering the lasty couple of east coast storms gave the models a hard time up to 24 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 those amounts look reasonable, although i think 72 hrs out, still too early for amounts considering the lasty couple of east coast storms gave the models a hard time up to 24 hrs out Yeah, that's why I only listed the big cities, just to give a general idea. No real reason to go into any more depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, that's why I only listed the big cities, just to give a general idea. No real reason to go into any more depth. i agree, models change so much run to run lol youd be changing amounts 4 time a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At H5, the GFS ops is an outlier compared to its ensemble members, but it doesn't appear to change much at the surface. The low tracks should be very interesting in about an hour. I'm kinda confused how the ensemble members are all less amplified, but somehow the low track is, if anything, farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z GFS Clown Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where is everyone at? Someone please tell us what the new Euro is doing since many of us can't access it until 2:30ish....I know some of you should be accessing it soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 00z GGEM..... @96 and 102... Definitely a move west from what I remember of the last two runs! Definitely old images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where is everyone at? Someone please tell us what the new Euro is doing since many of us can't access it until 2:30ish....I know some of you should be accessing it soon.... Does not initialize until 12:45 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Definitely old images The first one was from 00z sunday but they must not have updated the others when I looked...... here is 72 and 84 (im deleting the old post) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Dynamic cooling is really going to town over DFW at 24 in the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Heaviest snow band is farther north across TN in the Euro on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By 54, the ULL over the Rockies is deeper than the 12z Euro, but the ridging out in front is weaker. Cyclogenesis is occurring farther east near STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 60, the best diffluence is much farther east than at 12z. It's at CMH at 0z and was at IND at 12z. The coastal surface low is a smidge north from 12z off Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 thanks am19su for posting it in here so i dont have to go through all the regional threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There is almost no difference between the 0z Euro and the 0z GFS through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 At 72, the 0z Euro deepens the surface low a bit more than the GFS. Down to 1011 just SE of ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Definitely not as deep with the surface low on 0z compared to 12z. Looks like 1002mb 75 mi E of WWD. QPF widespread, but heaviest along the coast. Doesn't look like much p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run is going to end up almost exactly the same as the 0z GFS in terms of the low track. Probably going to have more QPF because the low is deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Actually from 84-96 it does slide east of the GFS position. That's why you shouldn't extrapolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The QPF fields are actually remarkably similar to the GFS, except across SNE, where the Euro dumps 1"+ of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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