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00z Model Discussion


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0z NAM isn't looking right at all, has many issues to pan out, when does the 06z run comes out?, i bet it goes back to what it was looking like before

Why? What issues? The northern stream shortwave is stronger this run. It leads to a longer lasting primary and a coastal track closer to the coast.

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The 00z NAM simply has the northern stream amplified more which causes the coastal to be tugged back closer to the coast. It appears to possibly hold on to and keep the primary a bit stronger & longer then the globals but I believe this is in line with some of the Global members means such as the ECM. The NAM makes sense with what it is showing...but it is the NAM in its longer range...Lets see what the globals do...but this is a good solid hit for the east coast ..perhaps mixing problems along immediate coast..

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This entire run is slow and amplified, which can be a bias of the NAM at its out hours. That said, this is exactly what you'd expect with a stronger northern stream, so although it's an operational outlier right now, it's probably not worth throwing it out completely. A few of the 12z Euro ensemble members showed a similar evolution.

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Again I respect Mets so much, but plz go into the mid lantic Phineas thread, and you will see, a lot of vets are saying this was not a good run. If that gets my posts deleted then I'll justt stay with that thread in future. Now I don't wonder why anymore the reason people dont post on these main model threads. Easy Barney Fife

I don't know why you think that I think this is a "good" run. I said it's an operational outlier, but that it's physically possible.

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This run sucks south of SNE. If you are south of central NJ, don't be fooled by the QPF. It is a fantasy. NYC mixes.

Just checked NAM MOS soundings--at no point does EWR go above 0C at any layer during the 84 hours. Closest it gets is -1.6C @ 900mb at 66 hrs. Same for PHL, KMIV goes above from 850mb on down at hour 78. KNYC never goes above -1.7C at any layer.

Again I respect Mets so much, but plz go into the mid lantic Phineas thread, and you will see, a lot of vets are saying this was not a good run. If that gets my posts deleted then I'll justt stay with that thread in future. Now I don't wonder why anymore the reason people dont post on these main model threads. Easy Barney Fife

Look where Phineas is from. He's from MD, and he's not happy about not getting a ton of snow this year.

Thank you sir. Goodness, I'm like Johnny positive storm guy 99% of the time. THIS RUN was not good....JUST talkin about this run

For your area it may not be good. For others it's quite good. And an outlier, so take it with a grain of salt.

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Just checked NAM MOS soundings--at no point does EWR go above 0C at any layer during the 84 hours. Closest it gets is -1.6C @ 900mb at 66 hrs. Same for PHL, KMIV goes above from 850mb on down at hour 78. KNYC never goes above -1.7C at any layer.

Look where Phineas is from. He's from MD, which hasn't gotten a lot of snow this year.

For your area it may not be good.

You think PHL is getting a snowstorm with the 850 low heading into Canada? :lol:

According to the NAM, we both get the same "snowstorm" at 84HR. Good luck!

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You think PHL is getting a snowstorm with the 850 low heading into Canada? :lol:

According to the NAM, we both get the same "snowstorm" at 84HR. Good luck!

You said "the run" sucks. The RUN provides that data. I was actually the first to question the placement of the H85 low--two days ago.

THIS, however, is what the model wants to do:

Hour 78: Look at where the H85 low is--this should suck for pretty much EVERYONE.

nam_850_078m.gif

Hour 84: Look where the closed contour is off the shore. It's like the coastal pops and heights crash in behind:

nam_850_084m.gif

I don't know if that's going to happen, but this run seems to think it will, and as the western outlier, I'm in for a moderate event in these parts.

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