jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam already out to hour 18 the high over southern canda is farther east then the 18z nam and 500 vort over texas is stronger and closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By tomorrow morning, heavy precip has broken out all across TX. SPC has a slight risk out for BRO. It'll be a question of how much instability can be generated aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Heavy snow and ice north of DFW along the Red River and across Southern Arkansas by 0z tomorrow. Should be interesting to see the p-type maps when they come out to see exactly when DFW changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lightning really picking up in TX now. SJT radar getting very colorful. This thing is coming together quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Snow piling up across the Northern Gulf Coast states by Monday morning. Total 12 hr QPF across N MS/AL is .75-1.00". I wouldn't be shocked if someone overperforms and gets a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 ATL gets screwed by WAA and daytime heating. 0C line north of the city by 18z on Monday. What will eventually become the coastal low is filling by Monday afternoon and cyclogenesis is beginning across the Central Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Amplification across the MS Valley occurring a bit farther west at H5 by 54 compared to the 18z GFS at 60. Might not mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 looks great for ohio at hour 66 as low looks to take aim on them soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, the northern stream amplification is clearly stronger on this run. The surface low off the SC coast is way weaker than the 18z GFS at 66, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lightning really picking up in TX now. SJT radar getting very colorful. This thing is coming together quickly! if u live down south good for you! If not..how much lightning there is now means little past Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Out to sea w main low PER THIS RUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Out to sea w main low PER THIS RUN Where are you seeing that? I'm out to 72 and the surface low is at HSE and the primary is at CMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM isn't looking right at all, has many issues to pan out, when does the 06z run comes out?, i bet it goes back to what it was looking like before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Out to sea w main low PER THIS RUN http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 there is hope for chicago this run through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z NAM isn't looking right at all, has many issues to pan out, when does the 06z run comes out?, i bet it goes back to what it was looking like before Why? What issues? The northern stream shortwave is stronger this run. It leads to a longer lasting primary and a coastal track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 78 NAM and is not out to sea but a coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like a good hit for interior New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 78 NAM and is not out to sea but a coastal hugger Storm underdone on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Out to sea w main low PER THIS RUN Next time, wait to see the map, please. It's so NOT out to sea that places like PHL, TTN, EWR may be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 78 NAM and is not out to sea but a coastal hugger doesnt look too bad, seems like its developing kinda late, i hope future runs show it developing farther south on coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Storm underdone on this run Either post something with meteorological insight or stop wishcasting. This is everyone's warning for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 84 looks like a great hit but fwiw 84hr nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 00z NAM simply has the northern stream amplified more which causes the coastal to be tugged back closer to the coast. It appears to possibly hold on to and keep the primary a bit stronger & longer then the globals but I believe this is in line with some of the Global members means such as the ECM. The NAM makes sense with what it is showing...but it is the NAM in its longer range...Lets see what the globals do...but this is a good solid hit for the east coast ..perhaps mixing problems along immediate coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This entire run is slow and amplified, which can be a bias of the NAM at its out hours. That said, this is exactly what you'd expect with a stronger northern stream, so although it's an operational outlier right now, it's probably not worth throwing it out completely. A few of the 12z Euro ensemble members showed a similar evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run sucks south of SNE. If you are south of central NJ, don't be fooled by the QPF. It is a fantasy. NYC mixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Again I respect Mets so much, but plz go into the mid lantic Phineas thread, and you will see, a lot of vets are saying this was not a good run. If that gets my posts deleted then I'll justt stay with that thread in future. Now I don't wonder why anymore the reason people dont post on these main model threads. Easy Barney Fife I don't know why you think that I think this is a "good" run. I said it's an operational outlier, but that it's physically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run sucks south of SNE. If you are south of central NJ, don't be fooled by the QPF. It is a fantasy. NYC mixes. Just checked NAM MOS soundings--at no point does EWR go above 0C at any layer during the 84 hours. Closest it gets is -1.6C @ 900mb at 66 hrs. Same for PHL, KMIV goes above from 850mb on down at hour 78. KNYC never goes above -1.7C at any layer. Again I respect Mets so much, but plz go into the mid lantic Phineas thread, and you will see, a lot of vets are saying this was not a good run. If that gets my posts deleted then I'll justt stay with that thread in future. Now I don't wonder why anymore the reason people dont post on these main model threads. Easy Barney Fife Look where Phineas is from. He's from MD, and he's not happy about not getting a ton of snow this year. Thank you sir. Goodness, I'm like Johnny positive storm guy 99% of the time. THIS RUN was not good....JUST talkin about this run For your area it may not be good. For others it's quite good. And an outlier, so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just checked NAM MOS soundings--at no point does EWR go above 0C at any layer during the 84 hours. Closest it gets is -1.6C @ 900mb at 66 hrs. Same for PHL, KMIV goes above from 850mb on down at hour 78. KNYC never goes above -1.7C at any layer. Look where Phineas is from. He's from MD, which hasn't gotten a lot of snow this year. For your area it may not be good. You think PHL is getting a snowstorm with the 850 low heading into Canada? According to the NAM, we both get the same "snowstorm" at 84HR. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You think PHL is getting a snowstorm with the 850 low heading into Canada? According to the NAM, we both get the same "snowstorm" at 84HR. Good luck! You said "the run" sucks. The RUN provides that data. I was actually the first to question the placement of the H85 low--two days ago. THIS, however, is what the model wants to do: Hour 78: Look at where the H85 low is--this should suck for pretty much EVERYONE. Hour 84: Look where the closed contour is off the shore. It's like the coastal pops and heights crash in behind: I don't know if that's going to happen, but this run seems to think it will, and as the western outlier, I'm in for a moderate event in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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