Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 4 NBC NY says no mixing....SIGNIFICANT SNOW for NY and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone have the precip totals for the forgotten people inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anyone have the precip totals for the forgotten people inland? gfs .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 4 NBC NY says no mixing....SIGNIFICANT SNOW for NY and NJ There is no model that has NYC and west getting anything but snow, why are you surprised? NAM is the severe west outlier and is still all snow. If you live NYC/1-95 West the worry is the coastal develops too late/east (a la GFS/UKIE/NOGAPS) and the biggest snows are northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Honestly, who cares what they say? Like they know any better than any of us what the heck is going to happen 3 days from now. I mean seriously? Channel 4 NBC NY says no mixing....SIGNIFICANT SNOW for NY and NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You don't want to know. You would probably be in the .35 range give or take. Anyone have the precip totals for the forgotten people inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM looks like it held serve from 12z, maybe a tad east, but definately nothing like the NAM. GFS is so far on the western edge of the globals that have come out for 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't see how any of these news channels are saying "no mixing" and saying where the heaviest snow will be at this point. Its Saturday Night and we're talking about a storm that will begin on Tuesday Night... Media and the quest for ratings, but I digress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will put my own opinion in here. When you take a look at the QPF as depicted the first thing to consider is that the GFS has had the .5 line very close to the tristate area. Accounting for model error and banding, this is still something that is probably significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 10 saying no mixing, significant snowstorm with SJ and DE seeing the most. careful he's the same guy that said at 6:30am Valentines Day 2007 that "warm air was surging in" & everyone would be changing to rain when in actuality temps had plummeted overnight into the low / mid 20's & the wind was persistent out of the NE absolutely one of the worst nowcast's I've seen locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't see how any of these news channels are saying "no mixing" and saying where the heaviest snow will be at this point. Its Saturday Night and we're talking about a storm that will begin on Tuesday Night... Media and the quest for ratings, but I digress There's no model showing mixing in NYC/Manhattan, and that's where they're primarily forecasting for. With 850s starting around -6C and a quick transfer to a secondary occurring, it'll be hard to send Central Park over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't complain so much about a change over in general, as how dangerous it makes getting around. Like I said, I would prefer an all rain even over to an ice event. (and obviously a snow event over either) How can people that just got buried from the last 2 storms, be complaining about a change over while others have little to no snow cover in more climo-favored areas? Unreal.. EDIT - Nevermind the comment about the 0z GFS.. I was looking at the 0z NAM .. damn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There is no model that has NYC and west getting anything but snow, why are you surprised? NAM is the severe west outlier and is still all snow. If you live NYC/1-95 West the worry is the coastal develops too late/east (a la GFS/UKIE/NOGAPS) and the biggest snows are northeast. What's surprising is, they're not just forecasting for points NYC and west. They also cover eastern coastal NJ and parts of LI....which are well within the realm of some sort of mixing on the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 There is no model that has NYC and west getting anything but snow, why are you surprised? NAM is the severe west outlier and is still all snow. If you live NYC/1-95 West the worry is the coastal develops too late/east (a la GFS/UKIE/NOGAPS) and the biggest snows are northeast. i heard people saying on here that coast NJ will get a lot of mixing/rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 10 saying no mixing, significant snowstorm with SJ and DE seeing the most. I'm too lazy (and too stupid) to compile the data, but I'd love to see a "normal snowfall from departures" map since last winter. I'd bet SNJ is the snowfall capital of the eastern US since 12/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i heard people saying on here that coast NJ will get a lot of mixing/rain... Coastal NJ might be, but the NBC 4 forecast tends to be centered on Manhattan. It looks as if Manhattan is in the clear on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 gfs ens mean is further west than the op...takes the low from hse to e li to over bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i heard people saying on here that coast NJ will get a lot of mixing/rain... This is a storm where the areas within 5 miles of the coast in Monmouth and Ocean counties will see way less than those 10-15 miles inland in those counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 careful he's the same guy that said at 6:30am Valentines Day 2007 that "warm air was surging in" & everyone would be changing to rain when in actuality temps had plummeted overnight into the low / mid 20's & the wind was persistent out of the NE absolutely one of the worst nowcast's I've seen locally I'm for sure taking it for what it's worth, I just wanted to post what was said. What I think is weird, there was no other solutions talked about. Just what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 but its also not a guarantee either still being 72 hours out and I agree they know nothing more than some of us on here do at this point There's no model showing mixing in NYC/Manhattan, and that's where they're primarily forecasting for. With 850s starting around -6C and a quick transfer to a secondary occurring, it'll be hard to send Central Park over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know guys. I have had people telling me out of the blue all week how we would get 2 feet plus, 12-18 inches and so on, people who know absolutely nothing about the weather. I was at the grocery store today and I overheard people talking today about a massive storm on Wednesday and when I told them we might only get 6 inches they were very surprised and said, that's it, well that's not a big deal. My experience in life has been when people talk this much about a storm, it usually doesn't pan out. It is when they don't know about it that they get hammered. I will be pleasantly surprised if this one turns out to be a big one. I just have a bad feeling about it and have consistently. The NOGAPS which was consistently showing a massive hit days ago has been trending with less and less of an event for a day now and the Canadian has done the same thing. The GFS is not far behind in this thinking. Maybe I will be pleasantly surprised, but to me this looks like a long shot for it being a big deal. And I would never, ever trust the NAM at this time frame. Maybe the Euro will pleasantly surprise us, but the rest of the models kind of look blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can someone post the GFS ENS mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 gfs ens mean is further west than the op...takes the low from hse to e li to over bos How does QPF generally look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can someone please explain to me why the ensembles continue to be west of the operational, please. gfs ens mean is further west than the op...takes the low from hse to e li to over bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm too lazy (and too stupid) to compile the data, but I'd love to see a "normal snowfall from departures" map since last winter. I'd bet SNJ is the snowfall capital of the eastern US since 12/09. Which is amazing, because before 2009, it was not the case whatsoever. I can't remember how many times a year, I would mix down here, and Philly, N and W would get hammered. What goes around comes around I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know guys. I have had people telling me out of the blue all week how we would get 2 feet plus, 12-18 inches and so on, people who know absolutely nothing about the weather. I was at the grocery store today and I overheard people talking today about a massive storm on Wednesday. My experience in life has been when people talk this much about a storm, it usually doesn't pan out. It is when they don't know about it that they get hammered. I will be pleasantly surprised if this one turns out to be a big one. I just have a bad feeling about it and have consistently. The NOGAPS which was consistently showing a massive hit days ago has been trending with less and less of an event for a day now and the Canadian has done the same thing. The GFS is not far behind in this thinking. Maybe I will be pleasantly surprised, but to me this looks like a long shot for it being a big deal. And I would never, ever trust the NAM at this time frame. Maybe the Euro will pleasantly surprise us, but the rest of the models kind of look blah. Until I found the setup before from 2000 that resembled this pattern strongly I was very much more concerned about this being a miss to the east then being too warm for the coast...to an extent I still feel that is the more likely of those 2 possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't know guys. I have had people telling me out of the blue all week how we would get 2 feet plus, 12-18 inches and so on, people who know absolutely nothing about the weather. I was at the grocery store today and I overheard people talking today about a massive storm on Wednesday. My experience in life has been when people talk this much about a storm, it usually doesn't pan out. It is when they don't know about it that they get hammered. I will be pleasantly surprised if this one turns out to be a big one. I just have a bad feeling about it and have consistently. The NOGAPS which was consistently showing a massive hit days ago has been trending with less and less of an event for a day now and the Canadian has done the same thing. The GFS is not far behind in this thinking. Maybe I will be pleasantly surprised, but to me this looks like a long shot for it being a big deal. And I would never, ever trust the NAM at this time frame. Maybe the Euro will pleasantly surprise us, but the rest of the models kind of look blah. Whoever was expecting 2 feet plus, is a moron, no offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is a storm where the areas within 5 miles of the coast in Monmouth and Ocean counties will see way less than those 10-15 miles inland in those counties. Stop rubbing it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 gfs ens mean is further west than the op...takes the low from hse to e li to over bos Sounds like an excellent solution to me!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How does QPF generally look like? .75 for the NYC metro area and points north and east including LI. .5 for most of NJ except for far east areas e.g. Hudson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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