nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The deepening of the coastal low isn't a huge concern of mine-it will likely deepen fast as the dynamics catch up to it, and the GFS is probably still lagging behind in that department. My main concern is the primary dying off soon enough and the coastal taking over and staying offshore. The people that stay all snow, at least up here where the low should be deepening rapidly, should get slammed for a good 12 hours or so. I think the 0z GFS should quiet most people's worries about changing over; the storm looks to develop a CCB relatively quickly and both 850s and 2m temps stay cold enough for an all snow event for NYC. NAM is probably on crack at 84 hours as it's beyond the range of its skill, and most global models have the storm being further east and colder than the NAM, which has basically been an outlier with the track so tight to the coast from the start. There might be a little bit of sleet mixed in for Long Island, but this is the type of storm that can easily trend colder if the low closes off a bit faster and better dynamics ensue. I'm obviously not worried here in Westchester, but temperatures are probably a minor concern for most of the area given that we start the storm with 850s around -6C. As soon as the CCB gets going, we're going to see some good totals even if the heaviest snow is over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 you have mixing issues as well as central and eastern li... This is not a setup for the NJ coast, GFS, NAM, Euro whatever...any event generally where a primary low is involved often causes too close a secondary track to the coast for those areas which causes a NE or ENE wind and not NNE, so the BL is often warmed at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 tombo or earthlight, is the GFS indicating 12.5" like the NAM for ABE and is banding still an issue? no, your qpf is only .25-.5..prob 4-7 with some ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is not a setup for the NJ coast, GFS, NAM, Euro whatever...any event generally where a primary low is involved often causes too close a secondary track to the coast for those areas which causes a NE or ENE wind and not NNE, so the BL is often warmed at the very least. yup there is a pesky warm wedge around 925mb that changes ppl over from dover to milville to belmar to central li east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 no, your qpf is only .25-.5..prob 4-7 with some ratios thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is not a setup for the NJ coast, GFS, NAM, Euro whatever...any event generally where a primary low is involved often causes too close a secondary track to the coast for those areas which causes a NE or ENE wind and not NNE, so the BL is often warmed at the very least. GFS 2m temperatures are marginal for the NJ Coast but not terrible...that's probably a 34F snow for anyone who doesn't live right on the beach: Winds look to be E/ENE which is usually a bad sign for those right on the Atlantic, but of course it's been an exceedingly cold winter so coastal SSTs are below average for early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is not a setup for the NJ coast, GFS, NAM, Euro whatever...any event generally where a primary low is involved often causes too close a secondary track to the coast for those areas which causes a NE or ENE wind and not NNE, so the BL is often warmed at the very least. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is not a setup for the NJ coast, GFS, NAM, Euro whatever...any event generally where a primary low is involved often causes too close a secondary track to the coast for those areas which causes a NE or ENE wind and not NNE, so the BL is often warmed at the very least. I don't think the primary will be that far north, not to mention the primary is very weak regardless. I think we'll be fine. The blocking and confluence will save us, the primary will die faster and everything will work out perfectly, just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The GFS does keep surface temps fairly mild. EWR is at 33 around 06z wednesday. I'd imagine the shore areas south of Monmouth and over to LI will have mixing issues. This is definitely looking like a situation where N&W fairs much better This is not a setup for the NJ coast, GFS, NAM, Euro whatever...any event generally where a primary low is involved often causes too close a secondary track to the coast for those areas which causes a NE or ENE wind and not NNE, so the BL is often warmed at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yup there is a pesky warm wedge around 925mb that changes ppl over from dover to milville to belmar to central li east Yes, the best picture describes a thousand words is see what happened at Belmar on 12/5/03 and compare it to what occurred at JFK or Staten Island....that epitomizes these sort of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think the 0z GFS should quiet most people's worries about changing over; the storm looks to develop a CCB relatively quickly and both 850s and 2m temps stay cold enough for an all snow event for NYC. NAM is probably on crack at 84 hours as it's beyond the range of its skill, and most global models have the storm being further east and colder than the NAM, which has basically been an outlier with the track so tight to the coast from the start. There might be a little bit of sleet mixed in for Long Island, but this is the type of storm that can easily trend colder if the low closes off a bit faster and better dynamics ensue. I'm obviously not worried here in Westchester, but temperatures are probably a minor concern for most of the area given that we start the storm with 850s around -6C. As soon as the CCB gets going, we're going to see some good totals even if the heaviest snow is over New England. Good post, strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The CCB should be all snow...here's the JFK sounding at 84 hours on the 0z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yup there is a pesky warm wedge around 925mb that changes ppl over from dover to milville to belmar to central li east Probably due to the coastal not strengthening fast enough. If it strengthened a little faster, the cold air would rush in faster and any mixing concerns would be gone. But I agree, the situation IMBY and anywhere near the coasts is more dicey than 12/26 for sure, when there was no concern about a primary low and we only really had the coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good post, strongly agree. My biggest worry is that the low closes off too late for a MECS in NYC, depriving the area of heavy precipitation...not temperature issues! I do think chances are very high for a 4-8" snowfall with higher totals in the northeastern parts of NYC metro, but to get into MECS category we need the low to deepen faster, more as the ECM showed at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Probably due to the coastal not strengthening fast enough. If it strengthened a little faster, the cold air would rush in faster and any mixing concerns would be gone. But I agree, the situation IMBY and anywhere near the coasts is more dicey than 12/26 for sure, when there was no concern about a primary low and we only really had the coastal low. I do think the coastal with strengthen quicker than the GFS shows assuming it develops where the GFS indicates it does off the SC coast region....that primary will dissipate rapidly as the coastal is in an environment where its going to blow up...the NAM is very strung out and wishy washy with the coastal, hence why it never really fires...the GFS is simply not realizing what the Gulf Stream can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yes, the best picture describes a thousand words is see what happened at Belmar on 12/5/03 and compare it to what occurred at JFK or Staten Island....that epitomizes these sort of systems. That was an amazing gradient for sure. We were supposed to change over to rain after a quich inch or two, but we had snow all day and accumulated 8" by late evening. Belmar south mostly got soaked until the 6th. I would think that the preexisting cold air is more severe than the 12/5/03 storm though for this event. There's at least a semblance of a high sliding cold air down in advance of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How can people that just got buried from the last 2 storms, be complaining about a change over while others have little to no snow cover in more climo-favored areas? Unreal.. EDIT - Nevermind the comment about the 0z GFS.. I was looking at the 0z NAM .. damn it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My biggest worry is that the low closes off too late for a MECS in NYC, depriving the area of heavy precipitation...not temperature issues! I do think chances are very high for a 4-8" snowfall with higher totals in the northeastern parts of NYC metro, but to get into MECS category we need the low to deepen faster, more as the ECM showed at 12z. Also agree, I've been thinking this will probably be a SECS event for us due to the relative quick speed of the storm. Don't get me wrong, I'd be more than satisfied with that amount of snow, but we're going to need an H5 close off to occur faster for a MECS event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't think the primary will be that far north, not to mention the primary is very weak regardless. I think we'll be fine. The blocking and confluence will save us, the primary will die faster and everything will work out perfectly, just watch. ...and they all lived happily ever after...THE END. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 how is the rest of the gfs looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah he seems to think that every storm this winter has been forming late and blasting New England... I'm not sure if he realized that the blizzard formed down in the GOM and hit southern areas too...just was far enough offshore to miss DC/Balt..Im really not sure where hes getting at Is that not what's depicted here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 how is the rest of the gfs looking? Its setup at 150 hours is sickening...the block over AK is nuts...if we still had the Greenland block we'd have sub -25F air in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That was an amazing gradient for sure. We were supposed to change over to rain after a quich inch or two, but we had snow all day and accumulated 8" by late evening. Belmar south mostly got soaked until the 6th. I would think that the preexisting cold air is more severe than the 12/5/03 storm though for this event. There's at least a semblance of a high sliding cold air down in advance of the storm. Yeah that storm had a remarkable gradient in Monmouth County. I recorded 18" with the only thundersnow I've ever experienced with a storm, meanwhile Spring Lake 10-15 miles to my se had a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Also agree, I've been thinking this will probably be a SECS event for us due to the relative quick speed of the storm. Don't get me wrong, I'd be more than satisfied with that amount of snow, but we're going to need an H5 close off to occur faster for a MECS event. But almost by definition with this set up, closing off earlier will bring the sfc low farther west, introducing p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The nogaps is now a very flat solution. It has lost its strong coastal and looks very much like the ukmet at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Its setup at 150 hours is sickening...the block over AK is nuts...if we still had the Greenland block we'd have sub -25F air in the US as much as i would love to have that kind of cold, i think if that were to happen everything would be surpressed. Id rather take a moderately cold airmass that gives us storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 But almost by definition with this set up, closing off earlier will bring the sfc low farther west, introducing p-type issues. Yes, the problem with this event is we lack the overall ridge/trough amplitude that we saw at H5 w/ the Dec blizzard. The flow is more zonal across the CONUS, thus we're going to need to time the close off perfectly to keep the metro area all snow and reach 12"+ amounts. But if the transfer to the secondary low occurs quicker, which I believe is a distinct possibility, we'll have a much better shot at staying all snow w/ an earlier close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The nogaps is now a very flat solution. It has lost its strong coastal and looks very much like the ukmet at 12z. The NOGAPS being where it was would be another egg in the basket for those inland...often if the NOGAPS is west of the Euro, GEM, or GFS you need to note it since its typically progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Channel 10 saying no mixing, significant snowstorm with SJ and DE seeing the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The nogaps is now a very flat solution. It has lost its strong coastal and looks very much like the ukmet at 12z. Welcome back NOGAPS...we've been worried about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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