mranger48 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 <br>Actually, with the track so close...that's not an unreal possibility. It may be the only saving grace.<br><br><br>So everyone S and E of I95 is jumping ship b/c of what the NAM shows in it's long range? Guys, listen to Earthlight and Tombo. I don't post often but I have been around this board and Eastern for as long as they've been around. These 2 guys know their stuff. When they say the NAM is showing it's usually biases by holding onto the primary for too long and organizing the coastal too slow, i tend to put full belief into that notion....and will until proven otherwise. Relax, we still have the rest of tonights model suite to go, all of tomorrow and all of monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS looks more amplified with heights in the east. Better diffluent flow should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, you guys are creating a doomsday scenario based off one run on a model outside its best range. At least let the rest of the 0z play out before making any conclusions. Even than things could still change for the better or worse tomorrow as we get into that magical 48 hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS is also still very fast with the system coming up the coast...but slower than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, you guys are creating a doomsday scenario based off one run on a model outside its best range. At least let the rest of the 0z play out before making any conclusions. Even than things could still change for the better or worse tomorrow as we get into that magical 48 hr timeframe. Believe me, everyone will feel better if none of the other 00Z runs trend markedly in the NAM's direction....and I mean none...if the KMA even shows the NAM scenario the panic will be high still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 at hr 63 gfs has a sub 1020 low about 50 miles east of cape fear....has the other primary at sub 1020 but weaker south of cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, you guys are creating a doomsday scenario based off one run on a model outside its best range. At least let the rest of the 0z play out before making any conclusions. Even than things could still change for the better or worse tomorrow as we get into that magical 48 hr timeframe. The NAM is not assured to be the final verdict on the storm. I remain cautiously optimistic that it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS is also still very fast with the system coming up the coast...but slower than 18z. This is typical of the Memphis Low. The overruning precip comes in quicker- as the primary loses out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 75 has a sub 1012 low about 75-100 miles east of ocmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well the gfs is going to help lighten up the tensions in this thread, looks like the euro track hse to bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 75 has a sub 1012 low about 75-100 miles east of ocmd Deepen, doggonit...DEEPEN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Decent hit between 81-84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 well the gfs is going to help lighten up the tensions in this thread, looks like the euro track hse to bm How does precip. compare to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .5" QPF back to NYC at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Deepen, doggonit...DEEPEN! you need the h5 closed low to capture it sooner, does the samething as the euro. Its further north, and new england gets really hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The UVV's are actually really good between 78-84 hrs...but I am not surprised at the lower QPF values given the primary and the slower developing coastal on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How does precip. compare to the Euro? less precip. .25-.5 on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 you need the h5 closed low to capture it sooner, does the samething as the euro. Its further north, and new england gets really hammered. hr 72 on ncep does not look all that great.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 this is the best gfs run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 less precip. .25-.5 on gfs I'll take that with the decent track it is taking. It leaves room for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 H85 low closes off the coast at 84 hours....we need this to occur a few hours earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The deepening of the coastal low isn't a huge concern of mine-it will likely deepen fast as the dynamics catch up to it, and the GFS is probably still lagging behind in that department. My main concern is the primary dying off soon enough and the coastal taking over and staying offshore. The people that stay all snow, at least up here where the low should be deepening rapidly, should get slammed for a good 12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 this is the best gfs run yet agree ncep out to hr 90...look much improved!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If the GFS solution verifies the primary will likely die earlier than the GFS currently is modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here are the NCEP charts..pretty impressive look and as myself and a few others have said, it's just hours off from hammering the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How many times are you going to ask about IMBY what does the map say for the Jersey Shore-Monmouth County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what does the map say for the Jersey Shore-Monmouth County? 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what does the map say for the Jersey Shore-Monmouth County? you have mixing issues as well as central and eastern li... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what does the map say for the Jersey Shore-Monmouth County? .5 liquid equivalent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 tombo or earthlight, is the GFS indicating 12.5" like the NAM for ABE and is banding still an issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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