Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is ugly for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although NYC and PHL stay all snow, the margin for error in the soundings gets too close for comfort. LGA actually goes over to rain for a brief time as per bufkit. Atlantic City is in horrible shape e.g. at hour 78, the column from 800 mb to the surface is all above freezing. At 81 hours, the column from 825 mb to the surface is above freezing. At 84 hours, it cools sufficiently for snow. ISP is a driving rainstorm through 84 hours. thanks Don. when will your first thoughts be posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is ugly for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although NYC and PHL stay all snow, the margin for error in the soundings gets too close for comfort. LGA actually goes over to rain for a brief time as per bufkit. Atlantic City is in horrible shape e.g. at hour 78, the column from 800 mb to the surface is all above freezing. At 81 hours, the column from 825 mb to the surface is above freezing. At 84 hours, it cools sufficiently for snow. ISP is a driving rainstorm through 84 hours. Absolutely agree. This remains a very real possibility at this point in time. The WRF and SREF's and medium range ensembles all want to go further west with this system. I'm afraid many of us have to begin accepting the notion of a changeover to some degree from delmarva through interior SNJ into parts of long island for a spell. Like you mentioned Don...it may be downright ugly for some of us. I'm still hoping against hope it stays further offshore. I'll admit my confidence is not where it was though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A good forecaster once told me rarely in a storm that has ANY component that is more north of east than say 070...basically indicating you're dealing with a coastal and not a west-east clipper does ACY and NYC both see good snow or all snow...either one cashes in or the other completely misses, sees all rain, or most of the time changes to rain in the case of ACY...this is a classic storm where JFK may see mostly snow but central coastal NJ sees rain mixing in. I agree. I remain cautiously optimistic that the NAM is an outlier, but we'll see what the other guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what does it look like for the Jersey Shore?--say Monmouth County?? Anybody within 30-50 miles of the coastline, even with the NAM look as it is (with a dying primary and an explosively developing secondary off the NJ coastline with crashing heights behind) should be considered to be in trouble. As DonS said, PHL and NYC say all snow verbatim on this run, but that primary has to fall apart a lot faster than is depicted for that to become reality. I don't like that look, and Phineas' comment on the placement of the H85 low is very valid. I'm not sure how the NAM pops the closed center from it's placement at 78h to it's placement at 84h, but it does. It's not an ideal look by any means. It is however, the western outlier of the modeling. If others trend to this, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thanks Don. when will your first thoughts be posted? Probably tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm going to post a link to a setup evolution in January 2000 here which everyone should look at...it gives major support to the theory the NAM may be onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 True, and I am hoping this time as well, but the seasonal trend leans against us heavily. Not looking bad for interior regions missed by last two storms.. PPL should be rooting for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm going to post a link to a setup evolution in January 2000 here which everyone should look at...it gives major support to the theory the NAM may be onto something... We could just wait an hour or two and see what the rest of the 00z guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 when you say "in trouble" do u mean that we might get a lot of snow,,, or that it might rain?? thanks! Mix to rain. As Don said, ACY gets VERY warm. There's probably a good 6 hour period or more when ACY gets close to 40F at the surface and above freezing way up into the column.(as high as 800mb). That's rain. Ugly, plain, rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everybody go to the link below and follow the evolution from 1/28/00 to 1/31/00 both in the Plains/Midwest and East Coast...the #1 analog earlier today for the setup in the southern Plains was 1/28/00, notice the strong similarity to the pattern out there we will have in 2 days...notice how in that case indeed there was eventually a inland tracking secondary which formed over over NC and went due north into SE NY on 1/31...there was no big primary but there was the bowling ball type feature at 500 the nam shows this time...I don't think it will happen again, but there are some major similarities in the overall pattern over the CONUS...and it was a La Nina....and it followed a coastal days earlier...this time the track was different but the WATL setup is somewhat the same. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2000.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I will also say that the nam can pick up first on these trends occasionally even if it's the post 60hr range. I remember Valentines Day 2007 it was the first to show the more inland evolution that backed off of the big i95 snowstorm. It was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everybody go to the link below and follow the evolution from 1/28/00 to 1/31/00 both in the Plains/Midwest and East Coast...the #1 analog earlier today for the setup in the southern Plains was 1/28/00, notice the strong similarity to the pattern out there we will have in 2 days...notice how in that case indeed there was eventually a inland tracking secondary which formed over over NC and went due north into SE NY on 1/31...there was no big primary but there was the bowling ball type feature at 500 the nam shows this time...I don't think it will happen again, but there are some major similarities in the overall pattern over the CONUS...and it was a La Nina....and it followed a coastal days earlier...this time the track was different but the WATL setup is somewhat the same. http://www.meteo.psu.../NARR/2000.html I remember this snowstorm...was a fairly significant one back here with 10" falling at AVP. Of course like you said no big primary to screw things up. Was on SB Sunday (XXXIV), I remember being able to stay up the whole way for it (And seeing an incredible game to boot!) because we had a snow day the next day. We also get screwed here by the big primary on the 0z NAM, it robs us of QPF and what could be a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 True, and I am hoping this time as well, but the seasonal trend leans against us heavily. Great post. Seasonal and NAM trends point to a NE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anybody within 30-50 miles of the coastline, even with the NAM look as it is (with a dying primary and an explosively developing secondary off the NJ coastline with crashing heights behind) should be considered to be in trouble. As DonS said, PHL and NYC say all snow verbatim on this run, but that primary has to fall apart a lot faster than is depicted for that to become reality. I don't like that look, and Phineas' comment on the placement of the H85 low is very valid. I'm not sure how the NAM pops the closed center from it's placement at 78h to it's placement at 84h, but it does. It's not an ideal look by any means. It is however, the western outlier of the modeling. If others trend to this, look out. If this trend goes on- Lehigh Valley will gets its turn in the snow making business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Anybody within 30-50 miles of the coastline, even with the NAM look as it is (with a dying primary and an explosively developing secondary off the NJ coastline with crashing heights behind) should be considered to be in trouble. As DonS said, PHL and NYC say all snow verbatim on this run, but that primary has to fall apart a lot faster than is depicted for that to become reality. I don't like that look, and Phineas' comment on the placement of the H85 low is very valid. I'm not sure how the NAM pops the closed center from it's placement at 78h to it's placement at 84h, but it does. It's not an ideal look by any means. It is however, the western outlier of the modeling. If others trend to this, look out. I agree. Setups like these with the primary holding on and especially the closed 850mb low hanging on are notorious for being too cold especially in the mid levels at this range, and play catch up close in to the event. If the final outcome is much like the NAM, sleet will likely make it surprisingly far inland and the shore areas will be a driving rain after maybe a very quick thump snow to start. The NAM's not terribly far from this being snowier for more people, but that primary HAS to die off faster and the energy transfer sooner, and the low needs to stay offshore. Just because soundings may show snow currently on this run, they will almost certainly warm up in the future at 750-800mb if the primary hangs on like this. This in the end might not be very snowy (if this run were taken verbatim and again it's the Nam which is very unreliable at this juncture) outside of northernmost NJ/Poconos on north through the Hudson Valley and Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Mix to rain. As Don said, ACY gets VERY warm. There's probably a good 6 hour period or more when ACY gets close to 40F at the surface and above freezing way up into the column.(as high as 800mb). That's rain. Ugly, plain, rain. Maybe they would get dryslotted before too much rain falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Great post. Seasonal and NAM trends point to a NE hit. What seasonal trend are we talking about? Lol. I don't know of any seasonal trend arguing or pointing to a New England hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I agree. Setups like these with the primary holding on and especially the closed 850mb low hanging on are notorious for being too cold especially in the mid levels at this range, and play catch up close in to the event. If the final outcome is much like the NAM, sleet will likely make it surprisingly far inland and the shore areas will be a driving rain after maybe a very quick thump snow to start. The NAM's not terribly far from this being snowier for more people, but that primary HAS to die off faster and the energy transfer sooner, and the low needs to stay offshore. Just because soundings may show snow currently on this run, they will almost certainly warm up in the future at 750-800mb if the primary hangs on like this. This in the end might not be very snowy (if this run were taken verbatim and again it's the Nam which is very unreliable at this juncture) outside of northernmost NJ/Poconos on north through the Hudson Valley and Berkshires. great post. I've seen this happen many times in the Lehigh Valley. A snow storm of PINGS on the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everybody go to the link below and follow the evolution from 1/28/00 to 1/31/00 both in the Plains/Midwest and East Coast...the #1 analog earlier today for the setup in the southern Plains was 1/28/00, notice the strong similarity to the pattern out there we will have in 2 days...notice how in that case indeed there was eventually a inland tracking secondary which formed over over NC and went due north into SE NY on 1/31...there was no big primary but there was the bowling ball type feature at 500 the nam shows this time...I don't think it will happen again, but there are some major similarities in the overall pattern over the CONUS...and it was a La Nina....and it followed a coastal days earlier...this time the track was different but the WATL setup is somewhat the same. http://www.meteo.psu.../NARR/2000.html That storm was during the Superbowl between the Titans/Rams I believe. It was in Atlanta where they had an icestorm. Meanwhile in Holmdel we had 2" of wet snow that changed to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Maybe they would get dryslotted before too much rain falls. Actually, with the track so close...that's not an unreal possibility. It may be the only saving grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 great post. I've seen this happen many times in the Lehigh Valley. A snow storm of PINGS on the windows. In this type of setup, it's usually a little further north where the bleeding stops. I can't count how times over the years where just to my south would wind up with significantly less snow because of p-type issues. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 What seasonal trend are we talking about? Lol. I don't know of any seasonal trend arguing or pointing to a New England hit. Yeah he seems to think that every storm this winter has been forming late and blasting New England... I'm not sure if he realized that the blizzard formed down in the GOM and hit southern areas too...just was far enough offshore to miss DC/Balt..Im really not sure where hes getting at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We need NAM ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Classic, "North and West" scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah he seems to think that every storm this winter has been forming late and blasting New England... I'm not sure if he realized that the blizzard formed down in the GOM and hit southern areas too...just was far enough offshore to miss DC/Balt..Im really not sure where hes getting at Yeah, I was about to say. The "season" started less than a month ago, and the only big storm hammered this area and for the most part screwed New England as far as the big totals that were expected. Not sure what the general point was with his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why does everyone think that this will be the final solution to the storm it is bound to shift around a bit and a slight deviation the other way will bring people mostly back to snow. Just think it is way to early to be jumping off bridges yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That storm was during the Superbowl between the Titans/Rams I believe. It was in Atlanta where they had an icestorm. Meanwhile in Holmdel we had 2" of wet snow that changed to rain. Its a front end thumping potential event for coastal areas but there is not really a strong enough high in place for it...if there was, even if the NAM verified people on the coast could pick up 3-5 inches before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We need NAM ensembles Technically, we do...the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bufkit for a few locations (for the heck of it) 00z NAM RDG- 6.4" PHL- 3.8" ABE- 12.5" JFK- .1" HPN- 5.1" AVP- 5.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Why does everyone think that this will be the final solution to the storm it is bound to shift around a bit and a slight deviation the other way will bring people mostly back to snow. Just think it is way to early to be jumping off bridges yet. I'm new to this but my hunch is that the NAO is rising and the block up north is retreating which should make it easier to hug the coast or even inland. Just trying to apply what I have learned to this point. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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