Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hey John I always mean to ask you where you get these nam images from?? Really cool E-Wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 actually falls in line pretty well with the SREF, it just so happens that it too shouldn't be trusted so much in this range you can't help but wonder since the models have clearly trended toward this type of solution over the past day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not a glorified SW flow event...this is the furthest north any model has driven the primary. Wouldn't put my money on it. Good sign that even though it's developing it so far north...good snows are still falling as the coastal develops. I don't know - it may have signaled a trend for the rest of the 00Z suite, maybe not. At this time range, it probably doesn't really matter But this particular solution, especially with the primary gaining so much latitude smells of a "shallow layer of warm air at midlevels" scenario with the primary so far to the west... NYC might be a snow-sleet-slot-snow scenario with diminishing confidences as you go down that line. . p.s. driving through the back roads of W.Ct today on my way to the train was a surreal experience... felt like driving through Northern New England ... 15-18" of snowpack will do that to you. p.p.s. this winter is starting to remind me of a delayed 1996... I was a sophomore in HS that year with only The Weather Channel and local stations to track. I'm actually kind of thankful the internet wasn't widespread then or I'd have gotten zero work done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 E-Wall Well, I knew it was an ewall map, but that site is a giant maze with some fantastic maps that are hidden well. So wherever those close up nam images are on ewall I was wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 actually falls in line pretty well with the SREF, it just so happens that it too shouldn't be trusted so much in this range you can't help but wonder since the models have clearly trended toward this type of solution over the past day or so i don't know how much they trended. The nam is the furthest west. Ggem,gfs,euro,nogaps,ukie are no where near this depiction and all at 12z runs trended east or stayed the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, I knew it was an ewall map, but that site is a giant maze with some fantastic maps that are hidden well. So wherever those close up nam images are on ewall I was wondering http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/regions00z.html click wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM Snow output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 here is the clown map for the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM Snow output... that's a deceptive map since it includes current snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM Snow output... i wonder who drew that in, in NV and CA...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...regions00z.html click wrf Thank you very much. By the way how much does this nam run remind you guys of December 9th 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thank you very much. By the way how much does this nam run remind you guys of December 9th 2005 what happened on that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what happened on that date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Would you be so kind as to provide a link for this map? Thank you. NAM Snow output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Would you be so kind as to provide a link for this map? Thank you. here is the clown map for the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 here is the clown map for the 0z nam one with ratios makes it look a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what happened on that date? I forgot it snowed on that day. From Mt. Holly's page, here's the snowfall. It is showing the coasts getting nada and inland doing well -- but I think that I-95 does better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Would you be so kind as to provide a link for this map? Thank you. Grabbed it off of the Mid Atlantic thread about this storm...not sure of the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what happened on that date? Big 6-10" thump for this area..but perhaps you would like to ask this question for a the New England folks... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2005/us1209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Would you be so kind as to provide a link for this map? Thank you. http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is the Earl Barker link: http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm It should be self explanatory from there, if not let me know. I use the Kuchera snow algorithm, because I'm pretty sure it accounts for variable ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I forgot it snowed on that day. From Mt. Holly's page, here's the snowfall. It is showing the coasts getting nada and inland doing well -- but I think that I-95 does better than this. For comparison--from Ray's archive Hour 78 NAM H85: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not looking bad for interior regions missed by last two storms.. PPL should be rooting for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is ugly for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although NYC and PHL stay all snow, the margin for error in the soundings gets too close for comfort. LGA actually goes over to rain for a brief time as per bufkit. Atlantic City is in horrible shape e.g. at hour 78, the column from 800 mb to the surface is all above freezing. At 81 hours, the column from 825 mb to the surface is above freezing. At 84 hours, it cools sufficiently for snow. ISP is a driving rainstorm through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can you provide a link? Great map. one with ratios makes it look a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well in the past 2 years AC has had a decades worth of snow so I would expect them to revert back to their norm of changing to rain in these situations The NAM is ugly for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although NYC and PHL stay all snow, the margin for error in the soundings gets too close for comfort. LGA actually goes over to rain for a brief time as per bufkit. Atlantic City is in horrible shape e.g. at hour 78, the column from 800 mb to the surface is all above freezing. At 81 hours, the column from 825 mb to the surface is above freezing. At 84 hours, it cools sufficiently for snow. ISP is a driving rainstorm through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is ugly for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although NYC and PHL stay all snow, the margin for error in the soundings gets too close for comfort. LGA actually goes over to rain for a brief time as per bufkit. Atlantic City is in horrible shape e.g. at hour 78, the column from 800 mb to the surface is all above freezing. At 81 hours, the column from 825 mb to the surface is above freezing. At 84 hours, it cools sufficiently for snow. ISP is a driving rainstorm through 84 hours. A good forecaster once told me rarely in a storm that has ANY component that is more north of east than say 070...basically indicating you're dealing with a coastal and not a west-east clipper does ACY and NYC both see good snow or all snow...either one cashes in or the other completely misses, sees all rain, or most of the time changes to rain in the case of ACY...this is a classic storm where JFK may see mostly snow but central coastal NJ sees rain mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thank you. http://wxcaster.com/...al_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thank you. Here is the Earl Barker link: http://www.wxcaster....models_main.htm It should be self explanatory from there, if not let me know. I use the Kuchera snow algorithm, because I'm pretty sure it accounts for variable ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The NAM is ugly for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Although NYC and PHL stay all snow, the margin for error in the soundings gets too close for comfort. LGA actually goes over to rain for a brief time as per bufkit. Atlantic City is in horrible shape e.g. at hour 78, the column from 800 mb to the surface is all above freezing. At 81 hours, the column from 825 mb to the surface is above freezing. At 84 hours, it cools sufficiently for snow. ISP is a driving rainstorm through 84 hours. Don, So, in other words, an average winter storm historically speaking. Rain on the coast, dicey in the cities, and snow further back more likely. Not saying that that will happen. After all, we are talking the NAM 84 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.