tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 li and nyc getting smacked at hr 84, but long island deff has some mixing issues on this run it looks like, 925mb temps are above 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Finally gets its act together at 81hrs..0 850s hugging the coast and moderate precipitation across the entire area. Good news. Though it looks too slow in developing to be huge for PA, our moderate event is still being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's ridiculously slow...the NAM has a terrible slow bias in this range, too. Dynamics look good, though..so it should catch up in a few frames. That primary is strong though. Very slow, but I would not want that energry to being so strong so far west that with the max PVA well away from the coast. Once the secondary gets going many of us may see rain on LI IF this solution has any chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0.50-0.75" QPF for NJ..NYC..SW CT..SE NY at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 24 hr QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Definitely a slow bias with the NAM, however, it is a slower evolution here because it is closed off at 500mb almost the whole way, related to the stronger primary. Its also very slow from the get go, you see it bleed over into its hi res brethren and even the hrrr, allof them are nearly 1-3hrs too slow out of the gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The blocking in Canada is much too strong to allow this to cut through the Lakes. In fact, I highly doubt we'll see the primary low make it as far north as the NAM indicates. These synoptic set-ups w/ big time severe AO blocking usually don't fail in terms of predicting how future model runs will trend. The energy transfer from primary to secondary low should gradually be depicted further south on the NAM, as we approach the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I have a max qpf of .699 through 84 hrs in about Morris County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 li and nyc getting smacked at hr 84, but long island deff has some mixing issues on this run it looks like, 925mb temps are above 0 ncep show hr 78 is starts to thump in Se PA...don't want to say it , but Dt's first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM looks like a glorified southwest flow event. Do not want. Chill, it's the Nam and we all know the Nam is horrible in this time range. I doubt the primary will be as strong or long lasting as depicted. I don't know why anyone would freak out over the Nam at 78-84 hours. Take a day off, like seriously people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 li and nyc getting smacked at hr 84, but long island deff has some mixing issues on this run it looks like, 925mb temps are above 0 Definitely do per this run.. fierce WAA at 850mb even though the zero line is south its warmer below and may not stay below 0 at 850 mb if you extrap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WeatherMadness Henry Margusity Nam Simulated radar for Tuesday night... No School Wednesday Kiddies!! http://fb.me/SvmWbSEW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Not a glorified SW flow event...this is the furthest north any model has driven the primary. Wouldn't put my money on it. Good sign that even though it's developing it so far north...good snows are still falling as the coastal develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As depicted this is an NYC and NW suburbs favored hit... Not sure I buy the slowness of the NAM though.. Will be interesting to see how strong the northern energy is on the rest of the 0Z guidance.. .Question - Does anybody know if the Pac NW energy would be better sampled in the 0Z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 li and nyc getting smacked at hr 84, but long island deff has some mixing issues on this run it looks like, 925mb temps are above 0 Long Island needs the low to go at least SE of Montauk. If it's over or west of there, mixing likely even gets into NYC. The strong primary doesn't help matters, and the low is going to really have to bomb out fast to preserve an all snow event on this run. I'd like the northern stream to be less amplified also, because a more amplified northern stream only empowers the primary in the Ohio Valley and the warm air ahead of it. But luckily, it's the NAM at 60-84 hours and it has little support. Pretty much every other model thinks it's east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As depicted this is an NYC and NW suburbs favored hit... Not sure I buy the slowness of the NAM though.. Will be interesting to see how strong the northern energy is on the rest of the 0Z guidance.. .Question - Does anybody know if the Pac NW energy would be better sampled in the 0Z suite? read reports about possible samples...overall NAM at hr 84...nice to review and compare good htt northern De up through NYC..this storm may have legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Very slow, but I would not want that energry to being so strong so far west that with the max PVA well away from the coast. Once the secondary gets going many of us may see rain on LI IF this solution has any chance of verifying That fcst 850mb position is not good for snow, granted its a science fiction result, but from a purest point of view its way way too far northwest to keep a ptype as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As depicted this is an NYC and NW suburbs favored hit... Not sure I buy the slowness of the NAM though.. Will be interesting to see how strong the northern energy is on the rest of the 0Z guidance.. .Question - Does anybody know if the Pac NW energy would be better sampled in the 0Z suite? Wow, 84 goes nuts around the metro area. Looks like you would only tack on another 1" or so for NE NJ/NYC looking at sim radar so your looking at about 6-10" for NYC C/N NJ out of this run. Mixing issues would be a concern for Long Island and coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As depicted this is an NYC and NW suburbs favored hit... Not sure I buy the slowness of the NAM though.. Will be interesting to see how strong the northern energy is on the rest of the 0Z guidance.. .Question - Does anybody know if the Pac NW energy would be better sampled in the 0Z suite? The early close off at H5 in the OH valley looks suspect. There's nothing I see in the upper pattern that would force the primary low to prematurely amplify/get captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This late coastal development should not shock any proponents of seasonal trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know it's the 0z NAM, but this is not a pretty H85 map if you like snow and live along and east of I-95. An overpowering H85 low over Lake Erie =/= heavy snow for NYC/PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Chill, it's the Nam and we all know the Nam is horrible in this time range. I doubt the primary will be as strong or long lasting as depicted. These primaries that jump to the coast ALWAYS have to be watched for that. They can crush a lot of people's hopes east of them if they stay strong just a few hours longer than expected. 2/14/07 was just such a disaster for a lot of the interior Northeast because of the coastal not developing until it was too late. And it wasn't even modeled to last that long the night before. The confluence over eastern Canada and New England is key here. If it dies off or moves out faster than expected now, it robs us of our storm and probably makes it an interior event mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Awesome maps on the NAM tonight in the city and immediate burbs as well as west of there. Dynamic cooling taking over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't give much attn to the nam until the whole event is under 60 hrs. The nam always pulls this card. How many times this year it showed snow events at hrs 72-84 when every other model doesn't.Then once it gets within respectable range it backs off. Its like the boy who cried wolf. Could it be right, sure. But i would wait till its under 60 hrs before worrying or unless other models trend to this, which they havent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Awesome maps on the NAM tonight in the city and immediate burbs as well as west of there. Dynamic cooling taking over here. earthlight..this run hits the immediate PHL area ahard too..but hamaers central NJ through CT. amazing run..would love to see further panels..coastal NE would snookied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, 84 goes nuts around the metro area. Looks like you would only tack on another 1" or so for NE NJ/NYC looking at sim radar so your looking at about 6-10" for NYC C/N NJ out of this run. Mixing issues would be a concern for Long Island and coastal NJ. Those amounts may be high per what the NAM is depicting at 925 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wouldn't give much attn to the nam until the whole event is under 60 hrs. The nam always pulls this card. How many times this year it showed snow events at hrs 72-84 when every other model doesn't.Then once it gets within respectable range it backs off. Its like the boy who cried wolf. Could it be right, sure. But i would wait till its under 60 hrs before worrying or unless other models trend to this, which they havent. This is a very good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 why did the nws(or whoever you guys get the model discussions from) say not to use the nam ? is this why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Awesome maps on the NAM tonight in the city and immediate burbs as well as west of there. Dynamic cooling taking over here. Hey John I always mean to ask you where you get these nam images from?? Really cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 why did the nws(or whoever you guys get the model discussions from) say not to use the nam ? is this why? Well utilizing the NAM's solution out at 84hrs for a forecast is akin to using the GFS at 184hrs. It's designed to be most accurate in the short term, generally within 48 hours. That's not to say tonight's solution isn't impossible, it's just highly unlikely based upon the pattern regime we have in place and other model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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