famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I somehow am getting the impressions that people think that 12 plus snowfalls are the norm and want them on all storms. Before this recent 10 year period, we got those storms once a decade twice if lucky. Well now that everyone measures in their own backyards instead of at airports, they're more normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's a better look at the 15z SREF's...very impressive in developing the CCB earlier over our area. Hopefully we can continue this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think i can clear up why the public feels this will be a larger or stronger storm and accumulate to 30 inches. Most local forecasters have been saying "significant", 'large" and "substantial" in describing the storm potential, and not placing amounts out yet. You take what happened on christmas weekend, and place that in the mind of the public, who may not be familiar with the dynamics, and this is what they see. It would be considered illogical reasoning here as someone might say since it happened, it will happen again, however, many people do not even know what the models are, and how they work. The NWS should do some public outreach and educate people in this, perhaps it could be included in the educational programs, or required at colleges? OT, but budget cuts are only going to reduce outreach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The 15z SREF's are impressive imo because almost all of them have a closed off 5h low thru the run where gfs is the latest in the game (comparing sref's, gfs, euro, nam) in developing it... around 03z WED for todays 00,06,12z runs and 00z Wed with the new 18z. The NAM runs all develop it much sooner around 21z Tues resulting in a faster amped solution in time to get the developing heavy bands over the area as the secondary starts to crank off DEL. ANother interesting thing I noticed was that only the gfs out of the sref's, gfs, euro and nam was taking the primary low EAST of Lake Erie. The sref's and todays NAM runs are WEST or over it... obviously this forces the secondary closer to the coast. So I think things are looking good for a significant to possible major storm for PHL/NJ/NYC/LI/SNE. For major snows in NYC/NJ/LI area I always look for a good block/50-50 low, h5 low and timing of closure is major imo. This one will be close. Best shot at 12"+ is def SNE and LI.. and NJ coast right now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Best shot at 12"+ is def SNE and LI.. and NJ coast right now imo. Pretty much agree, although let's hope we don't get too much warm air or a dryslot sucked in. It's going to be close for coastal NJ, NYC and LI, but the odds seem to be favoring a significant snowfall, yet again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I see it in this manner, the models are converging on giving many of us a light to moderate snowfall, well giving us accumulating snow. Whether it be 2-5", I'll be optimistic no matter what, but if the CCB develops earlier and gives us a moderate to heavy snowfall, it's something that we have to take as a definite possibility. Just a tricky set-up these snow events are seeming to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody have a link to the KMA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody have a link to the KMA ? http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/weather/images/forecastchart.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anybody have a link to the KMA ? See my post here and for other model links: The KMA hasn't put out Northern Hemisphere maps that include the US for a while now. Don't know what's going on with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://web.kma.go.kr...recastchart.jsp Thank you so much, thats one thats a real pain to find in google searches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 See my post here and for other model links: http://www.americanw...730#entry255730 The KMA hasn't put out Northern Hemisphere maps that include the US for a while now. Don't know what's going on with it. Sorry didn't see those posts earlier, and yeah I see that the US is no longer an option, a shame I remember using it for the VD and St Patty day storms in 07 with some success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The Mt Holly QPF grids are only indicating 2-3" for the city and 3-5" for South Jersey. Interesting. Hopefully Tony drops by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The Mt Holly QPF grids are only indicating 2-3" for the city and 3-5" for South Jersey. Interesting. Hopefully Tony drops by tonight. Seems a little low.. even if we wind up with .25-.50 QPF that should be 3-6" in and around Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Seems a little low.. even if we wind up with .25-.50 QPF that should be 3-6" in and around Philly. If I was reading it right, the grids only have about .2" total for Philly and .3" for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's a better look at the 15z SREF's...very impressive in developing the CCB earlier over our area. Hopefully we can continue this trend. Looks like 3 or 4 members have the dreaded ping ping for a good chunck of Jersey Not too worried this winters been awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The Mt Holly QPF grids are only indicating 2-3" for the city and 3-5" for South Jersey. Interesting. Hopefully Tony drops by tonight. I am surprised how far west they are calling for mixing issues at this time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am surprised how far west they are calling for mixing issues at this time.. It sounded like Tony was concerned about freezing drizzle with warm cloud top temps according to the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If I was reading it right, the grids only have about .2" total for Philly and .3" for the coast. I thought they would be more agressive based on AFD...either that or just keep it generalities til 00z suite comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I thought they would be more agressive based on AFD...either that or just keep it generalities til 00z suite comes out This is what I was looking at... but I could be misinterpreting it, too. http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/phi.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am surprised how far west they are calling for mixing issues at this time.. I can't really imagine PHL mixing as the coastal transfer looks to be well south of them, and a cold airmass is in place...they're pretty far inland to deal with rain/sleet in this system. I'd just be worried down there that the CCB doesn't blossom quickly enough to deal a big hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 12z 6hr NAM qpf link to current radar deep south radar current water vapor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I can't really imagine PHL mixing as the coastal transfer looks to be well south of them, and a cold airmass is in place...they're pretty far inland to deal with rain/sleet in this system. I'd just be worried down there that the CCB doesn't blossom quickly enough to deal a big hit there. Meh I guess I am guilty of IMBYism here...fact that my county/zone is oriented towards the SE I can see how SE half of my zone could mix...closer to the city zones don't depict mix...seems like precip amounts are conservatively shaded toward verbatim GFS/Euro blend shaded a bit more towards GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 clearly the southern wave is much stronger, holding together... arent most models showing the southern wave being crushed/sheared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Speaking of international models the 12Z GME (German) is a Cape May, Montauk, to Cape Cod canal storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 clearly the southern wave is much stronger, holding together... arent most models showing the southern wave being crushed/sheared? Not yet. By tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmmmm.......I'm getting 0.48 QPF for Philly based off of those maps: On Tuesday, 0.01 QPF in the time interval from 7 AM to 1 PM Tuesday, 0.05 QPF from 1 PM to 7 PM Tuesday, 0.29 QPF from 7 PM to 1 AM Wednesday, 0.12 QPF from 1 AM to 7 AM Wednesday, and 0.01 QPF from 7 AM to 1 PM Wednesday. For Atlantic City, using the same method gives a total of 0.54 QPF. If I was reading it right, the grids only have about .2" total for Philly and .3" for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lot of snow down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Not yet. By tomorrow afternoon. Yeah...it was supposed to look impressive at this point...if it cruises into Ga/SC with decent qpf and a little convection, that to me would stoke some of earlier speculation of the wetter 12z nam being on to something.... edit: IT being the surface low/redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 New SREF's are out...and they are great. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hmmmm.......I'm getting 0.48 QPF for Philly based off of those maps: On Tuesday, 0.01 QPF in the time interval from 7 AM to 1 PM Tuesday, 0.05 QPF from 1 PM to 7 PM Tuesday, 0.29 QPF from 7 PM to 1 AM Wednesday, 0.12 QPF from 1 AM to 7 AM Wednesday, and 0.01 QPF from 7 AM to 1 PM Wednesday. For Atlantic City, using the same method gives a total of 0.54 QPF. Ah, ok. That's why I posted it, because I wanted someone to check me, because it seemed really low. For whatever reason, I never saw the 0.29 time frame. That makes a lot more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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