ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ensemble mean is not more then operational. Don't know where the other site got that from. Ensemble mean is almost exactly like operational. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep72084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 AHH, not exactly so...what about when the low becomes vertically stacked?? For this particular storm, it doesn't get vertically stacked until it is well past our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ensemble mean is not more then operational. Don't know where the other site got that from. Ensemble mean is almost exactly like operational. http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72084.gif thats the ggem esembles do you have the gfs ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thats the ggem esembles do you have the gfs ensembles? GFS ensemble mean has the same QPF as the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro ensemble mean precip has .50"-.75 for all of jersey, .75"-1" for NYC and 1"+ for eastern LI. Philly is close to .50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thats the ggem esembles do you have the gfs ensembles? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like our typical fast moving 6-12" noreaster with locally higher amounts in banding. I flew back today to acy from FL and people on the plane mentioned they heard we were getting 30" what are they smoking no model currently supports those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72084.gif Good idea to just post links to make it easier on members who are browsing on their phones. Agreed, looks similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 18z GFS closes off the UL a bit faster than 12z did. If 0z is a little faster than18z, than I think that 0z will feature a stronger and closer to the coast solution. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think i can clear up why the public feels this will be a larger or stronger storm and accumulate to 30 inches. Most local forecasters have been saying "significant", 'large" and "substantial" in describing the storm potential, and not placing amounts out yet. You take what happened on christmas weekend, and place that in the mind of the public, who may not be familiar with the dynamics, and this is what they see. It would be considered illogical reasoning here as someone might say since it happened, it will happen again, however, many people do not even know what the models are, and how they work. The NWS should do some public outreach and educate people in this, perhaps it could be included in the educational programs, or required at colleges? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 From Albany Discussion: THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE. WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+ PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 18z GFS is much closer to developing the CCB towards the entire area. It's weakened the primary and moved the coastal low further northwest. This is a result of the earlier closed upper level low and more amplification ahead of the feature. No doubt about it and make no mistake, tonight's 00z model runs are going to be huge for this system. A whole bunch of questions should be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just had to quote this one for posterity. Mods - Sorry to go off topic while in storm mode but I didn't want to lose this. From Albany Discussion: GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 18z GFS is much closer to developing the CCB towards the entire area. It's weakened the primary and moved the coastal low further northwest. This is a result of the earlier closed upper level low and more amplification ahead of the feature. No doubt about it and make no mistake, tonight's 00z model runs are going to be huge for this system. A whole bunch of questions should be answered. Yeah,the GFS and Euro will probably be closer by 0Z and certainly by 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I really don't think we can nail down anything final this soon in the game, even after tonight's 0z runs. All winter storms, especially this winter, show us how silly it is to make conclusions this far out. The Boxing Day storm had crazy details changed 24 hrs before the thing hit. All I care about is the fact that a storm will occur with great potential for good snows. How much (or how little) is still way too soon to finalize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 0z is huge. I think we can" lock it in" one way or the other after the 0z runs since we are getting into the range where the models don't fluctuate much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The 18z GFS is much closer to developing the CCB towards the entire area. It's weakened the primary and moved the coastal low further northwest. This is a result of the earlier closed upper level low and more amplification ahead of the feature. No doubt about it and make no mistake, tonight's 00z model runs are going to be huge for this system. A whole bunch of questions should be answered. I wonder if they launched extra balloons today at 12z.. This was mentioned yesterday in AFD's, and if so, that info should be in the 00z runs comming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I somehow am getting the impressions that people think that 12 plus snowfalls are the norm and want them on all storms. Before this recent 10 year period, we got those storms once a decade twice if lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like our typical fast moving 6-12" noreaster with locally higher amounts in banding. I flew back today to acy from FL and people on the plane mentioned they heard we were getting 30" what are they smoking no model currently supports those totals there seems to be some media hype machine that pushed this system right after the Christmas Day storm, I have never heard so many people query me about this storm so far in advance like last week before the Fri/Sat systems hit. Its going to be a pretty significant hit for all but we are talking crippling like that last storm that had such a long period of 2-3 inch an hour snowfall rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC 3 day probability map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wonder if they launched extra balloons today at 12z.. This was mentioned yesterday in AFD's, and if so, that info should be in the 00z runs comming up. Ummm...what? Special soundings only happen during off hours, such as 18z. Also, if they were to release these "extra balloons" at 12z, the data would be used for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Australian showing a decent hit inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Australian showing a decent hit inside the benchmark. I can sleep well now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Australian showing a decent hit inside the benchmark. I've never in my life seen this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Australian showing a decent hit inside the benchmark. Okay. Let me get my microscope to exam the sol'n. *Waits for Toms River guy to ask for IMBY qpf.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Between this and the JMA, it's a lock... I can sleep well now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 57 mod snow for phl-nyc all the way back to pitt..... hr 60 heavy snow for phl and southern nj...mod snow in nyc I like Tombo's scheme of less than 0.10" = light snow, 0.10-0.25" = light-mod, 0.25-0.50" = mod snow, 0.50-0.75" = mod-heavy snow, 0.75+ = heavy snow. Its more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like Tombo's scheme of less than 0.10" = light snow, 0.10-0.25" = light-mod, 0.25-0.50" = mod snow, 0.50-0.75" = mod-heavy snow, 0.75+ = heavy snow. Its more realistic. I think 0.75"/3 hrs is a little bit too dramatic for heavy snow, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ummm...what? Special soundings only happen during off hours, such as 18z. Also, if they were to release these "extra balloons" at 12z, the data would be used for the 12z runs. The real question is where would we launch extra balloons from? Its not like you can just launch a balloon from any old place. It needs proper tracking and receiving equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think 0.75"/3 hrs is a little bit too dramatic for heavy snow, no? Oh... well I was thinking 6-hour time steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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