Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 57 mod snow for phl-nyc all the way back to pitt..... hr 60 heavy snow for phl and southern nj...mod snow in nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 .25 - .50 for western NJ, Eastern PA.. .50 - .75 elsewhere.. bit more on eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A band sets up in the GFS right along the Delaware at 60. By 66, most of the precip is over for Philly. Still snowing decently in NYC at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like it's going to be 4-8 from Philly to the northeast through all of the Upton CWA. 2-4 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's not statistically significant. Let's just stop with that meme now. roger that. i mentioned it because as recently as a few days ago DT had made some comment about it. it's my impression the general weenie gives more credence to the off-hour runs than actual mets... but i certainly could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good run. A band of .25-.5 goes past Philly this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 close to .50 for phl.....draw a line down the center of nj to the east is .50+ west of that line is .25+ delmarva is .25+ but might have a bit of mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 it's my impression the general weenie gives more credence to the off-hour runs than actual mets... but i certainly could be wrong. I use them all equally. It was probably true 10 years ago when data assimilation techniques weren't nearly as advanced as they are now. Models have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I use them all equally. It was probably true 10 years ago when data assimilation techniques weren't nearly as advanced as they are now. Models have changed. The only one run of one model that I really have no use for is the 18Z NAM. For some reason, if one model is going to have a wacky run, it's that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 About .5-.6" QPF for NYC on the 18z GFS while LI Twin Forks see .75" QPF. Consensus building for a 6-10" snowfall in the metro area. 18z GFS still not as intense with the precipitation as the 12z ECM, but we'll see what its ensembles show in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It seems the GFS still wants to track this storm east of the ECM in general...I wouldn't be surprised if it tucks in closer to the coast as the Euro shows (and what the 12z NAM displayed) and gets NYC with heavier CCB banding, but at least we're virtually assured of a 6" snowfall at that point with the potential for significantly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The only one run of one model that I really have no use for is the 18Z NAM. For some reason, if one model is going to have a wacky run, it's that one. is there a statistical basis for this assertion, or is it just a feeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 427 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES INTO MON...SO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WITH ONLY FEW-SCT STRATOCU ATOP THE INVERSION...AND MIXING BELOW RESULTING IN ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM ONTARIO MON NIGHT. UNDERCUT COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS I NORMALLY WOULD FOR SNOW COVERED AREAS...SINCE A 15-20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD. WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It seems the GFS still wants to track this storm east of the ECM in general...I wouldn't be surprised if it tucks in closer to the coast as the Euro shows (and what the 12z NAM displayed) and gets NYC with heavier CCB banding, but at least we're virtually assured of a 6" snowfall at that point with the potential for significantly more. i feel like with today's models coming in, there is sort of a consensus (maybe aside from the 12z NAM) that we are looking at a moderate snowstorm, maybe 4-6 in PHL, 8-10 in NYC......those might even be a little on the high end. Out of all the storms recently, this, to me at least, seems to have more model agreement as we get within 48 horus or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It seems the GFS still wants to track this storm east of the ECM in general...I wouldn't be surprised if it tucks in closer to the coast as the Euro shows (and what the 12z NAM displayed) and gets NYC with heavier CCB banding, but at least we're virtually assured of a 6" snowfall at that point with the potential for significantly more. It seems that even though the GFS is stronger this run with the sfc low, the S/W energy is faster and the low books it out of here. The 700mb low also doesn't close until it's pretty much out of here, so SNE gets in on the heavier banding that gets them to 1"+, but we get mostly heavier overrunning snow as the coastal bombs. Our storm is maybe 12 hours long tops on this run. The Euro also sped the storm up but the fast deepening made up for it. It's the difference IMO between a 5-10 and maybe 10-15" event for most of the area. Still a high end moderate to major event but nothing huge if it keeps speeding up. It's not a huge concern of me right now, but hopefully the fast/progressive trend stops because we need the storm to be slow enough to allow the energy to catch up to it and cause the CCB to form in time. Right now it's a very close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 close to .50 for phl.....draw a line down the center of nj to the east is .50+ west of that line is .25+ delmarva is .25+ but might have a bit of mixing issues Appreciated Allsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does this remind anyone of that december 9 2005 bomb? Got 6" out of that overnight. It was in an out like a lightning bolt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Does this remind anyone of that december 9 2005 bomb? Got 6" out of that overnight. It was in an out like a lightning bolt. no not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GGEM ensemble mean is west and stronger than the op run. The ensemble mean shows .50-.75 for NYC while the op run showed .25-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 no not at all Hmm. Myabe im just thinking of that storm because of the really short duration. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS EnSembles show .75-1 QPF for City(read on another board) and 50.75 back Further West into NJ.. Not bad Still think we haven't seen the Max QPF run(Judging by the Moisture Plume down South) with this storm which could happen tonight or Tomorrow morning. that is the big player as of now for the big snows. the gfs i dont think is taking the huge moisture plume right now heading into the southern stream. the european i believe has the right idea and has amped up its qpf. the 0z runs of the gfs and the euro are going to be crucial tonight in taking in the additional moisture into the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Will the NYC/LI/Jersey shore areas have mixing issues with this scenario? thats all going to depend on how quick the coastal low bombs out and crashes the rain/snow line offshore the weaker the storm the more likely mixing or changeover to rain in the coastal areas. upton has discounted the gfs weak solution that depicted that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hopefully Upton is correct, and not the gfs. thats all going to depend on how quick the coastal low bombs out and crashes the rain/snow line offshore the weaker the storm the more likely mixing or changeover to rain in the coastal areas. upton has discounted the gfs weak solution that depicted that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pretty agressive forecast by upton. I think this storm looks like a "typical" 6-10 inch miller b where sne does better than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 that is the big player as of now for the big snows. the gfs i dont think is taking the huge moisture plume right now heading into the southern stream. the european i believe has the right idea and has amped up its qpf. the 0z runs of the gfs and the euro are going to be crucial tonight in taking in the additional moisture into the forecast Where do these ideas come from? The 12z GFS actually has more moisture in the low levels tomorrow morning than the European does. The European dumps more QPF simply because it has a stronger low and more forcing for vertical ascent. That's it. The stronger the surface low gets (and associated northern stream dynamics aloft), the more QPF there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 thats all going to depend on how quick the coastal low bombs out and crashes the rain/snow line offshore the weaker the storm the more likely mixing or changeover to rain in the coastal areas. upton has discounted the gfs weak solution that depicted that solution. The weaker solutions are going to be colder, though, like the GFS; anytime the low is further east, it's going to keep the mix line offshore. You can see that JFK is clearly all snow at 60 hours on the 18z GFS, and they're one of the warmest locations in this storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hopefully Upton is correct, and not the gfs. the european has been the more consistent model here while the gfs has been inconsistent and too warm. upton i think is making the right call with the european currently, liable to change though, personally i think the qpf is going to increase signifigantly from here with the models with the introduction of gulf/stj moisture and it being incorporated into the next model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 regardless, this system has been modelled pretty darn well .. also, plenty of long and medium range forecasters called it as well. hats off to them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where do these ideas come from? The 12z GFS actually has more moisture in the low levels tomorrow morning than the European does. The European dumps more QPF simply because it has a stronger low and more forcing for vertical ascent. That's it. The stronger the surface low gets, the more QPF there will be. im just trying to understand the storm, thanks for the correction though appreciate it am19psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcgin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where do these ideas come from? The 12z GFS actually has more moisture in the low levels tomorrow morning than the European does. The European dumps more QPF simply because it has a stronger low and more forcing for vertical ascent. That's it. The stronger the surface low gets (and associated northern stream dynamics aloft), the more QPF there will be. AHH, not exactly so...what about when the low becomes vertically stacked?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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