NJwinter23 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah, Tim. It would crazy to expect the Boxing Day totals with this, the dynamics and those crazy bands simply aren't there with this one. I am going to say 8-12" for most of the NYC metro area. That's a very good event regardless. While the rest of your post is fine, and this wont drop to 962mb, I wouldnt say the bolded just yet. It will likely be a shorter duration that caps the totals, but the dynamics with this could be nuts as soon as that coastal bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Allsnow has Euro access and can give the data to the NYC area, while Tombo if he's still not wasted from the game, can provide the info for the PHL area. Most of the data is free and we all access it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 While the rest of your post is fine, and this wont drop to 962mb, I wouldnt say the bolded just yet. It will likely be a shorter duration that caps the totals, but the dynamics with this could be nuts as soon as that coastal bombs out. Yeah, I was going to post the same reply. There will be bands, but I'd bet they're more likely to form over SNE rather than our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 May wait until tomorrow for the split but it does bring up a good idea. A bunch of model links for everyone to access data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 May wait until tomorrow for the split but it does bring up a good idea. A bunch of model links for everyone to access data. You guys say split the threads up to reduce the IMBY posts. Isn't that what the Banter thread is supposed to be for? I thought splitting up the threads, was only supposed to be for a special event like the Norlun event? We're all going to be affected by this storm, just not as much as somewhere like SNE. IMO we shouldn't be split up, just the IMBY posts be cracked down on even more. Storm Mode is supposed to crack down on them, and the rules should be enforced as such. Just stating my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I feel that the thread should be split I understand it may make people work a little bit but its better than hearing people say oh a direct hit only to find out later they are talking about nyc and you are from SNJ. Maybe there should be a thread for the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 So jumping around a little from weather forum to weather forum, I see some people say lets nowcast, and they have been saying it looks like the southern storm is strong then predicted by any models, also they say the storms may be joining wont no till tonight. I like this board the best because of the mets and everyone. Keep up the good work tons of great info on this forum. I just wanted to see what you guys think of what they are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 THE GFS IS RUNNING! Someone go catch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Allsnow has Euro access and can give the data to the NYC area, while Tombo if he's still not wasted from the game, can provide the info for the PHL area. Most of the data is free and we all access it. sounds good....i will be around for it tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks like Upton is going with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 THE GFS IS RUNNING! Someone go catch it! Hopefully it's not taking our snowstorm with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Latest HPC QPF snippet.. THEN ON WED... QPF WILL BECOME QUITE HEAVY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE SYSTEM PHASES RAPIDLY. HPC GENERALLY TRIED TO FOLLOW A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF... GFS AND PSEUDO BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR QPF FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR MORE ON THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACT... PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFHSD. Btw, this was as of 347 pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You guys say split the threads up to reduce the IMBY posts. Isn't that what the Banter thread is supposed to be for? I thought splitting up the threads, was only supposed to be for a special event like the Norlun event? We're all going to be affected by this storm, just not as much as somewhere like SNE. IMO we shouldn't be split up, just the IMBY posts be cracked down on even more. Storm Mode is supposed to crack down on them, and the rules should be enforced as such. Just stating my opinion. i strongly agree with this, i like reading the NYC posters and mets too....it is bad enough we are in regions and this has lead to losing the input of people like wes, who rightfully sticks to the midatlantic thread....id hate to be limited to just PHL people (even though we have some great mets, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Upton Disco: FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM...THE SECOND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA IN JUST A LITTLE OVER TWO WEEKS AND THE THIRD FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT! SIDED WITH A 12Z NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE NASCENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SAT WV IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC LEAF AND COMMA HEAD...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ALREADY TAKING PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM NEAR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE S OF MEXICO...AND ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS. PROLIFIC LIGHTNING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INDICATIVE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAN MOST MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH MAY FORCE AN EVENTUAL FARTHER W LOW TRACK...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS. EVEN SO...STRONG ISALLOBARIC N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY RAPID PRESSURE FALLS AS THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES FROM NE OF HATTERAS TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK AND 40N/70W TUE NIGHT BY 12Z WED SHOULD KEEP PRECIP ALL SNOW OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH ONLY THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND STILL IN QUESTION. WEAKER/LESS WET GFS SFC SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR LESS OF AN ISALLOBARIC LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT AND THEREFORE MORE ONSHORE AND BLYR WARMING...WITH MIXED PRECIP TUE NIGHT ALL THE WAY BACK TO COASTAL CT AND ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER LONG ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN REJECTED ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GFS WAS ALSO TOO WARM IN COASTAL SECTIONS FOR THE LATE DECEMBER BLIZZARD. WINDS COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN NYC AND COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THEY WILL COINCIDE WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO PRODUCE TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WITH THE LATE DECEMBER STORM. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES IS RUNNING HIGH...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH GREATER TOTALS WHERE MESOSCALE BANDING SETS UP...MUCH TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. HWO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCHES COULD BE RAISED OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSES E OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WED...TROUGHING LAGGING BEHIND COULD ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST INTO WED AFTERNOON...WHILE A BLUSTERY NW WIND CONTINUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You guys say split the threads up to reduce the IMBY posts. Isn't that what the Banter thread is supposed to be for? I thought splitting up the threads, was only supposed to be for a special event like the Norlun event? We're all going to be affected by this storm, just not as much as somewhere like SNE. IMO we shouldn't be split up, just the IMBY posts be cracked down on even more. Storm Mode is supposed to crack down on them, and the rules should be enforced as such. Just stating my opinion. We split them up to reduce clutter and allow for some IMBY posts. When it gets within a couple days of an event, IMBY posts will happen no matter what. After the event it goes back to one thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Mt. Holly's AFD. .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --IF MODELING REMAINS SIMILAR CHANCES ARE PRETTY HIGH THAT WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY FOR ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA. THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ON MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN. FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY HIGH AND WHILE THE LAKE EFFECT IS NOT DONE, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PRETTY LOW. SO NO FLURRIES FOR FAR NORTH AND WE WILL GO OPTIM ABOUT THE SC MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH ALSO. WHAT SHOULD START DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON IS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. AT LEAST FOR A WHILE IT WILL BE FIGHTING A STRENGTHENING RIDGE. WHILE IT SHOULD BE BRISK ON MONDAY, PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER THAN TODAY. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONFIDENCE ABOUT MIN TEMPS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS TEMPS COULD TANK IN THE EVENING BEFORE THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE. WE DID LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE AS A HEDGE. MODEL TREND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER ABOUT THE PCPN ARRIVAL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOWEST IN DELMARVA, THE INCIPIENT AIR MASS WILL BE DRY IN PLACE AND SHOULD EVAPORATE SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE LEADING SNOW. WHILE THE MODELING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SPEAKING MORE CLUSTERED THAN IT WAS WITH THE BOXING DAY STORM, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE DOUBLE BARREL LOWS, BOTH WHICH HAVE AN EFFECT ON BOTH PTYPE AND FINAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, FORECAST CONFIDENCE SHOULD BE VIEWED THE HIGHEST IN THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONE STRIPS. AS FOR TRACK, AS STATED BEFORE, THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET WERE WIDE RIGHT ON 12/26. THE WRF-NMM REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE SREF MEAN. SO WE HAVE DECIDED UPON A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE AS TO TRACK. AS PER INTENSIFICATION, THAT IS A TOUGHER DECISION TO MAKE. IF THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE AVOIDED ITS SC COASTAL WATERS FLASH POINT WHERE ITS OVERINTENSIFIED LOWS ON A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS (ITS FCST SFC L.I. IS LESS THAN ZERO) WE MIGHT HAVE LEANED MORE ITS WAY. ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN ITS SFC POSN OFF THE SC COAST AT 12Z TUE WITH MUCH MORE NOISE (UNCERTAINTY) NE OF THE SYSTEM. THE WEDNESDAY 12Z OP POSN IS TOWARD THE SW OF THE ENSEMBLE POSNS, BUT BETTER CENTERED THAN TUE MRNG. UNTIL OTHER MODELS MATCH ITS SC COASTAL WATERS INTENSITY WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON ITS SOLUTION. THE INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO IS TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MAKES IT TO THE COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD AT 12Z SO NO EARLY GATE WINNER THERE. WE HAVE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE IN SFC PRESSURE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. LASTLY THERE ARE THE THERMAL FIELDS. ITS A BIT WORRISOME WHEN THERE IS A CLOSE 850MB CLOSED LOW WEST OF YOUR AREA AND SNOW IS EXPECTED. MODELING IS OFTEN POOR AT CAPTURING WARM AIR ABOVE 850MB. SO FAR THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 850MB. IN SPITE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND WRF-NMM POSN THEIR THERMAL FIELDS BELOW 850MB ARE PRETTY SIMILAR. EVEN THE ECMWF BRINGS FCST WET BULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING TO THE NJ SHORE. THE FORMER PAIR SUGGEST SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIGHT MIX IN ALONG THE COAST. ALSO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE COAST LOSE MOISTURE ABOVE -10C (TU WES JUNKER) WHICH IMPLIES THE POSSIBILITY OF NO ICE IN CLOUDS FOR SNOW. HENCE FOR NOW WE KEPT THE MENTION OF MIXED PCPN GOING IN THE COASTAL STRIP. WE MIGHT BE A TAD EARLY STARTING IT IN DELAWARE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FOR IT TO REACH THE GROUND NORTH, BUT THE FORECAST OMEGA IS PRETTY STRONG. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POSSIBILITY OF ANY MIXING DURING TUESDAY EVENING. LIKE BOXING DAY, THE BEST FORECAST TROWAL, THETA E RIDGING AND MID LVL QVEC CONV IS EAST IN OUR CWA AND INTENSIFIES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHERN NJ. THE STRONG FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE DONE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF LEFTOVER SNOW IN THE NORTH. THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS TRAILING TROF WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AND WE KEPT THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND OR FLURRIES GOING. AS OF TODAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN 12/26 AND THIS WOULD IMPLY LESS WINDS THAN 12/27, STILL PBLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WHERE SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN DO NOT OCCUR.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We split them up to reduce clutter and allow for some IMBY posts. When it gets within a couple days of an event, IMBY posts will happen no matter what. Yep, you can't prevent it..just organize it the best you can. Splitting into PHL vs NYC is also a good idea when one area may significantly outperform the other. We don't need squabbling cluttering discussion threads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yep, you can't prevent it..just organize it the best you can. Splitting into PHL vs NYC is also a good idea when one area may significantly outperform the other. We don't need squabbling cluttering discussion threads... Lets see how this GFS run goes. If people post quality discussion, a split would be delayed. If it's all "HOWMUCHFORME GFS SLAMS ME!" then it would happen sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 15z SREF Plumes have a mean of 4" for PHL with most of the members falling between 2-6". For NYC, the mean is 5" with most of the members falling between 3-7". Best case from the SREF is 15" in NYC and 11" in PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Mt. Holly's AFD. Tony wrote it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The northern stream is def digging more this run..Dont know if it will have a significant impact though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 GFS is stronger with the coastal through 36 1024 on the 12z GFS 1016 on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z GFS is a few mb deeper with the sfc low off the SE Coast through 42. That should generally be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Although the low off the SE looks more organized on the 18z, heights are significantly lower compared to 12z and the vort in the midwest is stronger, arguing for a stronger primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Although the low off the SE looks more organized on the 18z, heights are significantly lower compared to 12z and the vort in the midwest is stronger, arguing for a stronger primary. The coastal storm is the same strength as the primary at hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hr 54 mod snow up to phl and light snow up to nyc...low 75 miles east of norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run is slightly faster up the coast through 54. This is going to be kinda meh for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 it's been noted previously the 18z GFS is the statistically the worst performing model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 it's been noted previously the 18z GFS is the statistically the worst performing model run. It's not statistically significant. Let's just stop with that meme now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 By 60, the surface low is a smidge farther NE from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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