WintersGrasp Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As with our big blizzard and many events...as far as getting these 15-20" amounts. They are never really out of the question with a juicy system, as you said. If the system comes together, many factors come in to play but 15" amounts are NOT hard to get. They even got that in CT with the norlun trough event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 love how everyone loves and hugs the NAM when it shows big stuff and then when it does not stuff about how the 18z run is to be ignored and its been flip flopping, if this run came in line with previous runs everyone would be applauding and saying how its consistent with the euro. Just be objective about these runs not just when it shows what you want. For this storm we are in the game, the question is how much. Still alot of waffling on the models between a 8-12 incher and a 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The fact that the ECM has so much QPF is a warning siren for me...it is usually paltry at this range with precip. When the ECM is throwing out that much QPF, you know we're talking about a very juicy system with a STJ/Gulf connection and lots of dynamics. That's why some people are calling for 12-18" in NYC metro, and not unreasonably in my mind. I'm still going a bit more conservative and thinking 8-12" is a nice forecast as of now, but with time to update. thats very true the ecm usually takes a little bit to increase qpf but the tsp of the subtropical jet and the gulf and the atlantic eventually is gonna certainly increase the snowfall totals when this storm gets really cranking. the nam should not be considered as reliable model for this storm as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 while the nam only has around .5 for NYC metro as Nzucker said it would be on the colder side of things with better ratios and snow would still be plentiful albeit in the 6-10 range as opposed to 12-18 the 12z NAM was painting, that is, if it is correct. Which I doubt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The fact that the ECM has so much QPF is a warning siren for me...it is usually paltry at this range with precip. When the ECM is throwing out that much QPF, you know we're talking about a very juicy system with a STJ/Gulf connection and lots of dynamics. That's why some people are calling for 12-18" in NYC metro, and not unreasonably in my mind. I'm still going a bit more conservative and thinking 8-12" is a nice forecast as of now, but with time to update. The funny thing is that the NAM has a very similar 500mb to the last 2 runs and the Euro, but has a different solution. Who knows, this could be a feedback issue again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 while the nam only has around .5 for NYC metro as Nzucker said it would be on the colder side of things with better ratios and snow would still be plentiful albeit in the 6-10 range as opposed to 12-18 the 12z NAM was painting, that is, if it is correct. Which I doubt... nam does not reach .5 in nyc metro... its .25 to .50 so unless we had incredible ratios i think you are looking at a 3-6 event with possibility of 8 inches the farthest east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Exactly...the NAM isn't the model for synoptic evolution of storms...you only start looking seriously at the NAM when you're within 36 hours to try to figure out banding/ratios/p-type. People are freaking out for nothing. I have been saying this for the past two days about how bad the NAM is at this range, but no one seems to listen. i thought the NAM was pretty good inside 48 hours but i didn't know it was not good with "storm evolution" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nam doesn't have .50" near NYC. As earthlight said, Suffolk County is the .50" line. NAM is probably .35" for NYC. 3"-5" tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My early call for NYC would be 6 to 10. Too early and need to see other models go in the direction of Euro before going with much higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Exactly...the NAM isn't the model for synoptic evolution of storms...you only start looking seriously at the NAM when you're within 36 hours to try to figure out banding/ratios/p-type. People are freaking out for nothing. I have been saying this for the past two days about how bad the NAM is at this range, but no one seems to listen. Nobody is freaking out, I am just stating the facts. The NAM is not as amplified as it's 12z run, and doesn't give NYC .5" liquid. There's nothing else to it. I never said anything about how I think the storm will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't see people flip flopping. I think hpc and the boards prefered solution is the euro. Very consistant for many runs in a row now.....nam has been flipping all over the place per usual this season. Its a good model inside 48hrs to pinpoint heaviest precip-can and probably should b discounted in the timeframe and that's been true all yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Bastardi 3 PM UPDATE - "In the big cities.. 3-6 around DC, and toward BWI, increasing to 6-12 PHL and then averaging 12 around NYC with local amounts 18. The -8 and -3 isotherms will play ratio games with this storm and the western cut off wont be as sharp, though I dont think the city will get the amount they did with the blizzard, Once to PVD and Boston look out.. 12-18 locally 24.. Its a classic. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM at 12z was a huge western outlier, somewhere between the GFS and the EURO seems good right now. 3-6 would be my best guess for NYC this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 nam does not reach .5 in nyc metro... its .25 to .50 so unless we had incredible ratios i think you are looking at a 3-6 event with possibility of 8 inches the farthest east NYC gets about .45" QPF on the 18z NAM; ratios are going to approach 15:1 if the low is that far offshore and NYC gets into good banding, so we're probably talking about a 6-8" event with higher amounts in eastern LI and SNE. This is irrelevant anyway since the NAM is a sucky model. i thought the NAM was pretty good inside 48 hours but i didn't know it was not good with "storm evolution" The NAM often has weird tracks to surface lows at this range, and it likes to alternate between insane amounts of QPF and a total dryslot...it's not to be used for synoptic forecasting, and this system is more than 48 hours away anyway. The most important model, right now, is the ECM and its ensembles...which shows a great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I said around 0.5 and I believe bufkit will show roughly .4-.45 and the .5 line is not suffolk cty it looks more like nassau.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM at 12z was a huge western outlier, somewhere between the GFS and the EURO seems good right now. 3-6 would be my best guess for NYC this far out. 3-6? The Euro and GFS both have .75"+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 3-6? The Euro and GFS both have .75"+ for NYC. We are 2+ days away, plenty of time to adjust up and down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You just seem to be putting a lot of faith in NAM/SREF guidance, which doesn't seem wise at this range. I'm plenty happen to forecast using a blend of the ECM, ECM ENS, and GFS...all of these show 6-12" for NYC, which is the range expected for this type of Miller B. I'm just surprised you appear so worried about what looks to be a good snowstorm. Of course, being further SW in NJ, perhaps you're not in as ideal a position as those of us who live north of the City. I never said that..in fact last night when I did a forecast I completely discounted the NAM solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The HPC 3 Day heavy snowfall risks are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 OK then...have you put out a forecast map yet, John? No, it's way too early for that right now. If somebody held a gun to my head I would say a general 4-8" with 8-12" north and east of the city and higher amounts somewhere in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC is going nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 No, it's way too early for that right now. If somebody held a gun to my head I would say a general 4-8" with 8-12" north and east of the city and higher amounts somewhere in SNE. Sounds like a very reasonable call. I'm considering making a map after the 0z ECM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Oh, the great NAM which depicted Philly getting .40 QPF from Saturdays storm 18 hours out, 6 hours later it showed .1....This model has struggled all year. As you can see just minor changes on how deep the shortwave in the midwest digs determines how fast this storm develops and how west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I never said that..in fact last night when I did a forecast I completely discounted the NAM solution yeah it seem the hpc and mt holly discounted it also...i dont understand why people put so much stock into it outside 48 hrs.......looks like a nice warnning snowfall coming....not going to be a boxing day storm...but a very good storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah it seem the hpc and mt holly discounted it also...i dont understand why people put so much stock into it outside 48 hrs.......looks like a nice warnning snowfall coming....not going to be a boxing day storm...but a very good storm.... Yeah, Tim. It would crazy to expect the Boxing Day totals with this, the dynamics and those crazy bands simply aren't there with this one. I am going to say 8-12" for most of the NYC metro area. That's a very good event regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm seeing the posts are getting imbyish, so when we reach 1,000 replies, I may split it back up into seperate regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC is going nuts well them going with the european is def a good move it has been very consistent with track, strength and it enhances the qpf as well when it noticed the subtropical jet influence. i think its a good move by them dont you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 HPC is going nuts Wow...being over 48 hours out thats impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm seeing the posts are getting imbyish, so when we reach 1,000 replies, I may split it back up into seperate regions. hmm then we have to go back and forth again from one thread to the other when the model runs come out for the play by play due to the fact that nobody uses the general forum anymore for that. So as long as everyone follows the 'storm mode' rules and it is enforced by the mods, then we shouldn't have an issue keeping the combined thread like this. Makes it much easier to follow along. Thanks Rib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm seeing the posts are getting imbyish, so when we reach 1,000 replies, I may split it back up into seperate regions. Well first off, weather is very geographically oriented, so it's only natural for the IMBY posts. I don't think you will ever really eliminate them unless you ban 90% of the membership. Second, as we get closer to the actual event, it seems to be clear that while there won't be as severe a western gradient with this storm, the winners are once again likely going to be NNJ, NYC, and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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