famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's what seems to be a better description of the QPF field on the 12Z EC: 0.50" line runs from ILG to BGM. More east, less west. 0.75" line runs from WWD to FWN. More east, less west. 1.00" line runs from MJX to POU. More east, less west. 1.25" line is near FRG. More east, less west. 1.50" line is near ISP. More east, less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My first instinct is 5"-8" for Philly, 8-12" for NYC and the Shore. I'm probably 3-6 for Philly, 6-10 for NYC and the shore. Splitting hairs a little bit, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wish on the SREF maps on NCEP, they would have a total precip. map for the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd back off those totals a little bit... u like bustin my chops huh? lol.... im making the 6-10" swatch my "call", wudnt exactly call it that cuz i dont know much, but whats yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The SREF's are very, very wet for this range. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm probably 3-6 for Philly, 6-10 for NYC and the shore. Splitting hairs a little bit, I know. Looks like a good blend from the 12Z suite, everyone wants more for their backyard but good forecast are based in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastBravest Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How reliable is the Buffkit model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Developing the CCB over the area at 69 hours, too. Pretty cool. Good stuff...and trending better. This is 0.50"+ in 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm probably 3-6 for Philly, 6-10 for NYC and the shore. Splitting hairs a little bit, I know. lol....so me saying PHIL to NYC corridor 6-10" should be backed off? one of us is gonna bust .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I wish on the SREF maps on NCEP, they would have a total precip. map for the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 How reliable is the Buffkit model? BUFKIT is just a tool to display model output in soundings and text data. So BUFKIT will display NAM, GFS, etc data for whatever station you choose..like KEWR for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The SREF's are very, very wet for this range. Wow. John, Looks alot like 12/26 Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 John, Looks alot like 12/26 Rossi less qpf and its a coastal xfer/redevelopment. but its hitting pretty much the same areas. ps - love your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 12z euro ensemble mean has a low just inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro ensembles are good...similar to the OP. Track is inside the BM at 72. Compared to last nights 00z Ensembles they are further southwest with the coastal development..and hence have more QPF over the region as the CCB develops faster. Total QPF would probably be similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 lol....so me saying PHIL to NYC corridor 6-10" should be backed off? one of us is gonna bust .. Looking at the latest Data and Trends I think 3-6 will BUST LOW.. 6-10 might be a better call but if I was a Forecaster would not be making ANY final calls till at least this time tomorrow as we Know things can change in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastBravest Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I was just looking at the Nam 12z run just wondering if the ratios could get that high. Seems like from what I'm reading amounts would be a lot lower. Almost 3 inches in a hour between 0600 and 0700. BUFKIT is just a tool to display model output in soundings and text data. So BUFKIT will display NAM, GFS, etc data for whatever station you choose..like KEWR for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here's what seems to be a better description of the QPF field on the 12Z EC: 0.75" line runs from WWD to FWN. More east, less west. where is FWN? i found WWD cape may. cant find FWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro ensembles are good...similar to the OP. Track is inside the BM at 72. Compared to last nights 00z Ensembles they are further southwest with the coastal development..and hence have more QPF over the region as the CCB develops faster. Total QPF would probably be similar to the OP. Interestingly, there are about 7-10 members that are way right and the rest line up with op almost perfectly or just a hair west. EDIT: And the ones that are west are pretty deep. That's why you see the mean line up almost perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 where is FWN? i found WWD cape may. cant find FWN Sussex County Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 18z NAM looks like its going to come in with another different solution now through 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 where is FWN? i found WWD cape may. cant find FWN Sussex Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Interestingly, there are about 7-10 members that are way right and the rest line up with op almost perfectly or just a hair west. EDIT: And the ones that are west are pretty deep. That's why you see the mean line up almost perfectly. Q- How many ensemble members make up the Euro Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Q- How many ensemble members make up the Euro Ensembles? 50 perturbations + the operational run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Q- How many ensemble members make up the Euro Ensembles? 51 total including the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Thanks for this data - makes for an easily visualized (and estimated) dump. Ray, or anyone, is this particular QPF field considered to be a tight gradient for a storm of this nature? What kind of changes, if any, do these QPF fields have a history of undergoing in the final 48hrs.? Here's what seems to be a better description of the QPF field on the 12Z EC: 0.50" line runs from ILG to BGM. More east, less west. 0.75" line runs from WWD to FWN. More east, less west. 1.00" line runs from MJX to POU. More east, less west. 1.25" line is near FRG. More east, less west. 1.50" line is near ISP. More east, less west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That is impressive....would be nice if that could hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sussex County Airport. thanks! this site didnt have it. http://www.world-airport-codes.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 50 perturbations + the operational run 51 total including the OP Thanks guys.. 7 members going to the right doesn't sound like a major anomaly then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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